Sunrise 5:24 AM   Sunset 10:27 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 10:46 PM

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PKZ730 West Of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay- 407 Pm Akdt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu - S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu night - E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri and Fri night - E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.Sat - NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.Sun - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Mon - W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

FXAK68 PAFC 090044 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 444 PM AKDT Wed May 8 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave is lifting north through Southcentral this afternoon, spreading precipitation across Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula. Warm temperatures and breaks in the clouds are allowing some of the precipitation become more showery and convective. Cooler air following this trough will bring snow levels down and the potential for snow or a mix of rain and snow is possible through the rest of the week.

Looking at the pattern into the remainder of the week, things will look much more reminiscent of fall than late spring. As the shortwave trough and low moves inland this evening, rain and higher elevation snow will spread from the coast into interior Southcentral. Lighter rainfall is expected to briefly lift past lower elevations of the Copper River Basin, with amounts of generally a tenth of an inch or less through tonight not expected to noticeably exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns across the Glennallen area.

Late tonight into Thursday morning, steady rain will end from south to north as the shortwave trough exits towards the northern Alaska Range. Rapid pressure rises at the surface behind the trough passage will also lead to a short lived burst of stronger gap winds late tonight into early Thursday, most notably out of the Copper River up into Gulkana/Glennallen. Turnagain Arm winds could bring gusty winds to Anchorage. Gap winds will also be reinforced by a push of cold air advection from the south until the pressure gradient weakens along the coast later on Thursday morning. Cooler than average temperatures will prevail as cooler air streams in from the Gulf, with widely scattered rain showers and mountain snow showers expected to persist in general.

The main low in the Bering will swing east into Kodiak Island and the western Gulf by Thursday afternoon, pushing another wave of showers past Kodiak before becoming yet another open wave trough on approach to Southcentral. There is some lingering uncertainty regarding the exact trajectory with the main energy with this trough, but overall expect more cold rain to spread back into the Prince William Sound and out to the Mat-Su/Anchorage areas as the wave lifts north late Thursday night into Friday morning. Low level temperatures will start out noticeably cooler than what we have for this evening's rainfall event. While accumulating snow is not likely down to sea level, we very well could see falling snow reach all the way down to sea level for a short time late Thursday night into Friday across the Mat-Su and Anchorage before the trough axis lifts to the north on Friday. Cooler than normal but drier conditions (except near Kodiak) will persist into Friday.

-AS/rux

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper low resides over the central Bering Wednesday afternoon with weak high pressure over Southwest Alaska and the Western Aleutians. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and ridging over the Alaska mainland has aided in easterly wave activity into interior Bristol Bay, with models suggesting showers could continue through Thursday morning.

A polar low southeast of the Pribilof Islands moves southeast towards the Alaska Peninsula. The low will bring below freezing temperatures, gusty winds, and snow showers. The combination of winds and snow could result in periods of reduced visibility at times. Gusty conditions are expected to linger into Thursday morning from Nikolski to Akutan. Widespread small craft winds will occur near the polar low, with gusts upwards of 45 mph.

After the polar low departs the Aleutians and moves towards Southwest, a Kamchatka Low is forecast to spread a broad front into the Aleutians and Bering through Friday morning. Widespread precipitation and gale force winds will accompany the front and span the Aleutian Chain as it tracks from west to east, beginning Wednesday night. Warm air along the front should lift temperatures across the Aleutians above freezing, making most precipitation come in the form of rain. The low will reach Southwest by Friday morning before a new low forms southwest of Shemya Friday afternoon.

BS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The Alaska weather map shows a very broad upper level trough stretching from the Western Bering to the Canadian border. A number of occasionally vigorous troughs work through the pattern, picking up energy from the North Pacific and helps relax the overall amplitude of the trough into a more or less zonal flow through midweek. A couple of weakening low centers slip across from Bristol Bay along the North Gulf Coast through Wednesday, with most of the active weather production in their tracks. A moderate ridge over the Russian Far East flattens out with help from troughs moving out of Siberia late Monday into Tuesday.

A surface low near the Shumagin Islands with its front extending into the Gulf of Alaska pushes most of its precipitation ahead of the front. Locally heavy rainfall is expected from the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and diminishes over Prince William Sound to the Canadian Border through Monday. Lesser amounts will occur further inland to the Alaska Range. A well developed low near Kodiak Island and its front spreads another period of rainfall across Southcentral Alaska through Wednesday. A moderately strong trough drags another area of precipitation across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday and Monday. A new front out of Russia enters the Western Aleutians and Bering Tuesday, moving across the Central Aleutians by Wednesday. A third weather producer out of Russia approaches the Western portions for Wednesday.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR ceilings through late afternoon will likely lower to MVFR by this evening and remain through Thursday morning. Variable winds will become southerly by late this afternoon and will increase tonight as an area of low pressure moves from Prince William Sound inland over Southcentral Alaska. South to southeasterly winds could gust as high as 35 mph tonight through early Thursday morning before diminishing in intensity. Rain showers are also expected to develop over the terminal this afternoon or evening. The rain showers will become heavier tonight with reductions in visibility to MVFR conditions possible.
Showers will become more sparse and taper off Thursday morning.

Iliamna Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:04 AM AKDT     17.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:38 AM AKDT     -4.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:59 PM AKDT     15.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:45 PM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Iliamna Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Oil Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:07 AM AKDT     16.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM AKDT     -4.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:02 PM AKDT     14.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:45 PM AKDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oil Bay, Kamishak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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