Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 10:23PM Friday August 7, 2020 9:30 PM AKDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 354 Pm Akdt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Sun..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 080204 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 604 PM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper long wave extends from over Southwest Alaska to over the Northern Gulf. This is supporting a weakening frontal zone with rain across the North Gulf and Kenai Peninsula and rain showers over Western Alaska. Interior portions of Southwest ALaska and Southcentral are seeing some cloud breaks which will allow for heating and perhaps give rise to isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A board nearly zonal upper jet extends west to east across the north Pacific. An upper short wave can be seen dropping south across the Central Bering Sea. This will be the main trigger which will support the development of a storm force low center moving into the Gulf this weekend.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

There is still some difference on the handling of the strong low moving into the Gulf Saturday night. The GFS deterministic solution still carries the low center west of the GFSensemble mean, ECMWF, NAM, and Canadian NH. Confidence in increasing toward a more eastern track portriated by the latter solutions. Also we will be leaning toward storm force winds on the northern and southern periphery of the low center.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions with isolated rain showers. Locally gusty southeast winds are expected across the airport complex this evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Downsloping is leading to skies clearing more than expected across Southcentral. This will generally persist through the evening. Scattered showers will continue across the Gulf Coast, with thunderstorms possible near higher-elevation areas over the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds up to 45 mph will occur along the Turnagain Arm, diminishing by this evening. A strong low will move into the Gulf overnight. Its front will reach the Gulf coast early Sunday morning bringing steady rain through the day. Anchorage and the Mat-Su will see a chance of rain, but are generally expected to remain mostly downsloped. Showers will track eastward over the Copper River Basin on Monday as the aforementioned low weakens inland.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

Isolated thunderstorms and more showers will spread eastward and across the region tonight, with wetting rains continuing through the south of the Kuskokwim Valley and over the Alaska Range through Saturday. Thanks to a broad surface trough which extends southward from Yukon Delta through the corridor of Kilbuk Mountains, this feature is responsible for a broad area of convection and thunderstorms this evening. At Bethel, more than half an inch fell there since this morning. A shortwave impulse west of the Alaska Range will bring increasing clouds and showers near the Alaska Range before lifting northward of the forecast boundary Saturday afternoon. Overall, wet conditions will linger over the area for another day before we see improving weather settles over region.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

Two separate frontal systems approaching the Bering Sea will elevate seas and winds in the coming days. First, a frontal system from Anadyr will continue to descend and move across the Bering Sea, while the second front from Northwest Pacific will make its way closer to Western Aleutians on Sunday evening. Perhaps these two separate systems will maintain at least small craft conditions, otherwise, it will be a quiet forecast period over the weekend. Stratiform clouds and fog will persist as these frontal systems enter the forecast area through the weekend.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Mon through Wed).

By Monday afternoon over the Gulf, the strong low pressure that was set up across the Northern Gulf Coast the previous few days will continue to weaken through Tuesday. Meanwhile, to the west, models remain in good agreement with a low positioned near Shemya Monday afternoon, with its associated front over the Central Bering and Aleutians. Models agree that small craft advisory level winds will accompany this system, but are in less agreement whether or not they will reach gale force strength during this time. This system weakens as it shifts eastward, with the front reaching the Southwest Coast by Wednesday. Models start to diverge on Wednesday afternoon as to whether or not a low forms south of the Aleutians, extending a front into the Gulf through late Wednesday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tue through Fri).

A low in the Western Bering will keep a showery pattern stretched across the Pribilofs and Aleutian Chain as this system progresses eastward. Mainland Alaska remains relatively dry through early Wednesday with an upper level low parked over the region. The pattern begins to shift on Wednesday afternoon when the aforementioned front reaches the Southwest coast, increasing cloud cover and the chances for widespread rain through the end of next week. Timing of this system and the placement of the low is still the biggest model uncertainty. A chance of rain remains in the forecast for Southcentral Alaska with the uncertainty in the track of this system for the end of next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALES: 119, 120, 131, 132, 351 STORMS: 352 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BC SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . AH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi43 min 52°F1003.2 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi19 min WSW 5.1 G 7 56°F 1001.2 hPa49°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi31 min SSW 5.1 G 8 54°F 1003.9 hPa (+1.7)51°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi38 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F51°F84%1003.8 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi38 minNW 310.00 miFair54°F51°F90%1003.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAHO

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W7W6SW7CalmS3--CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW5W6SW6SW7W6SW6SW6SW6SW6
1 day agoSE9E10E7SE9E7NE4SE11
G16
CalmCalmSE7NE4N5E5E9E11E11E13E10E7E11E7E3W5W5
2 days agoSW5NW4CalmNE4NE4E5NE4NE4NE4E4NE4E5NE7E6S4W8SW10W11W13W10W6S5SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:50 AM AKDT     2.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     18.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:10 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:01 PM AKDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM AKDT     18.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.84.47.711.715.417.818.216.513.39.35.42.51.32.55.69.713.716.918.417.915.612.38.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM AKDT     2.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM AKDT     18.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:10 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:11 PM AKDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM AKDT     18.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:52 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.63.97.211.315.217.818.216.613.49.65.62.61.2259.213.416.818.417.915.712.58.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.