Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fox River, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:59PM Saturday August 15, 2020 9:49 AM AKDT (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 6:52PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 342 Am Akdt Sat Aug 15 2020
Today..N wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon through Tue..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fox River, AK
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location: 59.73, -151.02     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 151334 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 534 AM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large and complex upper low with a myriad of smaller waves dancing around one another sits in the Alaska Gulf this morning with pronounced northeast flow continuing over nearly all land zones outside the Aleutians. A strong ridge over the Bering Sea encroaching into virtually all of the West and Southwest is nearing its peak strength and areal extent with markedly dry air at and below around 700mb spilling south/west into all but the far Southeast zones. The only other exception to the dryness is the potent front draped just upstream of the ridge axis or roughly along the Western Aleutian islands. Very low stratus and/or fog is also persisting under the ridge including most of the Aleutian chain and Pribilof islands. Trends have generally been dry in terms of precip over much of the past day except for a couple strong storm cells that flared up around sunset near the Copper River Delta.

A strong pressure gradient from northwest to southeast between the surface high in the Bering sea and broad surface low in the AK Gulf is driving stiff and gusty north to northwest winds over a number of areas including the YK delta, Susitna valley and Copper River Basin. Gap winds gusting at times to around 30 kts have been observed in some places including Valdez which should continue to be an issue this morning. Additionally, there will soon be fire weather concerns today with the combination of warm temperatures, low humidity and stronger winds prompting red flags for inland areas across the mainland. These winds are preventing much nocturnal stratification near the surface with temperatures unseasonably warm even now, and a number of low elevation stations are still reporting near/above 60F as of 10z Sat morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Latest models shows a slight contrast between the surface and upper level solutions, whereas surface models play catch up while solutions at 500 mb maintains a tractable flow. The GFS and ECMWF displays an aggressive lead on the motion and position of the upper low, as both quickly drives the upper low over the North Pacific around Sunday morning then retracts it back to the western Gulf or southeast of Kodiak Monday night. NAM12 is unbothered and takes its time trailing closely behind GFS and ECMWF; it's the only solution taking chances by steepening the upper low just 2-3 digits under over the Gulf in the next day or two. Further west, the ridge aloft will continue to lounge across the Interior through the weekend. Meanwhile, the approaching high from the Bering will manage to drift over the Yukon Delta and remain there into early next week. As the next low from western Aleutians progresses through the Bering, it will reinforce both wind and pressure gradients mainly over the Bering Sea and gales will become evident over western Aleutians today and over Saint Matthew Island Saturday night.

AVIATION. PANC . As winds gradually increase throughout today, northerly winds with gusts up to 30 mph at times will persist into the evening hours then diminishing after midnight. The models suggest light winds for PANC on Sunday. Hence, VFR conditions will continue through the period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Through Sunday).

Warm,dry, and locally windy conditions today. Diminishing winds, but still warm and dry across Southcentral on Sunday.

Upper ridging continues to build across Southcentral with a weakening upper low over the Gulf. Warm and generally dry conditions are expected across the region today with many areas, especially inland, seeing temperatures in the 70s with RH values in the 20s to 30s. These warm and dry conditions will continue into Sunday. A pinch in the pressure gradient between higher surface pressure inland and low pressure over the Gulf will continue gusty outflow and gap winds across many areas today. Windy conditions combined with warm and dry air will reach critical fire weather thresholds this afternoon through this evening. While warm and dry conditions continue into Sunday winds will be much lighter with critical fire weather indices not expected. Upslope enhancement with low to mid level northeasterly flow may kick off a few showers and possibly wet thunderstorms along the Talkeetna Mountains this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, not much convection is expected over the next couple of days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2).

A high amplitude pattern is on deck for this forecast period. An upper level ridge over the Bering will lead to widespread subsidence, northerly flow and a warming trend over Southwest Alaska. Temperatures for the interior regions will easily breach 70F the benchmark and a number of locations could even make it into the mid to upper 70s. Additionally, an enhanced pressure gradient will be in place resulting in gusty winds. These factors combined with widespread low relative humidity values merited a Red Flag Warning for the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay for today. Sunday will be warm and dry also.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2).

A mature low southwest of Attu Island reached 995 mb early this morning. The associated frontal boundary will slowly track across the western Bering/Aleutians this weekend bringing widespread precipitation and gale force winds to the area. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front. There is a large dome of high pressure over the Pribilof Islands and Nikolski that will slowly push eastward. The low will eventually move north of the chain and will develop a new triple point low south of the chain on Monday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday).

Aleutians/Bering: A Bering low and front moves into Western Alaska by Wed. While the track and development of the low vary through the end of the forecast as the low develops into a weak multiple center low complex through Wed, confidence is fair for showers and local small craft winds and waves to move to the rear of the low over the Aleutians and Bering. As the low and front move onshore, showers persist, but the winds dissipate. High pressure moves into the Bering for Wed.

Gulf of AK: An East Gulf low moves across the Northern Gulf, weakening and dissipating by Wed. Confidence is good for areas of showers and Easterly small craft winds and waves, with local gales near capes to move along the North Gulf Coastal zones. All winds and waves diminish for Wed towards the Western Gulf. A front enters the Western Gulf Tue and extends over the Southern Gulf for Wed. Confidence is good for small craft winds with the front through Wed.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tue through Fri).

The extended period is defined by an upper-level trough situated across the northern Gulf and the North American ridge stretching northwest over the northern half of the state. This set up will result in an overall easterly flow across the forecast area with intrusions of moist, southerly winds aloft as upper-level waves pinwheel around the parent low in the Gulf. This pattern will lead to rain along the immediate Southcentral coast by early Tuesday morning transitioning to showers and spreading across the interior by late Tuesday. Showers will continue through mid-week as these features work west toward Southwest Alaska. Temperatures are also expected to trend cooler due to increased cloud cover and the overall flow keeping the axis of the thermal trough north of the region. The pattern then look like it may amplify again by the end of the week as a North Pacific low moves across the western Aleutians and into the Bering, pushing a ridge back over the state.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALES: 127, 175, 177, 185, 411-413. FIRE WEATHER . RED FLAG WARNING: 101, 111, 121, 145, 153, 162.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . AS/CB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . PS MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/TM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 23 mi17 min S 1.9 G 5.1 56°F 1005 hPa49°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 42 mi49 min 56°F1007.1 hPa (+0.0)
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 59 mi19 min N 7 G 8 57°F 1007.5 hPa51°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 69 mi49 min NNE 8.9 G 12 67°F 59°F1006.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK26 mi4.9 hrsNE 310.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE5NE5NE5E4E3SE3SW6SW8SW10SW8S8S5454----NE5--------NE3
1 day agoNE4NE6NE5NE5NE6E4----W11W12W13
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W12SW10W12SW8----------------
2 days ago--CalmCalmCalm----CalmS3CalmW7--SW64SW5--W5----------------

Tide / Current Tables for Bear Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Bear Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:19 PM AKDT     14.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 PM AKDT     6.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:52 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.514.412.59.86.84.22.52.33.45.68.411.313.614.614.41310.88.56.96.67.89.912.515

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     2.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:20 PM AKDT     14.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 PM AKDT     6.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:51 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.814.812.710.174.32.62.43.55.78.611.513.814.914.713.3118.676.77.910.112.715.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.