Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fox River, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

Key messages:

- A Flood Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM this morning from Bethel to the Kuskokwim Bay.

- Another powerful storm system will move out of the Pacific on Tuesday. The storm is expected to take a more southerly track across the Aleutians Islands and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty southeast winds are expected with minor coastal flooding possible in Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, but not for Kipnuk or the Kuskokwim River.

In the wake of the departure of the remnants of former Typhoon Halong, broad longwave troughing encompasses the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. A relatively weak and quick moving system currently situated just to the south of the Alaska Peninsula will continue to bring periods of light to moderate rain across Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley through this morning into early this afternoon. Several weak features embedded within the longwave trough will allow for breezy southerly winds (10-15 mph) and showers to linger throughout the day for the Kuskokwim Delta. Periods of fog remain possible through this morning for the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes if skies are able to sufficiently clear out as the low south of the AKPen continues to push east and into Southcentral. Otherwise, generally showery weather and areas of low stratus and fog over the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain persists into Tuesday as a broad low in the western Bering continues to decay.

By Monday evening, a shortwave trough emerging off of Kamchatka digs south and begins to track along the Aleutian Chain before eventually interacting with a North Pacific low beginning Tuesday morning. This system quickly strengthens as the two features consolidate to the south of the Central Aleutians. As the low tracks to the east along the Aleutian Chain, widespread rainfall along with gale force winds with storm force gusts can be expected for the Central Aleutians through Tuesday and for the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday before moving into the Gulf. A front associated with the low lifts into the Southwest mainland for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing another round of gusty winds and rain through Wednesday afternoon. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast will likely see gusty east- southeast winds up to 40 mph. These increasing winds Wednesday morning will coincide with the high tide cycle and could potentially bring elevated water levels to Kwigillingok and Kongiganak depending on the orientation of the front and southerly component to the winds. Confidence in a more southerly track for this storm is growing as models continue to come into better agreement, which would work lessen the overall threat for flooding. Winds will decrease by Wednesday afternoon as the center of the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, but areas of light to moderate rainfall will continue across the Southwest mainland into Thursday.

-JH

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

An active weather pattern will bring strong winds and heavy precipitation across much of region. A deep cyclone is expected to move through the Aleutians towards southwestern Alaska, with its exact path uncertain but trending southward. This storm will likely bring storm-force winds to the Aleutians starting Tuesday, along with moderate amounts of rainfall. These conditions will spread to the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday as the cyclone makes landfall. Southern coastal areas, including Southcentral and Prince William Sound, can expect heavy precipitation later in the week due to a related weather system developing over the Gulf of Alaska.

Towards the end of the week, another less intense cyclone is forecasted to move into the Bering Sea, bringing more precipitation to the southern coastal regions. High winds may continue in the Aleutians, with the potential for another strong cyclone arriving by the weekend. Temperatures across Alaska will remain above normal due to persistent southwesterly winds. While the exact strength and track of this storms very across the models, the consensus suggests significant weather impacts, particularly for western and southern Alaska.

-DD


AVIATION

PANC...Ceilings have the potential to decrease to MVFR later this morning as light rain continues to fall at the terminal, but will likely be below 5000 ft even if they remain VFR. Light northerly winds are expected to prevail, but could be somewhat variable. By this evening, winds shift southerly as rain begins to taper off, and there is potential for a period of lower ceilings. This is likely to be MVFR but there is potential for as low as IFR.
Ceilings become quite uncertain tonight into Tuesday, as MVFR ceilings (with a chance of being IFR) look to linger in the area.
At the terminal, ceilings may lift to VFR at times through Tuesday morning.

Quesada