FXAK69 PAFG 152234 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 234 PM AKDT Sun Sep 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A strong low pressure system will move north and east along the West Coast this weekend bringing strong winds, and Heavy rainfall.
As the low tracks towards the Interior, rain will spread eastward on Sunday. The Interior will stay unsettled through mid-week.
Another low will track into Bristol Bay on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, Aloft, A 525 upper level low over the west coast will track inland across the western Interior on Monday and over the E Interior on Tuesday. This will keep most of the Interior unsettled through Tuesday. At the surface, a 988 mb move across the Y-K Delta Coast on Sunday. This surface low Surface low will be near Galena by Monday morning before weakening. Models in good agreement in the short-term, we will continue with a blend of the GFS/ECMWF.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain and Snow shower activity will be confined to the Brooks Range today. Mostly snow in the Passes with possible accumulations of 2 to 4 inches east of the Dalton Highway, but not much accumulation on the Dalton Highway. Winds diminish late Sunday into Monday as the front pushes north of the coast. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong low pressure system will move north and east along the West Coast this weekend bringing strong winds, and Heavy rainfall. Northwestly winds continue on the backside of the low this afternoon and evening. The highest water is expected near Y-K Delta and during the day through this evening. Winds will begin to diminish overnight tonight. Rainfall totals of half an inch to an inch and a half are expected through Monday, with highest amounts south and west of a line from Kaltag to Nikolai.
High temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Another strong low will track across SW Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more rain and winds to the southern west coast. Northerly winds will also ramp up over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers moving across the Interior today as a shortwave aloft tracks across the area. There could be areas of fog in valley locations again Monday morning. Rainfall accumulations around a quarter of an inch expected in the Fairbanks area Sunday, between a quarter and a half an inch from Bettles to Tanana and in the Alaska Range, and less than a quarter of an inch elsewhere.
Upper level low over the west coast will continue to track across the Western Interior on Monday bringing more rain to the region.
Rain spreads across the Central Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday. There is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm near Eagle/ALCAN Border Monday afternoon. High temperatures top out in the low 50s and lows drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Another low pressure system moving across the Bering will approach the southwest coast on Tuesday. A front associated with this low pressure system will bring heavy rain to the southwest Interior. Otherwise, overall troughing will maintain unsettled conditions over the northern Interior, cooler temps over the north slope and Brooks Range and a chance of precip. Ridging may build over the west coast by late week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another strong low pressure system will move to near St. Matthew Island on Tuesday.
At this time, models indicate that the low will track southeast from there into Bristol Bay. This track would not impact areas from the Yukon Delta north with any type of elevated water, but there could be Gale-Force Winds in the Bering Strait on Tuesday.


HYDROLOGY
Rivers across the Interior will rise over the next several days as rainfall moves into the river basins. Heavy rain expected over the west coast of 0.50 to 1 inch or more in some locations, that will likely raise small rivers and streams.
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