Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 10:48PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:24 PM AKDT (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 11:14AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 345 Pm Akdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Tonight..W wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..SE wind 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon through Tue..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 300114 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 514 PM AKDT Thu Jul 29 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically stacked low remains in place over the northern Gulf. At the surface, a front associated with this low is streaming moisture inland over Southwest Alaska, bringing gusty southerly winds and rain to the Kuskowim Delta and interior Bristol Bay region. Widespread stratus continues to blanket the Bering Sea. Meanwhile along the southern Alaska Peninsula, gusty southerly flow persists with enhanced winds through the usual bays and passes. Southcentral Alaska is still somewhat under the influence of a ridge that has drifted southward over the Gulf. Persistent moisture from the front over Southwest has advected toward the northeast and kept most of Southcentral under a stratus deck through the day. Sounding data indicates a drying trend in the mid levels, and although we saw light drizzle across the Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage Bowl this morning, the drying trend continues as the upper level ridge causes subsidence, keeping most of the moisture closer to the surface in the form of widespread stratus.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Overall, model solutions are in good synoptic agreement through the short term. There are a few differences in the strength and timing of upper level waves propagating across Southcentral Friday afternoon, as we remain centered between a ridge over the Gulf and a trough over the northern Bering. This pattern often results in unsettled conditions. There is good agreement on the upper level Bering trough moving eastward through Friday, with another low developing over the northern Bering Friday night. Later in the weekend, attention shifts to a low forming over the western Aleutians Saturday night. At this time, models are hinting at a gale force low, though there is still plenty of uncertainty with regard to where this low tracks.

AVIATION.

Persistent stratus is expected to keep MVFR ceilings at the terminal through the evening. Given weak westerly winds at the surface and ample moisture streaming in from Southwest AK, thinking cloud cover will remain pushed up along Chugach Mountains, with a chance for VFR ceilings on the west side of town and at the terminal early this evening, though confidence is low. MVFR to IFR conditions will return overnight through Friday morning as several upper level waves move in from the west. Increasing dry air above the very moist boundary layer is concerning, as this is favorable for fog to develop. So would not be surprised to see some fog in the vicinity Friday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

On satellite imagery and the Bethel Radar, there is a cold front moving across Southwest Alaska. The cloud shield associated with this system is expansive and on satellite imagery it is very clear that this moisture plume has a tropical connection. Additionally, cloud coverage is riding up the backside of the high over the Gulf Of Alaska. There is no shortage of fog and stratus with this pattern. A second front will move into Southwest Alaska this weekend and that system will bring moisture to Kodiak, Katmai National Park and Cook Inlet Saturday morning. But then the models diverge with the potential trajectory of the moisture from this system.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sun afternoon) .

A cloudy, cool, wet, and breezy pattern is expected to continue for much of Southwest through the forecast period. Basically, expect periods of rain and breezy conditions to continue. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected especially across the Kuskokwim Delta through Sunday afternoon, with locally 2 inches plus where the steadiest rain sets up. Further east, the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay can expect more in the way of rain showers with some dry time tonight into Saturday. However, places like Aniak are expected to see a fairly steady rain overnight into Friday morning before becoming more showery for the rest of the day and Friday night. Another storm system moving across the Bering will enhance the southerly flow over the area Saturday bringing a steadier rain to interior locations for Saturday through Sunday morning/early afternoon. Basically, areas from King Salmon on south to Nelson Lagoon/Port Heiden will see the least amount of rain out of this pattern but still cannot rule out some rain showers moving through from time to time. Rain amounts here may not even reach 0.1" of precipitation through Sunday afternoon.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sun afternoon) .

The Bering will remain under the influence of a broad upper trough throughout the duration of the forecast period. Pieces of upper level energy will continue to rotate around the base of the upper level trough deepening it with each passing upper level wave. The first potent upper level wave moves into the northwest Bering tonight into Friday morning. This low will quickly strengthen into a compact low with high end small craft advisory winds around 30 kts with gusts to gale force. The front with this system will reach and move through the Pribilof Islands Friday evening into Saturday morning. The front will then stall as another piece of energy rounds the base of the trough and brings unsettled weather to the Western and Central Aleutians Friday night/early Saturday. While this part of the forecast is fairly certain, the intensity and exact track of this low remains uncertain at this time. Right now, generally expect small craft winds and more rain for much of the Aleutian Island Chain over the weekend. Stay tuned for subsequent updates.

Also, due to the stagnation of this pattern, southerly flow is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period. As a result, expect upslope flow to continue with plenty of rain along the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPen's south facing mountains.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday).

A Western Aleutian low intensifies as it tracks northward across the Bering Sea Sunday through Monday. An associated surface front will march eastward toward the western Alaska coast. It's looking more and more likely that there will be some gale force winds near the low center. However, confidence in the track of this storm is low, making it hard to pin down where the gales will be at. Most likely, the strongest winds would be over the Bering offshore area. Secondarily, strong southerly winds ahead of the front could bring some gale force gusts to bays and passes along the southern Alaska Peninsula Monday.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday).

A broad upper level low will continue to drive generally active weather across the Bering/Aleutians. A surface low will track from south to north over the western Bering on Tuesday. As it occludes, another low will split along its associated front and track west to east across the Aleutians through Tuesday evening bringing rain and southerly winds. Model agreement degrades thereafter, with the GFS showing the aforementioned low significantly deepening to around 975 mb and stalling west of the Pribilofs whereas the ECMWF takes the original low much farther west, thus having minimal impact on the Bering/Aleutians. An upper ridge in combination with a large surface high in the central Pacific will lead to mostly quiet conditions and warmer temperatures across much of mainland Alaska next week. If the GFS verifies with aforementioned low closer to the Pribilofs, there may be a few showers that track across Southcentral on Thursday along its eastern periphery. However, it is too early to determine, and in any case would be non-impactful.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . BL/AP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXA2 1 mi99 min SW 14 54°F 1024 hPa49°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi54 min 50°F1023.3 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi32 min WNW 13 G 16 54°F 47°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi54 min NW 9.9 1022 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi54 min S 8.9 G 11 56°F 1024 hPa46°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi31 minW 810.00 miOvercast58°F47°F67%1023.6 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi31 minVar 510.00 miOvercast58°F48°F70%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9SW8W8S7SW9SW7SW6W5W5W3SW3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3S4SW6W66W12W9W8
1 day agoW13
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W8W11W10W11W10W8W8W9W10W8W6W8W7SW7SW6SW8SW10W10W12W11W11W11W12
2 days agoW10
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W10W8W8W7W6CalmCalmNE3E3NE3NE4CalmCalmNE3E3E45W10W10W12W12W11W14

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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