Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 9:33 PM Moonrise 2:05 PM   Moonset 5:12 AM

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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday - .
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.Thu - N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.Fri - N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat - N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Sun - N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 180056 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 456 PM AKDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A longwave trough axis remains parked over the Bering Sea into the North Pacific. On the eastern periphery of this trough, a deep moisture plume associated with a surface low just south of the Alaska Peninsula continues to produce moderate to locally heavy rain across Kodiak Island northward through portions of the eastern Kenai Peninsula. This axis of moisture will remain fairly stationary through Friday between the upper low over the North Pacific and upper ridge over the Yukon, but is expected to move slightly north tonight bringing a period of heavier precipitation to the eastern Kenai including Seward northward to Portage and Whittier. By Friday afternoon, this moisture plume moves back south, shutting off precipitation in the western Prince William Sound and possibly Seward as well, but bringing another round of moderate to locally heavy rain to Kodiak Island. Everything considered, an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected through Friday from Kodiak Island northward through the eastern Kenai. With strong easterly flow off of the Gulf, snow will be confined to the higher elevations of the Kenai Mountains and Eastern Turnagain Arm.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, gusty easterly winds also continue near Kodiak and portions of the Kenai Peninsula due to a strong pressure gradient between the aforementioned low and high pressure. Strong easterly gap winds also continue through Portage and the Turnagain Arm. These winds are expected to slowly diminish through Thursday night as the gradient begins to relax.

Periods of rain showers are likely to continue for these same areas through much of the weekend as the upper level low remains south of the Alaska Peninsula. High temperatures on Friday through the weekend will rise into the 50s for much of Southcentral, with Anchorage through the Mat-Su Valley remaining mostly dry over the next few days.

-ME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A high amplitude trough stretches across the Bering Sea with a central low located south of the eastern Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula. East of the trough is southeasterly flow with warmer, stronger winds, and ample moisture moving across Southwest Alaska. With flow perpendicular to the mountains, some locations such as Bethel are being downsloped this afternoon. Warmer air has allowed some locations to transition from snow to a mix and even over to rain for Southwest. Mekoryuk and coastal Kuskokwim could see lingering snow and lower visibility. Strong, gusty winds will continue for Kamishak Gap through tonight and gradually decrease, though breezy still for Thursday. West of trough (primarily the western Bering Sea from the Pribilofs and central Aleutians westward) is cold northerly flow with convective pockets of snow showers.

The front associated with the central low is stretching from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, across the eastern Bering Sea, and through the western Alaska Peninsula. Precipitation is expected to linger across this front through Thursday morning and is expected to lean more west through Thursday. Snowfall in the eastern Aleutians is expected to continue through Friday morning, though intensities will gradually decrease by Thursday afternoon. There are challenges with the forecast for identifying the extent and duration that some locations will remain downsloped. Another challenge is with how far west the trough will lean, promoting the intrusion of midlevel warmth that could affect precipitation type. At this time, Unalaska is expected to remain all snow. Run to run consistency has been somewhat poor for the front moving over the eastern Aleutians and although snow is expected to decrease for Thursday morning, another forecast challenge we are monitoring is how much precipitation could potentially increase again for Unalaska Thursday night.

Overall, the general synoptic pattern is expected to change very little for the next couple days and even somewhat through the end of the week as unsettled weather continues. Model consensus begins to diverge later on Friday but guidance hints at the central low nudging northward and weakening as lobes of easterly waves flowing cyclonically around the low and supporting that westward movement of the front and weakening of the trough. An arctic low sinking through Kamchatka toward the end of this week will also help to guide the synoptic pattern and shift flow to moist and southerly for the western Aleutians.

rux

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An upper level ridge extending from a Northwest Canadian high center continues its hold across Mainland Alaska through the forecast period. Over the Gulf of Alaska, a closed low South of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island is weakening and beginning its movement away from the Gulf Monday. In the Far West, a well developed low out of Siberia moves across the Northern Bering before weakening and sliding back into the Arctic late Tuesday. A Western North Pacific low picks up some cold air from across the Russian Far East strengthening as it moves over the Central Aleutians by Wednesday. This scenario appears to set up a longer term duration over the Bering beyond the forecast period.

The remnants of a front extending into Western Alaska from the Gulf low continue periods of heavier rainfall over Kodiak Island and the AKPEN through early Monday. Some rain mixed with snow should occur around Bristol Bay, with areas of new snow further North along the West Coast. The approach of the Western Bering low and its front will spread gusty winds and precipitation across the Aleutians late Sunday, into the Pribilofs late Monday and continue over the AKPEN through Wednesday. A second North Pacific low moving East along the Southern Gulf brings another round of heavier precipitation and gusty winds over Kodiak Island and the AKPEN late Monday into Tuesday.

Kutz

Agnes Cove, Aialik Peninsula, Alaska, Tide feet

Aialik Sill, Aialik Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

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