Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lowell Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 9:59AMSunset 3:45PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:15 AM AKST (14:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 7:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 400 Am Akst Tue Dec 10 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Tonight..N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu through Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lowell Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -149.59     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 101407 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 507 AM AKST Tue Dec 10 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Satellite imagery clearly shows a powerful storm moving northwest through the eastern Bering Sea and the coast of Southwest Alaska. This powerful low is pushing 3-4 sigmas above average in terms of precipitable water values across most of the state as a plume of warm, moist Pacific air plows across the state toward the Arctic Ocean. Powerful southeast winds, which were in excess of 80-100 MPH across parts of Southcentral mountains and gaps, have subsided dramatically, with the core of strongest winds now over Southwest Alaska, especially the Kuskokwim Delta where winds are still gusting into the 50 MPH range. The remaining atmospheric river is now stalled and weakening across eastern Prince William Sound and Cordova, with snow over Thompson Pass. Out west over the remainder of the Bering Sea, there is a widespread area of cold air advection wrapping around the powerful low, with snow showers spreading over much of the Bering.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The numerical model guidance is clustered well and in good agreement over all with the general synoptic pattern this morning. The greatest challenge comes with a developing North Pacific low moving into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday night through Thursday regarding how far and quickly it lifts northward. The Canadian, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all have slightly different timing and placement, but overall decent agreement with the general strength and impacts, so this discrepancy does not really result in much actual sensible weather difference there.

Over Southwest Alaska, a deformation band and area of rain/snow will lift northwest Tuesday night, impacting the Southwest coast from Bristol Bay to the Kusko Delta. Placement and timing differ, but this forecast favors a blend and will spread accumulating snow into the Kusko Delta by midday. This forecast favored a blend of all the models.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions with north winds less than 12 knots dominate through the TAF period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). After a very busy, record-setting weather patter the last 48 hours, things will trend much quieter as we march into the week. The strong front responsible for much of it is now moving to the north and quickly weakening across the Interior portions of AK. Winds are diminishing across the entire area and will continue to do through the day. Temperatures will remain mild and hover in the mid 30s to low 40s. The remnant energy and onshore flow will continue to produce rain over the northeastern portions of the Gulf of AK and parts of the Prince William Sound before tapering off by early Wed. A weak shortwave will clip from Kodiak Island up through the Barren Islands later today bringing more steady rain to those areas as well.

For Wed, a broad area of low pressure will move from the North Pacific into the southern Gulf of AK. This will become the dominant feature through the remainder of the week. It will slowly drift north and bring moderate-strong cyclonic (counter-clockwise) flow to the entire Gulf of AK down through Shelikof Strait. It will also serve to reinforce more warm and moist air along the Gulf Coast. Steady rain will return to many coastal locations from Cordova over to Kodiak Island. Meanwhile, easterly flow will keep inland areas dry with just passing mid and high clouds for the most part. There is no real cold air to speak of in the southern half of the state, so expect mild temperatures to continue.

HYDROLOGY. The southern Kenai Peninsula saw several inches of rain over the past 24 hours. Freezing levels have also jumped up to 3,000-4,000 feet which is making for abundant snow melt in the mountains. This has led to the Anchor River climbing well into moderate flood stage overnight. While we do not anticipate much more in the way of rainfall, warm temperatures today will continue to allow for snow melt. A Flood Warning has been issued to address this hazardous situation.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A departing low into the northern Bering this morning will keep gusty conditions along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Most areas across Southwest Alaska have temperatures above freezing, keeping any lingering precipitation falling as rain. The exception being near Hooper Bay, which will continue to see snow until the low exits the region. The next shot of precipitation will move over the Iliamna area late this morning. It will then begin to taper off later this evening.

On Wednesday, a deformation band will set up across the Southwest coastal areas. There is a bit of uncertainty in the exact timing and where heaviest amounts of precipitation will occur. With temperatures at or slightly below freezing, it looks like this event will be mostly snow, or a mix of rain and snow for locations farther south.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

As a powerful low exits our area, storm force winds north of Nunivak Island will diminish to small craft advisory by this afternoon. Meanwhile, strong westerly flow continues across much of the western and central Bering and Aleutians due to strong air advection. Snow showers will continue over much of the Bering and Aleutians through Wednesday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

. Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters .

Thursday the models have a weakening low near Bristol Bay/Eastern Bering and a mature system near Kamchatka with a surface low ranging from 971 mb - 975 mb. Friday this low is near Attu Island/Shemya and the models bring it eastward. Expect gale force winds to materialize near the Aleutians. Light to heavy freezing spray is expected near Nunivak Island on Thursday and again on Saturday.

. Gulf of Alaska .

A low will move into the region bringing widespread small crafts and the potential for gale force winds. Given the long fetch length, seas are expected to build to 20 to 25 feet on Thursday. The rough seas will linger into Friday. Currently, the expectation is that the seas will subside on Saturday but as the new model runs become available that may change. Stay tuned.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

From the onset of this forecast period, the global models are not in sync projecting the track and the intensity of a low near the mainland and a second low near Kamchatka. The NCEP RMOP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Relative Measure Of Predictability) displays large swaths of low confidence territory from the Bering to the Gulf Of Alaska and over the mainland at 72hrs and beyond. However, a few items can be gleaned from the models. Expect more cyclogenesis and unsettled weather for the Bering and the Aleutians. For the southern tier of the mainland, temperatures will be near or slightly above normal.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Warning 121. MARINE . Gale Warning 351 352 119 120 130-139 150 155 178 180 181. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . JA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . PS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 7 mi16 min N 12 G 14 42°F 998.2 hPa (-0.9)38°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 26 mi52 min 44°F998.6 hPa
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 87 mi26 min ENE 7.8 G 12 45°F 47°F15 ft998.1 hPa (-0.8)41°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK25 mi23 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F32°F96%998.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAWD

Wind History from AWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------SE16
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4Calm34NW6NW6N6S14S113CalmE33N4N4NW4NE4N4N4Calm
1 day agoS11S73N4N4N4CalmNW3N4N6N7W3SE3CalmCalmNW5CalmSW3S19
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2 days agoNW3CalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmW4NW3NE5CalmN3N8CalmN83S23
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Tide / Current Tables for Camp Cove, Aialik Bay, Alaska
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Camp Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:31 AM AKST     3.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:41 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM AKST     11.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:56 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM AKST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.78.27.15.64.13.23.24.36.38.510.411.511.510.38.25.52.60.2-1-0.613.35.87.8

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska (2)
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Seward
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:35 AM AKST     3.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:49 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM AKST     11.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:20 PM AKST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.78.37.25.84.33.33.24.36.28.410.311.511.510.48.45.72.80.4-0.8-0.613.25.77.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.