Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ninilchik, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Despite a large 962mb low spinning away east of the Pribs this afternoon, weather across the area continues to improve from the previous days. Across Bristol Bay, warm southerly winds are bringing in a mix of rain and snow snow near the coast. Deeper into the YK Delta, light snow will continue to fall as the warm moist air feeds into the colder region. This low will continue to drift to the southeast overnight, eventually moving inland near Dillingham Thursday morning. The back side of this will usher the warmer temperatures out as colder arctic air races south. Along the west coast, there may be times of blowing snow overnight and into Thursday as freshly falling (and light) snow will be lofted by the 20 to 30 mph winds. By Thursday afternoon and evening, weak ridging will bring further calm to the mainland with pockets of blue sky showing before sunset.

Moving into the weekend, the next weather maker will slide across the Bering from west to east. This all stems from a low barreling towards Kamchatka. Extending south and east from this low is a rather expansive occluded front that will eventually develop a triple point low near St. Paul. This will bring warm air, winds and rain to all of the Aleutians. Shemya will likely see storm force winds at the onset, though winds will weaken to gales by the the time the front reaches Adak. Another developing low will ride the coat tails of this front and while being added by the strengthening occlusion, will bring stronger winds to the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN by Saturday morning. The weekend will see the return to unsettled weather as precipitation of many forms will move back on land.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through Wednesday)...

Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the Pacific with shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis this weekend into early next week. A low pressure system and its accompanying front move through Southwest Alaska Saturday. The main threat with this system at this time looks to be the potential for moderate snowfall across interior Southwest Alaska, rain mixing with snow along the coast, and rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula. This system crosses the AKPen and moves into the Gulf Saturday night and quickly continues toward Southeast Alaska on Sunday. With slight weakening as it crosses the AKPen and a deepening shortwave, there is an increased chance for snowfall across Southcentral Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure under a Bering ridge moves in behind the low which tightens the pressure gradient in the southern AKPen and Barren Islands. This will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds Sunday into Monday.

The Bering ridge moves over Southcentral Monday before a second progressive shortwave moves through the AKPen and breaks it down Monday night. This brings increased chances for precipitation Monday across Southwest and Tuesday across coastal Southcentral. A surface low develops in the western Gulf Tuesday, resulting in another tight pressure gradient which will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds from the AKPen through the Barren Islands. Models continue ridging over the Pacific through midweek with weak waves traversing over the Aleutian Chain. However, there is divergence on the timing of waves over the Aleutians and the movement of an Arctic trough southwards from northern Alaska.
These details will become more clear in the coming days.

PA



AVIATION

PANC...The latest in a series of upper level short-waves has crossed Anchorage, which will lead to a break in snow showers along with VFR ceilings through at least 09Z. If there is enough of a break in lower cloud decks in the vicinity of the terminal patchy fog could form, but unlikely to affect the airport.
Forecast confidence drops overnight in whether the airport will see snow showers and reduced ceiling/vis. Periods of light snow showers are most likely between 09Z and 18Z. Even if showers don't affect the terminal, there is higher confidence in a period of MVFR ceilings. Then expect slowly improving conditions during the day Thursday.

-SEB