Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 080204 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 604 PM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper long wave extends from over Southwest Alaska to over the Northern Gulf. This is supporting a weakening frontal zone with rain across the North Gulf and Kenai Peninsula and rain showers over Western Alaska. Interior portions of Southwest ALaska and Southcentral are seeing some cloud breaks which will allow for heating and perhaps give rise to isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A board nearly zonal upper jet extends west to east across the north Pacific. An upper short wave can be seen dropping south across the Central Bering Sea. This will be the main trigger which will support the development of a storm force low center moving into the Gulf this weekend.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

There is still some difference on the handling of the strong low moving into the Gulf Saturday night. The GFS deterministic solution still carries the low center west of the GFSensemble mean, ECMWF, NAM, and Canadian NH. Confidence in increasing toward a more eastern track portriated by the latter solutions. Also we will be leaning toward storm force winds on the northern and southern periphery of the low center.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions with isolated rain showers. Locally gusty southeast winds are expected across the airport complex this evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Downsloping is leading to skies clearing more than expected across Southcentral. This will generally persist through the evening. Scattered showers will continue across the Gulf Coast, with thunderstorms possible near higher-elevation areas over the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds up to 45 mph will occur along the Turnagain Arm, diminishing by this evening. A strong low will move into the Gulf overnight. Its front will reach the Gulf coast early Sunday morning bringing steady rain through the day. Anchorage and the Mat-Su will see a chance of rain, but are generally expected to remain mostly downsloped. Showers will track eastward over the Copper River Basin on Monday as the aforementioned low weakens inland.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Isolated thunderstorms and more showers will spread eastward and across the region tonight, with wetting rains continuing through the south of the Kuskokwim Valley and over the Alaska Range through Saturday. Thanks to a broad surface trough which extends southward from Yukon Delta through the corridor of Kilbuk Mountains, this feature is responsible for a broad area of convection and thunderstorms this evening. At Bethel, more than half an inch fell there since this morning. A shortwave impulse west of the Alaska Range will bring increasing clouds and showers near the Alaska Range before lifting northward of the forecast boundary Saturday afternoon. Overall, wet conditions will linger over the area for another day before we see improving weather settles over region.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Two separate frontal systems approaching the Bering Sea will elevate seas and winds in the coming days. First, a frontal system from Anadyr will continue to descend and move across the Bering Sea, while the second front from Northwest Pacific will make its way closer to Western Aleutians on Sunday evening. Perhaps these two separate systems will maintain at least small craft conditions, otherwise, it will be a quiet forecast period over the weekend. Stratiform clouds and fog will persist as these frontal systems enter the forecast area through the weekend.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Mon through Wed).

By Monday afternoon over the Gulf, the strong low pressure that was set up across the Northern Gulf Coast the previous few days will continue to weaken through Tuesday. Meanwhile, to the west, models remain in good agreement with a low positioned near Shemya Monday afternoon, with its associated front over the Central Bering and Aleutians. Models agree that small craft advisory level winds will accompany this system, but are in less agreement whether or not they will reach gale force strength during this time. This system weakens as it shifts eastward, with the front reaching the Southwest Coast by Wednesday. Models start to diverge on Wednesday afternoon as to whether or not a low forms south of the Aleutians, extending a front into the Gulf through late Wednesday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tue through Fri).

A low in the Western Bering will keep a showery pattern stretched across the Pribilofs and Aleutian Chain as this system progresses eastward. Mainland Alaska remains relatively dry through early Wednesday with an upper level low parked over the region. The pattern begins to shift on Wednesday afternoon when the aforementioned front reaches the Southwest coast, increasing cloud cover and the chances for widespread rain through the end of next week. Timing of this system and the placement of the low is still the biggest model uncertainty. A chance of rain remains in the forecast for Southcentral Alaska with the uncertainty in the track of this system for the end of next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALES: 119, 120, 131, 132, 351 STORMS: 352 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . AH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	24 mi	43 min			52°F		1003.2 hPa
HMSA2	25 mi	19 min	WSW 5.1 G 7	56°F			1001.2 hPa	49°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	31 mi	31 min	SSW 5.1 G 8	54°F			1003.9 hPa (+1.7)	51°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	20 mi	38 min	SW 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	56°F	51°F	84%	1003.8 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	24 mi	38 min	NW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	54°F	51°F	90%	1003.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK

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