Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pedro Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA , THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, the patterns over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea are fairly different, with a large low pressure system over the Northern Pacific crossing the Aleutian Chain, and a clear convective pattern over interior Southwest Alaska allowing for fog development earlier this morning into afternoon cumulus. A Flood Warning along the Kuskokwim River near Bethel for ice jam, remains in effect through 9PM tonight, though water levels have crested in Bethel and have been decreasing this afternoon. The low in the Bering will shift eastward, dominating the pattern across Southwestern Alaska and the Bering Sea by Saturday. The northern side of the low has moved over the Pribilof islands, promoting light snowfall with temperatures just above freezing. Elsewhere, this low pressure system is spreading rainfall across the region, and is very well saturated so rainfall rates are moderate-to-heavy along the Alaska Peninsula, lighter further inland. Wind speeds associated with this low, and its attached front, have over- performed along the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, pushing wind speeds near 80 mph in Cold Bay earlier this afternoon. Wind speeds will not be as strong as the front moves over the Southwest coastline, but may still reach 60 to 70 mph along the Western Capes of Southwest. Winds further inland, near Bethel and Dillingham, will similarly not be as strong.

Influence from this strong low pressure system will likely persist through the weekend into early next week, promoting light rainshowers across Southwest Alaska, the Pribilofs, Alaska Peninsula, and the majority of the Aleutian Chain. By Monday afternoon, a new low pressure system looks to approach the Alaska Peninsula/Eastern Aleutians, bringing another round of gusty southeasterly winds and rainfall.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska.

Within the larger-scale cyclonic flow, a series of shortwaves will continue to rotate northward into southern Alaska through early next week. Winds are expected to increase again across the western and northern Gulf. The eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound look to see another round of heavier precipitation on Tuesday, while lighter but more widespread precipitation spreads across the remainder of the northern Gulf coast and into Southwest Alaska.

By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka, though model guidance remains split on its track. The European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as this system and its associated front progress eastward through Friday.

LM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF package.
Expect light westerly to southerly winds this afternoon with an occasional gusts around 15 mph. Southerly winds will increase for a time tonight, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph, before briefly diminishing during the overnight and early Saturday morning. Strong southeasterly winds will then redevelop by late Saturday morning as a frontal system approached from the west.
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 45 mph are possible from around 10 AM through around 10 PM Saturday. Winds are then expected to quickly turn northerly and diminish as the southeasterly winds coming out of Turnagain Arm are pulled down Cook Inlet. This expected wind shift Saturday night will likely coincide with a period of continued gusty southeasterly winds aloft over the Anchorage Hillside, resulting in the potential for LLWS late Saturday night into early Sunday morning before the winds aloft weaken and become more northeasterly.

-TM