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PKZ763 Kuskokwim Delta And Etolin Strait Out To 15 Nm- 348 Am Akst Sat Dec 2 2023
.small craft advisory Sunday...
Today..NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow showers.
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun night..NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Mon..NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Tue through Wed..W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 021147 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 247 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A quieter weather pattern is in the works for the next several days. Periods of light snow continue for the West Coast and Western Interior as low pressure remains nearby. Otherwise, colder temperatures are expected across the Interior.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, a 502 dam (decameter) low is centered over the Bering Strait this morning, with troughing extending south of the Aleutians. A developing 509 dam low is 175 NM south of False Pass, while a weakening 514 dam low is 100 NM south of Sitka. A 515 dam shortwave trough is over the Fortymile Country. A 506 dam low is over Victoria Island, while a 480 dam low is over central Siberia.
The low over the Bering Strait weakens as it moves over the northern Gulf of Anadyr Sunday afternoon. The upper low south of the Aleutians lifts northeast across the Gulf of Alaska through Sunday, weakening as it approaches SE Alaska and pushing the Fortymile shortwave north. Meanwhile, the troughing over the Bering moves east to the West Coast by Monday morning as a 507 dam low moves out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska.
As this low moves northeast, ridging builds north across the eastern two-thirds of the mainland.

At the surface, a 986 mb low is centered over the Bering Strait with a trough extending south to Nunivak Island. A trough extends out of the high Arctic to Mackenzie Bay. A 966 mb low is 175 NM south of False Pass and a 978 mb low is 50 NM north of Kiska Island. The low over the Bering Strait weakens to 989 mb this afternoon as it moves northwest to the northern Chukotka Coast, maintaining an area of low pressure through the Bering Strait. A 992 mb low develops over the Seward Peninsula this afternoon, deepening to 989 mb Sunday morning as it moves be 75 NM northwest of Shishmaref, continuing north to be 987 mb 75 NM west of Point Hope Monday morning. The low near Kiska Island will move southeast to Amchitka by this afternoon and south of the Aleutians early Sunday morning before becoming absorbed by a 965 mb low moving northeast out of the North Pacific and towards the Gulf of Alaska.
A quick-moving 992 mb low moves into the western Bering Sea by Monday morning.

Models...The 02/00Z model solutions initialized well both at the surface and a loft and remain in very good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through the short term. No significant differences were noted. Blended towards the NAM/NAM Nest for the winds and a general blend for precip. Otherwise, made only minor edits to inherited forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet across the region. Areas of stratus and fog paint the Arctic Coast this morning and are expected to persist through the next several days. A few flurries can’t be ruled out. Easterly winds of 15 to 25 mph will prevail through the weekend along the Arctic Coast. In the Brooks Range passes south winds of less than 15 mph expected. Temperatures cool.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Little change is expected over the weekend as troughing remains over the area. Snow chances continue, with accumulations two inches or less through the weekend. As a low develops over the Seward Peninsula late today and moves north, southeast winds increase to 10 to 15 Sunday from Kotzebue to Point Hope. On Sunday night from the Seward Peninsula south, winds become west to southwest and increase as the next low moves into the Bering.
Temperatures cool.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A shortwave trough moving north across the Fortymile Country today is bringing some snow and clouds along the Canadian border. Aside from that expect mostly clear skies and precip free conditions through the weekend. Colder temperatures move in across the Interior. Expect sharp inversions. High temperatures today range from the single digits above zero to teens below zero, with the coldest temperatures across the Upper Tanana Valley and the Yukon Flats. Tonight valley temperatures drop to 15 to 20 below and highs largely below zero Sunday. Cloud cover increases Monday and winds over Interior hills increase, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures Monday. A weak Tanana Valley Jet persists through the weekend, strengthening briefly Monday to 15 to 20 mph. Precip chances return for the southeastern Interior late Monday as a shortwave moves north.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
The extended period is dominated by an upper level low moving southeast out of Russia and over southwest Alaska. As the low tracks southeast, it will spread snow across the West Coast and Western Interior and turn flow aloft southerly over the Central and Eastern Interior. Forecast confidence is on the lower side at this time as there are significant differences in feature placement late in the period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A low is projected to track into the N Bering Sea from the Sea oh Okhotsk sometime Wednesday and then move inland Thursday into Friday. However, the current track looks like it will bring the highest seas/surge into Bristol Bay. Minor elevated water levels are still possible from the YK Delta to Norton Sound.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.

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Eek Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM AKST     7.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 AM AKST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:17 PM AKST     11.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:48 PM AKST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:09 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eek Channel, off Quinhagak, Alaska, Tide feet

Warehouse Creek entrance
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Sat -- 02:30 AM AKST     7.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:09 AM AKST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:25 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:43 PM AKST     12.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:07 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:33 PM AKST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warehouse Creek entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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