Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newhalen, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:46AMSunset 4:33PM Sunday January 19, 2020 3:34 AM AKST (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:54AMMoonset 12:12PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ185 Saint Matthew Island Waters- 303 Am Akst Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory through Monday...
Today..S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..SW wind 25 kt E of saint matthew island...w 30 kt W of saint matthew island. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..SW wind 20 kt E of saint matthew island... NW 30 kt W of saint matthew island. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Tue..W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Wed..S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newhalen, AK
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location: 59.56, -154.94     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 191222 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 322 AM AKST Sun Jan 19 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper level low centered over western Russia is dominating the weather pattern across much of Alaska. Scattered rain/snow showers are continuing across the Bering/Aleutians this morning under a weak front. Snow is also presently occurring downstream of the trough axis associated with the aforementioned upper low, with a few inches of accumulation possible in the Bristol Bay region. The upper level pressure gradient over mainland Alaska has significantly decreased over the last few days. As such, outflow gap winds will continue to diminish. Precipitation on the north side of a Gulf low will gradually move into Prince William Sound through this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

As discussed yesterday, model disagreement still exists with regards to the low approaching the western Kenai Peninsula. The GFS is the most notably farther south and slowest of any of the main synoptic models, though cannot be completely discounted. As this is applicable to today's time frame, high-res models can also be examined. These indicate the low moving onshore near Seward Monday morning as does the RGEM, NAM and European models, making this the preferred solution as this time. If this track comes to fruition, accumulating snow would be likely for the Cook Inlet region Monday into early Tuesday.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A surface low over the northwest Gulf will move north today to just south of Prince William Sound by evening. The associated front will move from east to west, bringing increasing winds across the northern Gulf where it will then slowly move east and weaken. Precipitation will also spread westward today, with snow reaching the eastern Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. Snow could be heavy at times on the eastern Kenai through Monday morning with 10 to 20 inches of snow possible, with the highest amounts north of Moose Pass. For areas around Cook Inlet, there will be chances of snow through Monday as most of the moisture stays near the coast. Monday night looks like the best chance of snowfall inland as an upper level trough begins to push toward the area from the southwest. The airmass associated with this system is considerably warmer than what has been sitting over the area for the last few days, with temperatures expected to be in the 20s over Anchorage on Monday. There is the potential for rain mixing in with snow along the Gulf Coast, mainly near Cordova.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A weak band of snow showers situated west of King Salmon will continue to bring show showers for areas from Dillingham to Pilot Point. This band will shift slightly westward as it weakens through the afternoon, bringing a chance of snow showers for Port Heiden. Snow showers will taper off into the evening, leaving most of Southwest Alaska under cold and dry conditions through Monday. The next chance of snow will move in on Monday afternoon as another band of snow showers, associated with an upper level disturbance, tries to set up along the Southwest coast. However, there is still some uncertainty in where it will set up, but inland locations should remain dry through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Snow showers will persist across much of the Bering as a front over the central Bering and Aleutians weakens through this evening. The main feature driving the weather is a low over the northern Bering, which models have come in to better agreement for today. As this feature diminishes by Monday morning, a second low will likely develop through Monday afternoon over the northern Bering. There is still some uncertainty in timing and placement of this second low, but it should remain north of the Pribilofs through Tuesday. Expect snow showers and colder temperatures to move in over the next few days across the Bering and Aleutians.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5. Tue through Thu) .

The primary areas of concern areas during this time period will be along the Aleutian Chain. One system will just track along the south side of the Chain Tuesday into Wednesday. This could bring easterly winds as high as high end gale force, but for now it looks like the strongest winds will stay south of the marine zones. The next system will push towards the Western Aleutians (Zones 177-178) late Wed into Thu. This system looks to bring a healthy swath of gale force winds from the Central to the Western ALeutians.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday).

On Tuesday, zonal flow is expected to exist in the Bering Sea and a diffuse pattern (not much going on) will exist in Southcentral AK. This will change Wednesday as long range guidance continues to show an upper level blocking ridge building from the north Pacific across the AKPEN and into the Bering Sea. An anchoring high will be present by Friday, securing the position of this ridge for the remainder of next week.

This means high pressure for the Bering Sea and cold air over mainland AK. It is possible for deep cold to return to the Copper River Basin late next week with this pattern. Offshore gusty winds will be possible in southwest AK and the western Gulf. Low pressure will be present somewhere in the Gulf of Alaska, but this is one feature guidance is having trouble with. We know a trough will dig south through eastern Alaska into a low in the gulf. However, there is disagreement where this will set up. For now it looks like the eastern Gulf will be impacted by any low pressure setup, but confidence is low with this aspect of the forecast. This pattern shift is something we will be paying close attention to, so expect modifications with the forecast in coming days.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Wind Chill Advisory: 131. MARINE . Gale Warning: 119 120 127. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AP SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . BB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 85 mi34 min NE 15 G 19 21°F 999.2 hPa (-0.6)17°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK14 mi41 minVar 310.00 miFair6°F1°F83%998.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAIL

Wind History from AIL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Sun -- 03:30 AM AKST     4.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM AKST     14.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:10 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:46 PM AKST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:04 PM AKST     11.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.875.44.34.45.67.810.312.614.114.413.411.48.75.83.21.61.22.146.48.910.611.3

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:24 AM AKST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:42 AM AKST     13.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:06 PM AKST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:40 PM AKST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM AKST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:06 PM AKST     11.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.66.64.83.73.85.17.39.71213.513.712.810.98.35.42.91.41.22.24.16.58.910.611.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.