Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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FXAK68 PAFC 041429 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 529 AM AKST Thu Mar 4 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Relatively quiet conditions are set up across Southcentral Alaska this morning as a low in the southeast Gulf dissipates. Most areas have stayed cold and clear overnight, with some fog developing over the Kenai. This pattern also persists across most Southwest Alaska where an upper level ridge continues to build over the region before a more active pattern sets up later today. However, increasing cloud cover and stronger winds are beginning to move over the Kuskokwim Delta and coastal locations as a strong front approaches the region, shifting the ridge eastward. Infrared imagery shows this aforementioned warm front keeping the active pattern of widespread precipitation and strong winds stretched from the Pribilofs and central to eastern Aleutians as it continues its eastward track towards the mainland this morning. Behind this feature, colder air is making its return in a more unstable and showery pattern across the western Bering and Aleutians.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to be in good agreement with the front that will track over Southwest Alaska today. There is better agreement with the development of the triple point low that will develop into early Friday morning near Kodiak Island. However, the biggest uncertainty remains in the amount of snowfall for Kodiak City and the Kenai Peninsula throughout the day on Friday.

AVIATION.

PANC . Freezing fog over Cook Inlet may develop again and drift into the terminal during the early morning hours, though expect fog to dissipate by late morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today through Saturday) .

A generally quiet morning is ongoing across Southcentral. The fog is much less widespread this morning, but a few wisps of it are visible over the Knik Arm, and locally near the Kenai Airport. An area of low stratus is over portions of the Copper River Basin, including Glennallen and Eureka. Gap winds are ongoing through Thompson Pass, Whittier and Seward. However, as the next front approaches today, those winds will all diminish rapidly by this afternoon.

The next weather maker moves into Southcentral tonight. The front and embedded low will first impact Kodiak Island, with snow overspreading the area from west to east. The models are struggling a bit with this low and its exact track, but there is enough agreement that snow will be the dominant precipitation type, even during the period of southeasterly winds ahead of the low. With a track off just southeast of Kodiak Island, light to moderate snow will impact all of the island, but the heaviest snow will be on the south and east facing slopes, mainly from Kodiak City south. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas for up to 7 inches of snow. Those highest snowfall totals will be near Old Harbor. As the low moves away during the day on Friday, strong northwesterly winds will take the snow and blow it around, especially near Akhiok, and any bays and passes that open to the northwest. The snow will end for most areas around noon on Friday.

Meanwhile, farther north, the forcing for snow will be from a slow-moving negatively tilted trough that will gradually approach from the west. Snow will begin across the Kenai Peninsula Friday morning, then will set up somewhere around the Cook Inlet down to Seward through Friday night. As mentioned in the Special Weather Statement for the Western Kenai Peninsula, there is considerable uncertainty as to where the heaviest snow will develop Friday night as the upper level negatively tilted trough exerts a stronger influence. This could set up anywhere from the southern Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Valley, with the happy medium area over Kenai-Soldotna and Sterling. Thus, this area is where the most snow is expected. Chances of snow have been raised for Anchorage and the Valley as well, with emphasis that the snow will be quite light, accumulating an inch or less every 3 hours and stopping at times. The key with this snowfall event will be its duration, with some areas possibly seeing frequent snow for 24 hours straight from Friday morning through Saturday morning. The weakening and shearing apart upper trough crosses the area on Saturday, ending all of the snow for all of Southcentral.

A brief period of southeasterly winds ahead of the front will help temperatures warm back to normal (generally around 30) on Friday for most areas. However, the trough passage on Saturday will allow the colder air to return, albeit briefly.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2).

A strong frontal boundary connected to Kamchatka low will bring increased snow accumulations across Southwest Alaska this morning through Thursday night. Thanks to cold air advection already in place ahead and behind the front and cold environmental temperatures that would aid producing snowfall. Strong 50-55 kt winds at 850 mb will push ashore trailing the frontal axis advancing eastward into late this afternoon. For this reason, the Blizzard Warning remains in effect from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this evening for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island. Strong winds aloft mixing with low-level winds combined with cold air advection over Bristol Bay this morning will lead to blowing snow there through late tonight around 11 pm. This expected episode will lowered visibility through most of the afternoon into tonight, so the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Bristol Bay remains in place.

The snow will gradually taper off across Nunivak Island this afternoon, by this evening for the Kuskokwim Delta, tonight for coastal Bristol Bay and by Friday morning for the Kuskokwim Valley.

The potential for coastal flooding in Bristol Bay on Friday afternoon into Saturday is closely monitored. Confidence remains low at this time. However, with the current pattern of widespread gale force westerly winds combined with long period 20-30ft swell behind this occluded front it cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2).

Large scale patterns over the Bering and south of the Aleutians will continue to play a major role producing elevated weather conditions for the area in the next two days. As the front moves inland this morning, gales and storm force winds persist over the Bering Sea and Aleutians for the next 1 to 2 days. A trough of low pressures north of western Aleutians combined with a broad area of high pressure south of the Aleutians will produce strong localized gales and storm force winds to linger there for the next day or two. At 850 mb, strong 50-65 kt winds and a broad area of cold air advection fills the Bering this morning, then pushes eastward toward Southwest Alaska through Friday night. Essentially, hazardous winds and swells will linger through the forecast period.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

Bering Sea: A Northern Bering low tracks into Northwest Alaska, and its front moves across the Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska Sat night. Widespread gale force winds and waves with some areas of storm force gusts moves into the Eastern Bering and diminishing Mon. Seas to 24 feet and heavy freezing spray subsides by Mon. Forecasts become unclear towards Mon. A new low and front moves into the Western Aleutians and Bering for Mon. Seas building to 20 feet around the Western Aleutians Mon.

Gulf of Alaska: A low exits the Gulf Sun. Strong northwesterly outflow winds from the Alaska Peninsula weaken. Model confidence is good. Widespread gale force winds and waves with an area of storm force winds near the Barren Islands and heavy freezing spray along the Alaska Peninsula diminish to small craft winds for Sun. Wave heights 22 feet over the Gulf subsiding late Sun. A new low and front enter the Western Gulf Sun night. Widespread southeasterly small craft winds spread across the Gulf. Waves building to 12 feet for Mon

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday).

Looking at the averaged big picture, models are in pretty good synoptic agreement Sunday and Monday. An upper level low will remain across the eastern portion of Siberia and is expected to have a trough dig across the Bering and Aleutian Chain late this weekend. Ahead of that trough, ridging sets up across southcentral.

Overall this means temperatures will continue to steadily climb throughout the daytime hours Sunday and Monday across much of the region. Inland areas across southcentral could see temperatures rise above freezing for the first time since the middle of January. This pattern could potentially turn into a snowier regime for Southcentral and in particular across the Anchorage Bowl. However, many factors have to come together for Anchorage to get the snow, though, the storm track looks favorable with model guidance mostly bringing lows near and into Prince William Sound with details of each uncertain.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 155. Winter Weather Advisory 161 171. MARINE . Storms 177-79 181 411 413. Gales 132 150 155 160 165 170-76 180 185 352 412 414. Heavy Freezing Spray 130 160 165 179 180 185 411 412 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CMB MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/SS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
APXA2	1 mi	109 min	NE 5.1	27°F			1007 hPa	14°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175	12 mi	64 min			38°F	1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK	24 mi	46 min			38°F		1005.1 hPa
HMSA2	25 mi	22 min	E 5.1 G 8	32°F				19°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK	26 mi	64 min	E 8				1005 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK	31 mi	34 min	N 7 G 8	32°F			1005 hPa (-1.1)	21°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK	20 mi	41 min	E 4	10.00 mi	Fair	30°F	17°F	58%	1006 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK	24 mi	41 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	22°F	66%	1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska

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Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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