Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 4:55AMSunset 11:16PM Thursday July 18, 2019 7:52 PM AKDT (03:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 314 Pm Akdt Thu Jul 18 2019
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 190023
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
423 pm akdt Thu jul 18 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A good portion of southern alaska is under the influence of an
upper level col, the "saddle point" in between the ridges and
troughs. It is characterized by weak and disorganized flow. Ridges
are attempting to build in from the yukon westward into the copper
river basin and from the bering sea eastward into southwest
alaska. So what does this mean? With warm and unstable conditions
over southcentral alaska, showers and thunderstorms will form
this afternoon and evening preferentially along the mountains.

They won't move very far or very fast, staying mainly along the
mountains and keeping the valleys mostly dry and sunnier.

Ridging over the bering into southwest alaska is producing
widespread low clouds and patchy fog. Tight pressure gradients
between high pressure in the bering and low pressure in the gulf
(along with supporting low level flow) are leading to gusty winds
along the south side of the alaska peninsula. Observations
indicate the strongest wind gusts are in the 30 to 40 kt range.

Model discussion
Models remain in fairly good agreement through the next few days,
with just some minor differences in position of large scale
features. The most challenging part of the forecast will be
determining the extent of clouds and smoke in this weak flow
regime with increasing stability (which can trap both clouds
and smoke). Overall, forecast confidence is above average.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The primary
challenge will be the smoke forecast. Light southerly flow this
evening into the overnight hours will again carry smoke northward
from the swan lake fire. Thus, there is potential for reduced
visibilities Friday morning.

Fire weather
Fire weather concerns will diminish as we head through the next
few days. Most of southwest alaska has already stabilized under
the influence of the upper ridge building in from the west and
associated intrusion of "marine air" from the bering sea.

Southcentral remains unstable, but storms will initiate primarily
over interior mountains and weak storm motion will keep them from
propagating very far. Expect cloud cover to gradually increase
each day through the weekend, leading to more stable conditions.

Thunderstorms will likely be confined to the copper river basin by
Saturday and Sunday.

Smoke from the swan lake fire did move up into the anchorage area
overnight through this morning with a light southerly surface
wind. The 12z anchorage sounding also showed a steep inversion
off the surface which trapped the smoke. The light southerly flow
and overnight inversions make it likely that periods of smoke
will persist in the anchorage area the next few days.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Ridging from the bering sea into the interior coupled with the low
over the gulf of alaska is keeping the southern mainland in the
col between these systems through Friday night, thus flow overall
is very weak. Moisture wrapping around the gulf of alaska low from
the east is staying along the coast and south of the chugach
mountains for the most part, although mid to high level moisture
is expected to advect into the copper river basin. The offshore
north flow will remain weak northerly through this evening then
the flow aloft will become weak varying from southwest to
southeast Friday. The flow then becomes weak northerly again
Saturday. The temperatures around the 5000 foot level (850 mb)
over the copper river basin to the susitna valley down across cook
inlet currently around 10 to 14 c will gradually cool to 8 to 10 c
through Saturday. This will result in lower high temperatures,
with the warmest temperatures this evening and Friday.

On the convective side, the most unstable region will be over the
susitna valley this evening and expand into the copper river basin
Friday afternoon and evening.

The return to warmer and drier conditions is allowing for
increased wild fire activity and smoke production. The increased
smoke coupled with generally light flow and overnight stable
conditions will result in more smoke across the southern mainland.

Late Friday and overnight into Saturday, weak southerly flow
should push smoke up across the anchorage area into the mat-su. Of
course, how much smoke is predicated on how active the wild fires
are.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Cloudy conditions will remain under the ridge that has made its
way across southwest alaska. Only a slight chance of thunderstorms
are in the forecast over the alaska range since there is still
instability in the models that could produce convective activity.

Onshore flow will keep the mainland under this influence for the
next few days as this stable pattern continues. This flow brought
fog to coastal areas last night into the morning hours and could
also bring stratus and fog to inland areas for tonight and
tomorrow morning. Another concern for today's forecast is the
smoke from wildfires over the kuskokwim valley into the bristol
bay region. Smoke was observed drifting from sleetmute down to the
iliamna region as northerly flow continues over the area.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Gap winds south of the akpen stretching from dutch harbor to
kodiak island were the biggest concern for today's forecast.

Observations showed northerly sustained small craft advisory
winds, with gusts reaching gale force criteria. These conditions
will last well into tomorrow before diminishing tomorrow night. Out
over the bering, winds remain below these thresholds. Stratus and
patchy fog will remain to blanket the bering and part of the
aleutians as the ridge continues to be the dominant weather
pattern.

Marine (days 3 through 5; Saturday evening through Monday)
Sub gales are expected to persist through Monday over the bering
and gulf. Seas may increase to at or near 10 feet in the western
bering by Sunday afternoon ahead of a front, but will remain
lower elsewhere. No significant systems appear likely for the
foreseeable future.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7; Sunday through Wednesday)
Long range models are similar to yesterday, in general showing an
upper level trough over siberia, a ridge over the mainland and a
pair of low pressures off the bc coast and tracking south of the
aleutians, respectively. The main challenge involves how these
systems interact. The early part of next week does not indicate a
particularly wet pattern for southcentral, though afternoon
convection may be possible over the mountains. Confidence remains
low mid-week and beyond. The GFS remains a slight outlier with
both a much stronger siberian trough and upper level gulf low
where as the european and ensembles are not as aggressive. The
gfs solution would generally bring colder temperatures and more
precipitation while the latter solutions would bring drier
conditions and more seasonable temperatures.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Sa
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Ap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi52 min 52°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi52 min 51°F1009.7 hPa (+0.0)
HMSA2 25 mi20 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 63°F 1009.6 hPa53°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi82 min W 8 63°F 1009 hPa55°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi22 min SSW 4.1 G 7 62°F 1010.5 hPa53°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi59 minWSW 87.00 miFair66°F54°F65%1010.1 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi59 minVar 37.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10SW8SW5CalmNE3NE4NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW6SW7SW7SW8SW8SW8W8W8
1 day agoW6SW5SW4CalmE3NE5W3CalmCalmNE4E3NE4NE4NE4NE3E3S4W7W8W11SW14W12W14
G20
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2 days agoE33S4CalmCalmNE3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E5E5SE4SW7SW5SW5SW5SW9W12W10

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.