Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pedro Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

A 983 mb low in the western Bering continues to weaken tonight.
This low is promoting continual mostly light snowfall across Southwest Alaska. Steady snow this morning across the Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range has become more showery as cold air moved in from the southwest off of the Bering Sea.
Some areas near Bethel and Dillingham have seen precipitation switch over to a light snow/rain mix, but will likely switch back to snowfall tonight as temperatures decline. Off and on rain/snow shower mix will continue across mainland Southwest through Monday. Most snow accumulation will occur along the Western Alaska Range due to westerly upslope flow enhancement with little additional accumulation elsewhere.

The low in the Bering will be replaced steadily with upper-level energy approaching from the west, and surface lows approaching from the south. Between now and Tuesday, an elongated trough axis will remain stretched from the Southwest coastline to near Adak, promoting ongoing unsettled weather and light precipitation across the region.

By Tuesday, a more organized and widespread push of moisture and stronger winds lifts up from the North Pacific and impacts Adak/Atka, Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan, and the Pribilof Islands with moderate to heavy rain. The moderate to heavy precipitation makes it to mainland Southwest Alaska by late Tuesday afternoon to early Tuesday evening. Precipitation may start as a period of snow along the Kuskokwim Delta/Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday afternoon before changing to rain/snow mix and eventually rain through Tuesday night. The tropical moisture tap shifts eastward from Unalaska/Nikolski/Akutan to over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moderate to heavy rain at times is looking likely from False Pass eastward to Chignik Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, this moisture axis does not look to hang around long as it continues eastward to Kodiak Island by late Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for further forecast updates regarding the development of the next unseasonably strong Bering low for this upcoming workweek.

-CL/DAN

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Unsettled conditions will likely persist across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A low over the southern Bering Sea will move toward Nunivak Island by Thursday morning. South to southwesterly flow with gusts up to 40 mph will move across Kuskokwim Bay/Delta area. Concerns for coastal impacts is low due to shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice floe over the eastern Bering Sea.

The accompanied front from the Bering low will move into the western Gulf of Alaska, drawing with it a relatively deeper surge of moisture. Coastal areas in the northern Gulf and Kodiak Island and higher elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of mixed precipitation to continue, including rain at lower elevations and snow at higher elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some downsloping to the west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement decreases significantly late in the week, though some semblance of a low continues to place a low in the southern Bering Sea with southerly flow persisting into Southcentral. It is probable that our overall pattern will not deviate much from what we are already seeing, however, the details should become clear with the timing of these key wind and precipitation features as we approach the mid to late week timeframe.



AVIATION

PANC...Gusty southeast winds will continue through this afternoon, with peak gusts to around 35 to 40 kts possible until around midnight. VFR conditions will likely prevail as southeasterly flow over the Chugach mountains partially downslopes and evaporates some of the low level moisture; however, expect a period of steady rainfall and MVFR ceilings late this afternoon through early this evening as winds begin to shift more southerly.
Gusty winds continue overnight through Monday afternoon, but should begin to gradually decrease by late Monday.