Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Happy Valley, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday)...

Synoptically speaking, the main feature at hand is an upper level low slowly moving southward over the Southwest Interior. With it bringing in colder air aloft, lapse rates have steepened, which will allow for shower activity to be on the increase this afternoon. An occluded low moving northward across the Gulf is interacting with this low in the upper levels by creating a deformation precipitation band, which will begin to pivot across the eastern fringes of Southwest Alaska through this afternoon with rain/snow.

Elsewhere, the main weather players consist of surface high pressure centered across the eastern Bering, a decaying, remnant front/trough west of the Pribilofs, and a Kamchatka low pressure system moving closer to the Western Aleutians.

As we go into Sunday morning, the deformation band of precipitation looks to continue to move westward across Lime Village and points southward while the Gulf low nears the Gulf coast and the upper level low over the Southwest becomes quasi- stationary. Model guidance Sunday morning also shows convective showers forming across the Kuskokwim Delta and most of the Southwest Interior Sunday morning. Temperatures will be cold enough during the morning hours to support snow showers, but rain will begin to mix in as surface temperatures warm to near 40F for Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, looking westward, the Kamchatka front moves across the Western Aleutians with rainfall and gusty winds Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Current thinking is that the front will be on a weakening trend as it moves across the area, but still high end small craft with gusts to gale force winds are still likely from Shemya to Adak. Models show the front weakening further Monday morning and becoming increasingly elongated as it does so while the parent low moves southeastward and tracks along the Aleutian Chain.

-AM



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and progressive pattern through the long term forecast.

The front from an unseasonable Bering low will generate heavy rainfall over Eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound on Tuesday. The low progresses eastward to the AK Pen by Tuesday morning, south of Kodiak Island Wednesday morning, then reaching the Gulf overnight Wednesday. Periods of wind and rain will be generated along the path of the low, including the Northern Gulf Coast.

An upper level low coming out of Kamchatka arrives in the Bering Sea Thursday morning and dissipates rapidly. A North Pacific low travels to the south of the Aluetian Islands. There is little confidence on the strength or exact track of the system.

AVIATION

PANC...Cloud ceilings below 5000 ft expected until ~18Z. Light rain will continue this morning, becoming showery in the afternoon. North winds will flip to southerly after 01Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.