Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:50AMSunset 6:38PM Saturday October 19, 2019 11:22 AM AKDT (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:54PMMoonset 1:47PM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 337 Am Akdt Sat Oct 19 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak city, AK
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location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 191723 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
923 am akdt Sat oct 19 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A large upper level low remains in place over the bering and a
second upper level low is centered over the gulf. At the surface
level, a weakening low just northwest of the pribilofs continues
to bring in colder air over the western bering. Meanwhile, a weak
low has spun up over unalaska island, bringing cloudy skies and
rain to the eastern aleutians, which will eventually lift to the
northeast and spread in over the alaska peninsula.

The low in the gulf is centered just southeast of middleton island
and is moving southwest. Gusty easterly winds persist along the
northern gulf coast this morning and showers are evident on radar
imagery over prince william sound.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement through the weekend. By Sunday
night, models show a few different solutions for the location of
a low lifting over the eastern aleutians southern akpen. There are
also differences in the position of another low entering the
western gulf on Monday. There is average confidence in the
forecast and the NAM solution was preferred for the morning
forecast package.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Slight chance
of MVFR ceilings with showers in the vicinity.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (through Sunday night)
A series of weak upper waves lift north across southcentral
through the the weekend. The first of the waves moves north
across the cook inlet region this afternoon and into the interior
tonight. Mid to upper level flow becomes more southerly bringing
some light overrunning snow to the northern susitna valley and
talkeetna mountains. Lower elevations to the south will see some
rain showers or pockets of light rain. Precipitation diminishes
inland tonight after the trough passage. However, continued east
flow over the eastern kenai peninsula will continue rain in that
region. On Sunday, precipitation increases across the kenai
peninsula as a weak surface low moves to the western gulf south of
the kenai peninsula. Also, chances of showers are expected
inland. Weak gap winds are expected across turnagain arm and portage
valley through Sunday. A weak matanuska wind develops Sunday evening.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3: today
through Monday)...

partly to mostly sunny skies are expected through this afternoon
under a weak ridge. Clouds will increase this evening, with
showers developing along coastal areas and flurries or light snow
developing over interior areas by early Sunday morning ahead of a
weakening cold front. Any snow accumulation will be minimal.

Partial clearing is possible Sunday afternoon behind the front.

Mostly cloudy skies will return Monday with possible onshore
showers or flurries as a low stalls near the pribilofs.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3:
today through Monday)...

a stalled upper level low in the bering will continue to bring
persistent showers to the aleutians and pribilofs as its
associated surface lows rotate around it. The heaviest of these
are expected east of and including unalaska on Sunday as a
relatively stronger meso-low tracks over that area.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Beginning the extended marine weather forecast Sunday afternoon,
there will be a broad low pressure centered over the central
bering sea with a region of enhanced (25-30 knot) northerly winds
on the backside of the low over the western bering sea. There is
high confidence a second low will move into the eastern bering and
bristol bay on Sun night and mon, bringing with it 20-30 knot
winds and seas 5-9 feet as it stalls in the vicinity of the
pribilof islands. There will be quieter winds and seas over the
gulf of alaska Sun and Mon as weakening fronts move into the gulf,
but stronger storms stay well to the south.

Attention quickly turns to a potentially rapidly developing low
late Tue night and Wednesday. There is much higher uncertainty and
lower confidence with the track and strength of this low, with
the GFS favoring a much stronger and powerful westward track of
this low through bristol bay, potentially as strong as 960 mb with
storm force winds and high seas through Wednesday. The ECMWF and
canadian are much weaker and favor a track into the gulf of alaska
and kodiak, with much lower winds and seas over the bering sea.

For now a middle ground forecast was favored with a gale force low
projected to track over the akpen and kodiak, but not as far west
as the very strong GFS and not as weak and far east as the weak
canadian solution which favors the far northeast gulf of alaska.

Mariners should beware of this potential storm, with another
couple days of some uncertainty as this low develops.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7; Monday through
Friday)...

beginning the extended forecast on Sunday evening, there will be a
large trough over the bering sea, and weak upper ridging over
southcentral and the alcan, stretching west across the alaska
range. As the state moves into the early part of next week, weak
embedded waves rotating around the trough will push moisture into
southwest alaska, increasing rain and snow threats through
Tuesday. However, southcentral will likely remain drier as the
precipitation remains mainly along the coast.

Attention then turns to a potentially rapidly developing low in
the north pacific Tuesday and Tuesday night which may bring the
next chance for significant weather for southern alaska.

Numerical models indicate significant strengthening is possible with
this low potentially approaching 960 mb Wednesday morning
(potential storm force winds) as it moves into the waters of
southern alaska. However, model uncertainty is rather high with
this storm with some models showing a track over bristol bay with
others favoring an eastward track across the north gulf. These
track differences result in a lot of uncertainty regarding
sensible weather across southern mainland, with some solutions
(the ecmwf, specifically) favoring a potential snow event for
parts of southcentral while the GFS favors a significant wind and
warm-rain event.Either way, expect the possibility of strong
winds and high seas in the coastal waters as well as the potential for
heavy coastal precipitation. In addition, expect the possibility
of gusty northwest gap winds along the alaska peninsula to last
through Friday. Another low moves into the western bering Friday
morning into Friday evening as the storm track shifts west.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood watch 121.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ko
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Lb ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 5 mi53 min WNW 1.9 40°F 997 hPa37°F
HMSA2 5 mi31 min W 1.9 G 4.1 42°F 996 hPa35°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 21 mi53 min 48°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi53 min 47°F998.1 hPa
APXA2 23 mi98 min E 2.9 36°F 998 hPa34°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi23 min ENE 6 G 7 41°F 997.8 hPa (+0.0)38°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi23 min NNW 9.9 G 9.9 44°F 997.4 hPa (-0.3)37°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.