Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fox River, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:00AMSunset 3:45PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 4:35 PM AKST (01:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 308 Pm Akst Wed Dec 11 2019
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fox River, AK
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location: 59.73, -151.02     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 120103 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 403 PM AKST Wed Dec 11 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A low south of Kodiak Island continues to track to the northwest today. The main front associated with this low is ahead of the low and moving across the eastern Bering Sea. A secondary low is stretched across the north Gulf coast bringing rain to that region. The 250 mb jet stream is running south of this low and will remain south of the region. This will keep generally mild air over southern Alaska for a number of days.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Model guidance remains in very good agreement through the remainder of the week. The only item keeping them from being in excellent agreement is that the NAM is a little bit too fast in bringing in the front to the northern Gulf on Friday.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Low pressure is moving north across the Gulf of Alaska toward the north Gulf Coast. Winds over the northern Gulf will remain easterly between the 40 to 50 mph range before diminishing Thursday morning. A weak pressure gradient has established a Mat Valley wind with gusts expected up to 25 mph out of the northeast. The Copper River Basin looks to stay on the cooler side with patchy fog being a concern as offshore flow has weakened since yesterday. This looks to limit drying out the basin or scouring fog out of the area until at least until Thursday morning.

Small waves of energy are rotating around this system, although, without upper level support they don't look to provide the precipitation rates we've seen the last few weeks. The strongest wave of energy is possible late Thursday into Friday where the Copper River Basin could see a few snow showers with minor snowfall accumulations. Due to the warm air push with the low coming towards the north Gulf, coastal locations from Kodiak Island to western Prince William Sound precipitation looks to remain in liquid form with higher elevations seeing snowfall. Most locations on the leeward side of the mountains will remain dry due to downsloping from cross-barrier flow (flow that is perpendicular to the mountains instead of parallel) so expect limited precipitation across most of Southcentral.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A stationary low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring scattered showers to Bristol Bay and coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta through Friday. Across the Alaska Peninsula tonight, a cooler air mass across the Bering will change precipitation over to snow west of Nelson Lagoon. Gusty northerly flow persisting overnight will result in areas of blowing snow along the western Peninsula. Winds taper off early Thursday as the low center lifts northeast; however, precipitation continues as low pressure remains dominant across the Bering and Gulf.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). Two low pressure centers will keep active weather across the Bering through Thursday with gusty northerly conditions across the eastern waters tonight tapering down on Thursday as the low south of the Alaska Peninsula lifts northeast. The next stronger front moves up to the western Aleutians Thursday night. This system will bring brief blowing snow conditions for Shemya as it crosses to the southern Bering Otherwise. this system will bring mixed precipitation across the rest of the central and eastern Aleutians along with gusty gale force winds through Friday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

For the Bering: Weather starts out quiet on Friday with a high pressure ridge in place over the Bering Sea. On Saturday, a strong low pressure system will skirt the southern side of the Central Aleutian Islands as it moves west to east. It will bring gale force winds to the area as it goes, exiting Sunday. Model agreement is good with this system and we are confident in the forecast.

For the Gulf of Alaska: A low will be present in the Western Gulf of Alaska on Friday, bring a large area of small craft advisory winds with isolated gales to much of the gulf. It will also keep sea states elevated. The low moves ashore over Southwest AK Friday night, calming winds and waves for Saturday morning. Later Saturday into Sunday another front enters from the southwest, bringing gales and small craft advisories back to the gulf. We are confident in this forecast as model guidance looks to be on track.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have come into better, though not perfect, agreement for the long term. Expect a continued active pattern over the Aleutians, while quieter weather will persist over Southcentral. Saturday, a low in the western Gulf of AK will continue to swing a series of weak fronts toward the North Gulf Coast, bringing periods of precipitation into Sunday. Precipitation will be concentrated on southeast facing slopes, mainly on the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska Range. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Yukon and interior AK will strengthen, and conditions will trend colder over inland areas of the Southern Mainland.

Out west, a strong low south of the central Aleutians will swing an occluded front across the chain and generate a healthy round of precipitation over the Aleutians, the AKPEN and likely into the Southwest Mainland Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances look highest in the Bristol Bay area, with the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta likely staying drier in offshore flow. As the occluded front pushes toward the Southwest Mainland, relatively cold air in place over the mainland will enhance the pressure gradient, and strong south/southeast winds are possible from Kamishak Bay to as far north as the Kilbuck Mountains. There is indication that a triple point low will form south of the AKPEN late Saturday, enhancing precipitation over Kodiak Island and along the south/southeast facing slopes of the Alaska/Aleutian Range. However, it's hard to have much certainty this far out and with run-to-run model inconsistencies.

As that secondary low pushes northeastward Sunday into Monday, expect a swath of precipitation and strong winds in the northern Gulf of Alaska. In addition, expect another round of precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula Sunday night into Monday . then precipitation will likely spread toward Prince William Sound and eastward along the coast Monday.

Another low will approach the western Aleutians Monday, and push an occluded front across the chain through Tuesday. Since there's still some uncertainty with the progression of the low downstream, it's tough to discern how the upstream low will affect the Southwest Mainland. Models differ on whether the front will dissipate before reaching the mainland.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 119 120 130 131 139 155 165 178. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CK SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KH MARINE/LONG TERM . BB/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 23 mi23 min ENE 19 G 27 46°F 984.6 hPa37°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 42 mi47 min 45°F986.7 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 44 mi35 min 45°F3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 59 mi35 min NNE 12 G 13 44°F 986.6 hPa (-1.4)39°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 69 mi47 min NE 14 G 19 39°F 38°F992.4 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK26 mi42 minNE 610.00 miOvercast45°F37°F74%987.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE7NE10NE11NE6NE8NE9NE9NE9N4E14NE11E10
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NE6NW3SE6CalmE8E6CalmN4N7S4SE5E3E9E12E13E9NE8
2 days agoNE14NE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Bear Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Bear Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:49 AM AKST     17.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM AKST     3.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:09 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:53 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:25 PM AKST     20.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:00 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:05 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:59 PM AKST     -2.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM AKST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.417.117.816.413.49.55.83.73.96.310.114.317.819.919.717.313.182.9-0.9-2.2-0.92.57.1

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM AKST     18.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:24 AM AKST     3.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:09 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:53 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM AKST     20.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:07 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:59 PM AKST     -2.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM AKST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.617.418.116.713.79.763.846.510.214.418.120.220.117.613.48.23-0.8-2.1-0.82.67.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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