Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pedro Bay, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A North Pacific low skirting south of the Aleutian Chain pushes its front from the western/central Aleutians, where it is producing easterly gales and light to moderate rain, north and east through the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, to reach the Pribilof Islands and the Southwest coast. With colder air in place over Southwest Alaska, precipitation with this front may fall as snow during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

As the front tracks over the Alaska Peninsula, colder air filters in behind across the Bering Sea, with a trough pivoting around the low and centering over the Pribilof Islands. This allows for precipitation to persist through Wednesday, primarily as snow with temperatures at to just above freezing. Showery conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutian Islands through at least Tuesday. Showers may start as snow in the early mornings when temperatures are cooler but are expected to transition to rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm up. Northerly winds bringing cooler air on the back side of the low on Wednesday may lead to more widespread snow showers, with the best chances over the western and central Aleutians.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...

A large elongated trough with a NW - SE axis stretching from Siberia to the Gulf of Alaska will keep the eastern Bering Sea and most of western Alaska under low pressure for the start of the long term forecast period. Broad cyclonic flow and excess moisture will allow showery precipitation to persist for much of Aleutians and Southwest AK. The embedded closed low that brought moderate to high rates of precipitation to coastal Southcentral midweek will slowly dissipate. However, continued damp onshore flow will allow periods of rain and mountain snow through the weekend.

A shortwave trough swinging through the Aleutians will pivot the Bering low pressure system into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday.
Model guidance has been trending this system farther northwest, slightly increasing north Gulf coast precipitation and wind magnitudes for Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

PANC...Scattered showers will gradually taper off this afternoon with MVFR ceilings rising and scattering out. Ceilings should return to VFR this evening but may dip into MVFR at times. Rain and lower ceilings spread back up the Cook Inlet Tuesday morning with rainfall approaching the terminal between 13-16Z. As cross- barrier flow increases over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains Tuesday afternoon, ceilings will rise to VFR and precipitation will become more hit-and-miss at the terminal.