Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lowell Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 8:54PM Friday April 3, 2020 4:07 PM AKDT (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 5:46AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 324 Pm Akdt Fri Apr 3 2020
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun and Sun night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowell Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -149.59     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 031306 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 506 AM AKDT Fri Apr 3 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A weak surface low centered over the northern Gulf and an upper level trough in western Alaska are producing widespread light snow in Prince William Sound, Copper River Basin, and much of southcentral Alaska this morning. A ridge of high pressure in the north Pacific is carrying pulses of energy over its northern edge into the eastern Aleutians. With a weak surface low in the Bering Strait, these two features are bringing some fog, stratus, rain and snow to southwest Alaska and the Kuskokwim Delta. A storm force front is entering the western Aleutians with strong southwest winds and temperatures in the upper 30's and 40's ahead of it all the way to Cold Bay.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement remains strong that there will be a significant push of onshore southwest flow in western Alaska in the coming days. Finer details of precipitation type and duration are still up for debate. A significant push of colder and drier air comes in behind this system to start the week.

AVIATION. PANC . Light snow will create IFR ceilings and visibility conditions through the day. VFR conditions will return by afternoon.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). Snow will end today from west to east as the responsible upper level trough rapidly moves eastward. A ridge of high pressure will then build in behind this trough. This will be a fairly flat ridge, and although some clearing is possible this afternoon and evening considerable clouds will begin to "spill" over the top of the ridge. Some areas, including Anchorage, could even see some precipitation late tonight into Saturday morning. The ridge will slowly migrate eastward on Saturday and Saturday night as a large upper low moves into the northern Bering. This will bring southwest flow aloft. Mostly this will result in considerable cloudiness, but not much chance of precipitation. The exception is the Susitna valley, where there will be more moisture and better dynamics.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday night) .

An active weather pattern across Southwest Alaska can be expected through the weekend. The two main events include a strong warm front moving inland this afternoon, followed by a very strong cold front barreling through on Saturday.

While lingering snow showers weaken over the Kuskokwim Delta coast this morning, a strong warm front is drawing near, and will reach the coast this afternoon. In addition to a lot of warm moist air, this front will also enhance winds across the Southwest coast with most locations seeing onshore gusty conditions in place by this evening. Cold air will be in place at the surface prior to the arrival of the front, allowing for initial precipitation to fall as snow, however as the warm front quickly progresses inland, a fast transition to rain is expected for coastal locations. Farther inland over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, it's possible that cold air will remain in place longer, thus allowing for additional snowfall into early Saturday.

A transition back to colder temperatures will occur Saturday night as a strong cold front moves onshore. In addition to gusty westerly winds, snow showers are likely, especially along the Kuskokwim Delta coast Saturday night into Sunday. This combination could limit visibility at times. As the front continues progressing eastward, cold air will remain in place through early next week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Sunday night) .

A strong front pushing through the Bering today will bring a surge of warm air to the area. Storm force winds are expected with this front, particularly over the waters north of Adak through the afternoon. By Friday night, a strong cold front follows, with northerly flow wrapping around the backside of the low as it lifts northward. Gales and snow showers will persist across the Bering through early Sunday before winds diminish and precipitation tapers by Sunday evening. A ridge of high pressure builds over the western Aleutians by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, an upper level trough in place over the central Bering may create enough of a disturbance to generate some snow over the Pribilof Islands, though confidence in this feature remains low at this time.

.Marine (Days 3 - 5/Sunday-Tuesday)

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

There is a high forecast confidence that gale force winds will occur in the eastern Bering Sea on Sunday. Confidence is much lower with respect to a weak low developing in the western Bering on Sunday then moving into the central Bering on Monday as guidance shows different solutions in the placement and intensity of this low. However, winds associated with this low are expected to remain below gale force. There is low confidence in the wind forecast on Tuesday as a front will move northward into the western Bering/Aleutians. Guidance shows differences in the speed at which the front is moving and differences in the intensity of the front. However, winds are expected to remain below gale force.

Gulf of Alaska:

High confidence exists in a weak low developing over the northern Gulf on Sunday and thus gale force northwesterly gap winds are expected in the western Gulf. Freezing spray associated with these strong northwesterly gap winds is likely as strong cold air advection will be present. There is low confidence in the wind forecast on Monday as guidance shows different solutions with the placement of synoptic features. However, the general trend is that the strong northwesterly gap winds gradually ease as transient high pressure moves over the Gulf. Very low forecast confidence is in store for Tuesday as another low moves into the Gulf from the west. Guidance shows very different solutions in the placement and intensity of this low, though as of now winds are expected to remain below gale force.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday-Thursday).

Guidance shows some discrepancies with the placement of synoptic features on Monday as some solutions show an upper low over the northeastern Alaskan mainland while others show this low centered over central interior Alaska. However, one area of consistency is there will be an upper trough that will encompass the central and eastern Alaskan mainland and thus colder temperatures are expected across those areas. Guidance is consistent with the general pattern on Tuesday with a second upper trough moving into the Alaskan mainland from the Bering, though there are discrepancies on the speed of its movement. Due to these speed discrepancies, the forecast confidence is low as this will influence the speed at which the surface cold front will move. Generally, it is to be expected that cold temperatures will continue across mainland Alaska. Forecast confidence becomes very low Wednesday onward as guidance shows significant differences in the upper level synoptic pattern which results in significant differences in the synoptic pattern at the surface.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 175 178 413. Gale Warning 165 170 173 174 176 177 179 181 185 411 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . LTB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 7 mi38 min NW 16 G 20 44°F 1017.9 hPa19°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 26 mi74 min 40°F1018 hPa
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 87 mi78 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 38°F 42°F4 ft1017.3 hPa (+0.0)33°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK25 mi75 minno data10.00 miA Few Clouds43°F26°F51%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAWD

Wind History from AWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day agoS5--SE4SE4SE3SE7------------------------------S3----
2 days agoS9S9SW7----------------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Camp Cove, Aialik Bay, Alaska
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Camp Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:33 AM AKDT     5.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:48 AM AKDT     9.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:41 PM AKDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:17 PM AKDT     8.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.76.15.65.25.25.76.47.38.18.898.47.25.53.6210.91.52.84.46.17.48.1

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska (2)
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Seward
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM AKDT     5.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM AKDT     9.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:45 PM AKDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:20 PM AKDT     8.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.76.25.75.35.35.76.47.28.18.898.57.35.63.82.21.211.52.74.367.48.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.