Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seward, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The overall pattern remains the same, ridging in the western Bering and troughing over Southwest Alaska. An upper level Arctic low continues to drop through the Southwest Mainland, allowing for increased wind speeds in the East Bering, as well as snow showers downstream of areas of open water. Northerly gap winds up to gale force in strength will continue to blow through gaps and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas through Sunday due to cold air advection and troughing from the north.
Heavy freezing spray remains in marine areas wherever winds are gusty in the aforementioned regions. Extreme freezing spray is likely along the ice edge and out of bays and passes until Friday.
As the low moves south into the North Pacific over the weekend, winds speeds will slowly decrease.

Colder air remains in the Southwest Mainland due to the influence of the Arctic low. Low temperatures plummet into the negative teens for much of the mainland and potentially the negative 20s for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley tonight. Gusty winds will allow for very cold wind chills near -40F in the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes. As such, Cold Weather Advisories remain in place for these areas. Temperatures will begin to warm by Saturday as the upper low exits south. Snow showers are continuing from Cold Bay to Nikolski. These showers coinciding with gusty northerly winds may promote blowing snow conditions through the end of the week. Reductions in visibility from this blowing snow potential will depend on local snowfall rates and wind speeds. Meanwhile a front moves into the Shemya area by Friday and remains stationary through the weekend. This front will bring gale force winds and rain/snow to the Western Aleutians.

-JAR/CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

High pressure strengthens across the Bering Sea, Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. Rain/snow and up to 40 mph winds will be possible from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning from Shemya to Atka. A second front will begin sweeping eastward across the Aleutians Thursday morning.

For the Southwest mainland, eastern Bering Sea, and Alaska Peninsula, expect northerly flow to continue with shortwave troughs that could bring periods of light snow showers. These showers will be more probable near and off the ice edge in the Bering,at higher elevations, and near coastlines. Winds through the eastern Bering Sea/Bristol Bay and through the terrain gaps along the Alaska Peninsula will likely continue to remain gusty with the cold air advecting across the area.

For Southcentral, low pressure will remain over the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This will sustain cold, dry, northerly flow with enhanced gap winds. Any snowfall should remain light and confined primarily to along coastal mountain ranges.
Temperatures may start to moderate this weekend, but will remain below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

PANC...Snow showers are wrapped around a low that is tracking from est to west across the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. The result will be for periods of snow showers that could briefly reduce conditions to IFR followed by periods of good VFR. This pattern will shift to more VRF than snow showers overnight, though there remains the potential for the development of another low overnight into tomorrow that takes a similar path and brings in MVFR snow showers late tonight into Friday.

With the lows remaining south of the airport, expect winds to remain from a northerly direction through Friday.