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Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 9:07PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 3:20 AM AKDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:25PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 352 Pm Akdt Tue Apr 7 2020
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
Wed..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
Wed night..NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu and Thu night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak city, AK
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location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 080035 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 435 PM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. The pattern is actually relatively quiet today with just 2 critical pieces to focus on. Before we get to the active weather, mostly clear skies across Southcentral allowed temperatures to drop all the way down -24F in the Copper River Basin this morning. High pressure has continued to keep things quiet for much of Southcentral today. So the first piece of the upcoming pattern is a cold, closed low over the Eastern Bering. This feature is actually drawing down some rather cold 850 mb (5,000') with temperatures of about -19C. It is being supported by an upper level jet streak at 300 mb (30,000') of 110kt from the northwest. There are some heavier snow showers clipping parts of the YK- Delta and the Alaska Peninsula associated with this feature.

Component #2 is a swath of moisture riding up through the North Pacific on a trajectory just east of Kodiak Island. This moisture is riding up on a fairly strong 120 kt 300mb jet moving from SW to NE. There will actually be some significant jet interaction (coupling) between these various parts of the jet today. This strengthening upper level support will only serve to deepen a developing surface low just east of Kodiak. This continues to be the main story in weather for the next couple of days. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through tonight for Kodiak Island.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Overall across AK, models continue to handle the synoptic pattern well. However, the key storm near Kodiak Island continues to give the models fits. They have consolidated around a solution where the surface low tracks just east of the island. However, exactly where the low forms, whether or not it takes on two centers, and where the heaviest QPF falls remain in question. This is likely caused due to the interaction of a compact low over the Eastern Bering, a coupling upper level jet, and moisture coming from the data-void region of the N Pacific. The global models (GFS and EC) continue to stick to their guns keeping a consolidated low tracking the furthest to the east of the island. However, the higher res models (to include the NAM and the GEM-Regional) have trended further west with the low center and depict the center in a more elongated fashion. The net effect of the higher res solutions would be more warm air making it to the eastern half of Kodiak Island and thus, limiting snow accumulations. We have continued to stick towards the colder solutions as they have been more consistent run to run. However, the forecast for exact amounts at any given location, especially near the coast, remain uncertain. Models have come into better agreement ferrying the moisture with this storm further to the east along the N Gulf Coast on Wed. So while Cordova could still see some snow, it looks like Whittier through Valdez will be mostly dry.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Friday) .

A significant winter storm situated about 100 miles off the southeast coast of Kodiak Island this evening will continue to produce widespread precipitation and and strong easterly winds over the western and northern portions of the Gulf through Wednesday. The brunt of this storm will impact Kodiak Island with heavy, wet snow and northerly wind gusts to 45 mph through early Wednesday. Temperatures along the eastern shores of Kodiak Island will continue to hover a couple degrees above the freezing mark through this evening, allowing for the potential for a rain/snow mix. However, as the low pulls away tonight, temperatures will cool and any liquid precipitation will quickly change back over to snow before ending by sunrise. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the island with 5 to 10 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, possible.

As the low lifts to the northeast, it will strengthen as its front pushes toward the Southcentral coast. This will help develop a barrier jet and increase easterly winds to storm-force along the coast through the first part of Wednesday. Snow will also accompany the front and push over Prince William Sound tonight, bringing periods of snow for Cordova, Valdez, and Thompson Pass. As the low and front move to the Southcentral coast, northerly outflow winds will increase in response to the tightening pressure gradient. Because of this, blowing snow is possible for Thompson Pass, and perhaps even Cordova, although the warmer temperatures along the coast will act to limit any transportable snow. For the most part, snow amounts for these locations will remain quite light due to a strong offshore flow ahead of the storm keeping drier air in place near the surface.

Northerly outflow winds will again increase from west to east across Southcentral beginning Wednesday in the wake of the low as it tracks near Yakutat. Any lingering snow near Cordova will come to an end late Wednesday as the surface low and accompanying upper- level shortwave lift toward the Yukon. Conditions are then expected to quiet down across Southcentral and the Gulf as high pressure builds back in Wednesday night through Friday. An arctic air mass will remain in place over the state, so temperatures will continue to run a little below normal through the end of the week, particularly for nighttime lows.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)

Generally quiet weather is expected across Southwest Alaska through Friday. The snow showers that occurred over some parts of the area today are now weakening, with the most persistent ones expected mainly through the Kuskokwim Mountains. High pressure will build over the area on Wednesday, allowing for a bit more sunshine through, especially inland and the further east you go. Nudged high temperatures up a few degrees during the day Wednesday to account for more expected sunshine. Late Wednesday night into Thursday, a warm front will move north across the Bering, but the main effects with it will be focused over the Kuskokwim Delta late Wednesday night into Thursday. This could bring a couple inches of snow to mostly coastal areas, with south to southwest winds following behind the front. For now, however, the front appears weak enough that impacts from this feature look to be minimal, but any increases in strength could change that. Behind the front, high pressure builds right back in, allowing sunshine to return with temperatures warming back to near normal on Friday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)

A front moving across the western Aleutians currently will move northeastward with time, reaching the northern Bering Wednesday night. This will allow somewhat warmer temperatures to return to the Aleutians. High pressure over the central Aleutians will shift east across the Alaska Peninsula by Thursday. The parent low to the aforementioned front moves into the western and central Aleutians on Thursday. The low will eventually turn northward and move across the western Bering through Friday. This will allow southerly warmer wind flow to return to much of the eastern Bering. A large North Pacific low will slowly make its way into the Alaska Peninsula late on Friday, plunging the area back into unsettled weather.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5). (Friday through Sunday)

Bering Sea/Aleutians…

A large area of low pressure will dominate much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians on Friday, with its central pressure near 1000 mb located over the western portions of the sea. Showery type precipitation is a good bet. An attendant surface front will bisect the east central Bering and Aleutians, but this front looks to remain below gale force. This front moves rapidly north on Saturday, away from the region. A north Pacific storm, in the neighborhood of 970 mb, lifts north towards Shemya on Saturday while remaining south of the island chain. Its associated surface front does progress into the western and central Aleutians though, with sustained gales possible.

Gulf of Alaska… High pressure remains over the northern and eastern Gulf on Friday and then moves eastward by Friday night. This allows a front to enter the southwestern Gulf. This front reaches the northern and eastern Gulf on Saturday, as a weak area of low pressure moves to a position southeast of Kodiak Island. The front then moves ashore by Sunday afternoon, with the weak low moving into the northern Gulf. Northwesterly offshore flow then develops near the Barren Islands and Kodiak Island.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7. Sat through Tue) .

For the long term, there remains some consistency for an upper level ridge to persist over the mainland of Alaska. While a warming trend to near average remains evident every day through Day 7, a somewhat unsettled pattern develops over the weekend. Therefore, confidence is average through Sunday. After Sunday, the models begin to diverge substantially leading to low confidence for Monday and Tuesday.

Over the Bering and the Aleutians, both the GFS and ECMWF show a similar upper level pattern with an upper trough over the North Pacific corresponding to a strong low at the surface to the south of the western Aleutians. The GFS keeps an extension of a weaker upper level ridge across the Bering from the main ridge over the mainland. This will help to keep the aforementioned system south and push the trough underneath the ridge keeping it over the North Pacific south of the Aleutian Chain. The ECMWF, however, weakens the ridge over the Bering and allows the surface front with the closed low to push into the western Bering early Sunday morning. There is average confidence with the low in the North Pacific with low confidence in the details of how this system progresses. Further east, there is average confidence that another weak system over the North Pacific will move northward toward Bristol Bay Saturday keeping the weather unsettled across the eastern Bering

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning 171. MARINE . Gale 125 127 130 132-139 150. Storm 119 120 131. Heavy Freezing Spray 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MSO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 5 mi29 min NE 15 G 24 28°F 1002.2 hPa17°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi51 min 39°F1004.9 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi21 min N 32 G 35 30°F 1004.4 hPa (+0.0)19°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi21 min NW 16 G 30 30°F 1002.8 hPa (+1.3)26°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.