Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchor Point, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Generally expect cloudier, cooler, and breezier conditions as a Bering Sea low becomes the primary weather influence and displaces the ridge that had brought more summer-like weather to the Mainland. This will likely spell the end (at least for the next few days) of thunderstorm activity for Southwest Alaska, though much of the region will likely pick up some light rain as widespread rain showers move through. For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, expect winds up to about 20-30 kt around the weakening Bering Sea low. By Sunday afternoon, a strong Bering Sea low approaches the western Aleutians including Shemya, Amchitka and Adak, bringing widespread rain and gales across the region.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

The upper level flow for next week looks very progressive, with organized storm systems tracking from the Bering Sea to mainland Alaska. This general pattern tends to be cooler, cloudier, and wetter than normal. Nothing looks extreme for this time of year, especially for winds and precipitation amounts. Looking at the details, a large low and frontal system over the Bering Sea on Tuesday will quickly track to western Alaska Wednesday, with widespread clouds and precipitation across much of southern AK Wednesday through Thursday. As is typical, a new low will form in the Gulf Thursday and exit eastward Friday, with a drying and warming trend over southern AK as we head toward the 4th of July weekend. The one thing to watch will be potential for upper level "easterly waves" to affect Southcentral as the Gulf low exits, which could lead to additional rainfall into the weekend, especially for the Copper River Basin.

A new storm system will move out of the Pacific to the Aleutians Thursday night, then weaken over the Bering Sea Friday through Saturday. At this point, it doesn't look like there will be much impact on southern Alaska from this system. While forecast confidence is always fairly low a week or more out in time, at this point none of the model guidance shows any significant weather features for the 4th of July weekend. Instead, it looks seasonable with a chance of diurnal convection. Stay tuned.

-SEB


AVIATION

PANC...Light rain showers expected this morning. Southerly wind gusts 20 to 25 mph will continue through the early morning before becoming less than 10 mph after 16Z. Winds will flip to westerly by early this afternoon before becoming southerly again after 04Z this evening with gusts to 20 mph. Expect vicinity showers periodically through the day today.