Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Happy Valley, AK
April 24, 2025 2:08 PM AKDT (22:08 UTC)
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![]() | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 9:49 PM Moonrise 3:52 AM Moonset 3:29 PM |
PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Thu - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.
Thu night - N wind 20 kt.
Fri through Sat - N wind 25 kt.
Sun - N wind 20 kt.
PKZ100
No data
No data
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Valley, AK

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Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet
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Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, Tide feet
Area Discussion for Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 241330 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 530 AM AKDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday Night)...
Satellite imagery reveals an occluded, mature and now-weakening low pressure system drifting northeast in the direction of Yakutat. As with yesterday, multiple shortwave troughs rotating around this low will continue to push rain and high-elevation snow into portions of Southcentral Alaska. The bulk of heavy precipitation will remain confined to the Prince William Sound region and adjacent mountains.
That said, it's likely portions of the Copper River Basin, Talkeetnas, and even areas west into Anchorage and the Mat-Su will see spotty shower activity today as the aforementioned shortwaves swing through.
Although the mid/upper-level low lifts into Yukon Friday, unsettled weather will persist as the Aleutian Low broadens and anchors cyclonic flow across the North Pacific, steering embedded shortwave troughs towards the Gulf of Alaska. One such wave and associated frontal boundary will push into the Gulf Thursday night, bringing rain and breezy conditions to Kodiak Island before reaching the southern Kenai later in the day. A more robust trough will rotate into these regions on Saturday, bringing heavier precipitation to Kodiak and then the Kenai Peninsula and eventually Prince William Sound. At the time, it appears much of the area lee of the mountains will remain downsloped and dry through the weekend.
Temperatures through the period will remain near or above average for most locations. Model guidance has been consistently too cold, so forecast temps have been raised to compensate for the recent bias. On the note, models have also been struggling to capture our near-daily convective showers across the region, perhaps owing to the cold bias and resultant lack of forecast instability. Have also raised PoPs in areas today and tomorrow to adjust for the recent bias.
-Brown
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 530 AM AKDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday Night)...
Satellite imagery reveals an occluded, mature and now-weakening low pressure system drifting northeast in the direction of Yakutat. As with yesterday, multiple shortwave troughs rotating around this low will continue to push rain and high-elevation snow into portions of Southcentral Alaska. The bulk of heavy precipitation will remain confined to the Prince William Sound region and adjacent mountains.
That said, it's likely portions of the Copper River Basin, Talkeetnas, and even areas west into Anchorage and the Mat-Su will see spotty shower activity today as the aforementioned shortwaves swing through.
Although the mid/upper-level low lifts into Yukon Friday, unsettled weather will persist as the Aleutian Low broadens and anchors cyclonic flow across the North Pacific, steering embedded shortwave troughs towards the Gulf of Alaska. One such wave and associated frontal boundary will push into the Gulf Thursday night, bringing rain and breezy conditions to Kodiak Island before reaching the southern Kenai later in the day. A more robust trough will rotate into these regions on Saturday, bringing heavier precipitation to Kodiak and then the Kenai Peninsula and eventually Prince William Sound. At the time, it appears much of the area lee of the mountains will remain downsloped and dry through the weekend.
Temperatures through the period will remain near or above average for most locations. Model guidance has been consistently too cold, so forecast temps have been raised to compensate for the recent bias. On the note, models have also been struggling to capture our near-daily convective showers across the region, perhaps owing to the cold bias and resultant lack of forecast instability. Have also raised PoPs in areas today and tomorrow to adjust for the recent bias.
-Brown
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The front of a Bering Sea system approaches the southwest mainland, bringing snow and rain mainly to the Bristol Bay area and the Wood River Mountains late on Thursday. Colder air wrapping in behind the low will sweep light snow across the western Aleutians, however, in the eastern Aleutians, temperatures will likely remain high enough to support rain. Light amounts are expected for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with little to no snow accumulation. After the front passes, much of the area will remain in a cloudy, showery regime of mixed precipitation through the weekend. The responsible low pressure system will approach the western mainland and stall between the Pribilof Islands and Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. Widespread gales over water are expected to weaken as the front reaches the mainland. Gap winds won't be very strong across the Alaska Peninsula, though there may be some enhancement through channeled terrain.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...
The long term continues to be characterized by upper level troughing over the Bering, leading to an active weather pattern for the Aleutians and southern mainland Alaska. An upper level shortwave will traverse northwards across Southwest Alaska as a closed upper low slides eastward towards the eastern Bering by Monday morning. A surface low lifting from the AKPen into the eastern Bering looks to bring a wave of precipitation across Southwest and the AKPen through Monday, likely beginning as rain for lower elevations before transitioning over to snow as precipitation from this system tapers off. This low sends its front across the Gulf and Southcentral bringing rain to Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast and snow to higher elevations through Tuesday morning as the front pushes inland. Precipitation associated with this system is expected to be predominantly light, though locally moderate rainfall is possible along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound.
By Monday morning, an upper level low lifting out of the North Pacific supports a deepening surface low south of the western and central Aleutians. This low is expected to continue to track eastward south of the Aleutians and AKPen through the remainder of the forecast period. Some light precipitation is possible for the Aleutians as the system skirts to the south of the island chain through the early part of next week, though even a slight shift in the track to the south may limit precipitation. As the low nears the Gulf, the focus for Tuesday into Wednesday shifts towards another round of potentially heavier precipitation for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and northern Gulf coast. The greatest chance for heavy rain and snow at elevation will likely again be along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound given the southeasterly flow in the Gulf. Northwesterly flow and cold air advection on the back side of the low may enhance northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen Tuesday into Wednesday.
-JH
AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period. Through Thursday afternoon, there is a small chance that ceilings could briefly drop to MVFR if a shower passes over the terminal. A weak Turnagain Arm wind is expected to set up also on Thursday afternoon, but this may fail to materialize if pressure gradients do not align correctly.
The front of a Bering Sea system approaches the southwest mainland, bringing snow and rain mainly to the Bristol Bay area and the Wood River Mountains late on Thursday. Colder air wrapping in behind the low will sweep light snow across the western Aleutians, however, in the eastern Aleutians, temperatures will likely remain high enough to support rain. Light amounts are expected for the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with little to no snow accumulation. After the front passes, much of the area will remain in a cloudy, showery regime of mixed precipitation through the weekend. The responsible low pressure system will approach the western mainland and stall between the Pribilof Islands and Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. Widespread gales over water are expected to weaken as the front reaches the mainland. Gap winds won't be very strong across the Alaska Peninsula, though there may be some enhancement through channeled terrain.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...
The long term continues to be characterized by upper level troughing over the Bering, leading to an active weather pattern for the Aleutians and southern mainland Alaska. An upper level shortwave will traverse northwards across Southwest Alaska as a closed upper low slides eastward towards the eastern Bering by Monday morning. A surface low lifting from the AKPen into the eastern Bering looks to bring a wave of precipitation across Southwest and the AKPen through Monday, likely beginning as rain for lower elevations before transitioning over to snow as precipitation from this system tapers off. This low sends its front across the Gulf and Southcentral bringing rain to Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf coast and snow to higher elevations through Tuesday morning as the front pushes inland. Precipitation associated with this system is expected to be predominantly light, though locally moderate rainfall is possible along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound.
By Monday morning, an upper level low lifting out of the North Pacific supports a deepening surface low south of the western and central Aleutians. This low is expected to continue to track eastward south of the Aleutians and AKPen through the remainder of the forecast period. Some light precipitation is possible for the Aleutians as the system skirts to the south of the island chain through the early part of next week, though even a slight shift in the track to the south may limit precipitation. As the low nears the Gulf, the focus for Tuesday into Wednesday shifts towards another round of potentially heavier precipitation for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and northern Gulf coast. The greatest chance for heavy rain and snow at elevation will likely again be along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound given the southeasterly flow in the Gulf. Northwesterly flow and cold air advection on the back side of the low may enhance northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and AKPen Tuesday into Wednesday.
-JH
AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period. Through Thursday afternoon, there is a small chance that ceilings could briefly drop to MVFR if a shower passes over the terminal. A weak Turnagain Arm wind is expected to set up also on Thursday afternoon, but this may fail to materialize if pressure gradients do not align correctly.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
APXA2 | 19 mi | 83 min | SSW 8.9 | 44°F | 29.80 | 38°F | ||
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 | 30 mi | 68 min | 44°F | 1 ft | ||||
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK | 33 mi | 98 min | ENE 1.9 | 29.83 | ||||
HMSA2 | 33 mi | 36 min | WSW 2.9G | 48°F | 35°F | |||
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK | 40 mi | 50 min | 42°F | 29.81 | ||||
KNXA2 | 44 mi | 36 min | WSW 4.1G | 43°F | 39°F | |||
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK | 49 mi | 50 min | S 7G | 42°F | 41°F | 29.81 |
Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for PAHO
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for PAHO
Wind History Graph: AHO
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Alaska
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