Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newhalen, AK

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Sunrise 9:36AMSunset 4:46PM Saturday January 23, 2021 7:13 AM AKST (16:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 4:40AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ185 Saint Matthew Island Waters- 417 Am Akst Sat Jan 23 2021
.heavy freezing spray warning today...
.gale warning Sunday...
Today..N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt E of saint matthew island...e 25 kt W of saint matthew island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
Sun night..E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
Mon..NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
Tue..NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
Wed..E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 24 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newhalen, AK
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location: 59.56, -154.94     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 231449 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 549 AM AKST Sat Jan 23 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A complex low centered over the Eastern Bering continues to drift slowly eastwards this morning as its well-defined frontal wave arcs into much of the mainland alaska along an axis from the Seward Peninsula to the southern Gulf. The cloud shield and associated precip along and ahead of the front display a sharp back edge on infrared satellite imagery, and this also marks the abrupt shift from southeast to more westerly flow as the wave/boundary crawls slowly northeast. The front is slowing down to the point of becoming nearly stationary across Southwest AK as it encounters resistance from the upstream ridge that the broader trough is helping to erode. An inflection point in the front is also visible just north of Kodiak Island within the mid to upper level cloud deck. Recent ASCAT passes suggest a new surface low is just beginning to form in this vicinity, and this new feature will become quite an item of interest for the short term forecast across Southcentral during the rest of the weekend.

Across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, small craft to gale force winds are wrapping around the south side of the low now located just east of the Pribilofs. This low still harbors a triad of smaller centers in the far Eastern Bering, but all three of them should weaken along with the synoptic low with the upper level jet now well south and east of the stacked circulation. The next compact but comparatively more intense low is now approaching the far Western Aleutians from the south with up to storm force winds in tow, mainly south of the low's center.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are unfortunately still having great difficulty locking in on the evolution of the pattern over the Gulf and across Southcentral over the next 24 to 48 hours. All solutions but the GFS have wavered back and forth on the track of the surface low now forming near Kodiak Island. The GFS has consistently shown a more south track for the low compared to other solutions. It continues to show a more consolidated/deepened center moving northeast, then stopping just short of the PWS tonight, then accelerating southeast on Sunday along with the developing upper level low closing off aloft. The cross-barrier flow and downslope drying north of this stronger and more south tracking low would be unfavorable for snow over the Mat-Su Valleys until late tonight into Sun morning. By tonight, most models still show a period of snow for the area as flow flips from southeast to northwest, with a subtle northerly wave sweeping across the Mat-Su Valleys just behind the departing low that will then be moving away from us over the eastern Gulf. There continues to be much higher confidence with better model agreement for this second round of snow tonight into Sunday for the Anchorage bowl and Matanuska Valley region.

For the west, models remain well on track with the next low moving across the western Bering/Aleutians on Sunday to Monday, although some divergence appears for the low track on Monday and Tuesday as the low weakens and a ridge builds in behind the then weakening and occluded center. Models continue to show fairly good agreement for a much stronger and larger system to impact the Western Bering/Aleutians by Tuesday and Wednesday. A widespread gale to storm force wind field is looking increasingly likely for this low with this model cycle.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will continue through late this morning, then expect ceilings to decrease to MVFR by midday. Snow could begin as early as this afternoon and evening, however there is high uncertainty with the track of a low in the Gulf, and this uncertainty will affect the start time for the snowfall event. Currently have the snow in the TAF beginning late this afternoon with MVFR visibility, but it's possible we will see most or all the more impactful snow delayed until late tonight when there is higher confidence for MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings with somewhat heavier snow. Expect some improvement in conditions up to MVFR early on Sunday morning as the snowfall rates begin to diminish.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Low pressure over the Barren Islands this morning will move northeast along the eastern Kenai Peninsula coast today. Precipitation associated with this system is already filling in over the northern Gulf and is spreading northwest across the Kenai Peninsula and southern Susitna Valley. Temperatures today will remain in the middle to upper 30s along the coast, allowing the precipitation to fall as rain from Homer to Seward and Whittier. Farther inland, slightly cooler temperatures will lend to areas of light snow or a mix of rain and snow. Southeasterly gap winds will also be quite gusty today, especially along Turnagain Arm and across the Matanuska Valley. A stout cross-barrier flow ahead of the surface low will also act to limit precipitation through the early afternoon hours for locations in the lee of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Challenges to the forecast arise beginning later this afternoon as models continue to struggle with just how far north the surface feature and associated upper-level track. Yesterday, the trend was for the low to lift toward western Prince William Sound. This would shut off the cross-barrier flow and allow snow to develop from Kenai north to Talkeetna. Recent model trends have shifted a bit farther south, and as a result, this potentially holds off the development of snow into the evening and overnight hours. With uncertainty in the exact track, there is also uncertainty in the position of a deformation band trailing the surface feature. This band of potentially heavier snow currently looks to set up somewhere over the western Kenai and extend northward over the southern Susitna. This would keep the heaviest snow away from the Anchorage Bowl and Mat Valley. Any shift in the position of these features, however, would lend to changes in the snow amounts.

Another complicating factor is a secondary upper-level wave dropping south from interior Alaska overnight Saturday through Sunday. This wave will help enhance snowfall from the Susitna Valley south to the Kenai Peninsula as both moisture remains in place in the mid levels of the atmosphere and colder air advects in from the west. Again, there are subtle differences in the timing and track of this feature that brings additional uncertainty when it comes to snow totals. Speaking of amounts, the forecast still calls for a general 1 to 3 inches for Anchorage north to Palmer and Talkeetna with perhaps as much a 5 inches heading farther south toward Kenai. Given the westerly flow behind the second upper-level wave, it is also possible for higher snow amounts due to upsloping for higher elevations such as the Anchorage Hillside.

The low in the Gulf will move east on Sunday allowing a north to northwesterly flow to develop. Gusty outflow winds will ramp up from the Barren Island to Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal. Winds will also increase later on Sunday around Valdez and Thompson Pass. Fog is also possible for areas around Cook Inlet overnight Sunday into Monday morning with light winds and diminishing cloud cover.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An interesting weather setup exists today in Southwest AK. A broad surface low in the Eastern Bering is sending cloud cover into coastal Southwest AK. Meanwhile, a decaying front that pushed through coastal AK yesterday is now slowly moving through interior Southwest AK. This front has essentially merged with a deformation band extending northwest from a low located just south of the Kenai Peninsula. This is producing a slow moving band of light snow over interior Southwest. This band will slowly move northeast through the day, dropping a few inches of snow by the time it is done. A shift in the weather pattern is also underway, with cold air advection moving into Southwest Alaska from the west. This is enabling the snow, as the dropping temperatures become enough to switch the precipitation type to snow after some very warm days for Southwest AK. As this band of weather lifts to the northeast, expect temperatures to gradually cool the next couple of days as more cold air spills in.

This pattern shift will also quiet the weather for the next day or so. Sunday night into Monday, the next front will move in from the Bering, bringing another round of precipitation to the Southwest Coast. Recent model guidance indicates this front will hang up along the coastline, meaning inclement weather for coastal areas, with quiet weather inland. Models have also slowed the eastward progression of this front through the Bering, so it is now expected to arrive a bit later than originally forecast. So, timing was also adjusted tonight. Overall, have medium to high confidence in the forecast. Some more adjustments to this next weather system will likely be needed, but it shouldn't be anything major and all else looks to be on track in the forecast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A surface low exists in the Eastern Bering, with the low center right over Nunivak Island. A post frontal trough is moving through the Eastern Aleutians at the base of this low, producing showery activity as it goes. Cold air advection is moving down the backside and around the base of the low, which is producing gale force winds also over the Eastern Aleutians and surrounding waters. The aforementioned low producing this weather has been the main weather player for the Bering over the past couple of days. However, it is at the end of its lifespan. It is slowly filling and will move ashore into Southwest AK later today. Winds will relax and weather will clear as this low exits.

The Bering will not get much of a break (it usually doesn't this time of year) as the next low will be moving into the Western Aleutians later today into tonight. This will be another gale force low, and we did increase the winds tonight to expand the areas of gales. This low will also be different in that it will take more of a westerly track than the previous two storms, affecting more of the Western and Central Bering. This will provide a brief break in the weather for the Eastern Bering. However, while this low moves slowly northeast the next couple of days, a North Pacific low will develop just south of the Eastern Aleutians Sunday night. This low will interact with the low in the Western Bering and is expected to produce a large area of gale force winds across the Aleutians Monday, with even some storm force winds just south of the Eastern Aleutians. Models are in good agreement with this setup, so have medium to high confidence in this forecast. Overall, expect continued active weather for the Bering Sea.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5): Monday through Wednesday.

Gulf of Alaska: Slight model variance, but forecast confidence is good. A low moves across the Southern Gulf through Wed. Widespread southeasterly small craft with areas of gale force winds and waves move across the Gulf through Midday Tuesday. After the low passes, widespread northerly small craft with areas of gale force winds move across the Gulf, diminishing Wed. Northwesterly small craft with some gale force winds run through the Barren Islands late Tue-Wed, diminishing Wed. Wave heights to 20 feet move across the Gulf Tue-Wed, subsiding.

Aleutians/Bering: Slight model variance, but forecast confidence is good. A Western Bering low moves across the Bering through Tue. Widespread westerly small craft with areas of gale force winds and waves move over the Southern Bering and Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula through Tue. Wave heights on the Pacific side to 23 feet, subsiding by Tue. A North Pacific low and front move over the Aleutians and Bering through Wed. Widespread high end gale force with areas of storm force winds and waves spread across the Aleutians and Bering through Wed. Wave heights on the Pacific side 35 feet, Bering side 26 feet over the Western and Central Aleutians and Bering Tue and Wed.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7): Tuesday through Friday.

The long term begins with a broad upper level ridge extending from the North Pacific northward over the eastern Bering and western half of the state. Farther west, models are consistently advertising a deep upper level low in place over the western Aleutians. One conclusion that can be drawn this far out in time is that the interaction of these two features will create a more amplified pattern for the middle of next week. Meanwhile at the surface, the GFS is currently advertising a 946mb low over the western Aleutians with a 1031mb high to the east Tuesday night. The EC solution paints a similar picture with a 949mb low and a 1032mb high at this same time, although there are differences in placement. While there is a high degree of uncertainty in the strengths and locations of these two features, there is increasing confidence for strong winds and high seas along the Aleutian Chain and across much of the Bering on Tuesday. By Wednesday, model solutions suggest the low over the western Bering tracks northward into the central Bering, but rapidly weakens as it loses upper level support. While this low pressure system does not entirely displace the ridge, it does succeed in suppressing it to the south, ultimately allowing for the upper level jet to regain a more zonal orientation across the Aleutian Chain. By late next week, unsettled conditions are likely for Southcentral as remnant systems advect eastward from the Bering, courtesy of the more zonal upper level jet.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning: 119,120,130-132,138,351,352,150,155,165, 170-172,175-178,185,411-413. Heavy Freezing Spray: 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . BB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/KO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK14 mi21 minW 41.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1001.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAIL

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Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Sat -- 04:06 AM AKST     7.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:34 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM AKST     11.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:50 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:14 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:35 PM AKST     3.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.98.58.17.67.57.78.49.510.611.511.911.610.79.47.75.94.43.53.44.15.478.69.6

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Sat -- 04:00 AM AKST     6.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM AKST     11.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:45 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:09 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:29 PM AKST     2.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.18.37.46.66.36.67.58.810.111.311.811.510.59.17.35.43.9333.85.278.79.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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