Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 9:31PM Sunday August 25, 2019 3:01 AM AKDT (11:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 335 Pm Akdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Tonight..N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Smoke.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Smoke.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
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location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250039
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
439 pm akdt Sat aug 24 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The arctic jet and its associated trough are moving east with
little fanfare. The main event remains well to the south in the
form of the pacific jet which is well offshore and out of reach
for any sensible help for the mainlands ongoing drought and fire
activity.

An upper-level low over the southern bering west of bristol bay is
showing signs of joining the pacific jet as it drifts toward the
akpen.

At the surface, a weak low sits just outside of prince william
sound and a stationary boundary is falling apart over the yukon
valley. A trough extends out from the kuskokwim delta to just
south of the pribilof islands directly under the bering sea
upper- level low. The ragged circulation was raining over cold bay
with spotty convection showing up on goes17 from akutan to false
pass. Most other regions were mostly sunny to start with fair
weather cumulus developing over higher terrain by midday.

Satellite imagery shows smoke from the swan lake fire now being
directed south and east into the kenai mountains and seward. A
dense smoke advisory continues for the kenai peninsula. A flood
advisory for the snow glacier dammed lake release also remains in
effect.

Model discussion
The models remain in agreement through Monday with the main highs
and lows surrounding the region. The main forecast challenges will
surround the development of southerly winds through turnagain arm
and into the susitna valley as the surface low drifts south along
the kenai fjords. Concerns surround the movement and density of
any wildfire smoke for anchorage and valley locations.

Little change from persistence is seen with high pressure
hovering near the aleutians.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
tonight. Southerly winds will return Sunday and smoke will likely
lower visibility in the aerodrome as soon as that commences.

Turnagain arm winds are expected to develop in the afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
The shortwave that brought gusty gaps winds to the area will
continue to push off to the east tonight which will work to
diminish winds through the night. Lingering showers over the
mountains will also diminish as the shortwave leaves. With light
winds over the kenai peninsula expected overnight smoke will
continue to be an issue for interior areas of the peninsula. Dense
smoke advisories have been issued for these areas.

On Sunday the flow will switch to the south with turnagain arm winds
ramping up as well. The up inlet gradient will increase in the
afternoon helping to bend in turnagain arm winds over western
anchorage. The overall southerly winds will also help to bring
smoke back over anchorage and the matanuska and susitna valleys,
with the worst conditions expected Sunday night into Monday
morning. The winds will taper off Sunday night as a low that will
form in the western gulf tracks to the east changing the pressure
gradient across southcentral alaska. Dry conditions with light
winds will last into Tuesday.

Fire weather
Low lying areas around southcentral alaska are expected to see dry
conditions into Tuesday with only a slight chance of rain Sunday
afternoon. There is also a chance to see isolated wet
thunderstorms over the wrangell mountains this evening. Winds will
stay light tonight but become southerly and increase in speed on
Sunday. The strongest winds will be through turnagain arm and are
expected to bend over western anchorage in the afternoon. The
winds will then diminish again Sunday night and remain light
through Tuesday. Temperatures for the most part will stay around
normals with Sunday being slightly cooler due to increased cloud
cover.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (through Tuesday)
Overnight into Sunday, the marine layer from the bering sea will
try to make a push into the kuskokwim delta, bringing cloudier and
moister conditions. About the same time, a weak disturbance will
drop in from the bering strait region, but likely won't squeeze
out any precipitation. The best chance for that happening would be
along the aleutian alaska range on Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
fairly light winds will dominate with fair weather clouds popping
during the afternoon. Radiation cooling during the overnight hours
will facilitate patchy fog development, especially in river
valleys along the coast.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (through Tuesday)
An upper level low pressure system spinning over the alaska
peninsula will bring numerous showers to the area. The cold
temperatures aloft associated with the system could bring an
isolated thunderstorm overnight as well. Otherwise quiet
conditions will remain until Monday when a front move into the
western bering sea, slowly progressing eastward through mid-week.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)
There is the possibility of a gale force low moving toward the
central aleutians Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, model
solutions still differ on this low, thus lower confidence in
gales moving into the central aleutians and central to eastern bering
sea Wednesday and Thursday.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)
The upper level pattern beginning Wednesday has a broad trough
across the bering sea with zonal flow across the top of the upper
level ridge. The trend into the weekend is for the trough to dig
south to the alaska peninsula while the upper ridge amplifies in
the eastern gulf of alaska into the mainland. There is significant
disagreement in the model solutions with regard to how far south
and east the trough digs and whether a strong upper closed low
will be south of the gulf of alaska or this remains an upper
trough. Current thinking is to maintain the upper trough solution
as opposed to a closed upper low moving into the gulf of alaska.

Bottom line is the ensemble or compromise solutions support cool
moist weather across southwest alaska while south central alaska
remains in the drier flow, although temperatures should be cooler
and cloud cover will be increasing. Confidence in the forecast
beyond Thursday is low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Dense smoke advisory: 121 125.

Flood advisory: 121 125.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ds
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mtl
marine long term... Sa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi49 min 58°F1010.8 hPa
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi31 min N 8 G 8.9 56°F 1011.3 hPa52°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 77 mi71 min N 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 54°F1012.6 hPa (+2.9)48°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi68 minN 52.00 miFog/Mist45°F42°F90%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAMR

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3NW4W5W6NW4SW4W7NW7NW6W6W5CalmSE3E4CalmCalmE3
1 day agoS4S3S3CalmCalmS3W5SW4W4W5W4CalmNW7W5W11W6W6W4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoCalmE4CalmSE4CalmN4CalmNW4NW4W75W4NW4NW6W5W7W6SW3CalmE3E3CalmE3E4

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska
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Seward
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Sun -- 12:25 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:31 AM AKDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM AKDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM AKDT     4.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:30 PM AKDT     9.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.43.82.51.81.82.33.34.55.76.56.86.66.15.44.74.44.75.46.57.88.99.69.68.9

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Bay, North end, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.