Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 8:46PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 10:45 AM AKDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 349 Am Akdt Tue Mar 31 2020
Today..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
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location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 311253 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 453 AM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Mainland Alaska is dominated by an upper level high that is keeping weather rather quiet. A weak surface low southwest of Cold Bay is bringing some rain to the eastern Aleutians, while the Alaska Peninsula and coastal southwestern Alaska are seeing a bit of light snow.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue their agreement with the track of a triple point low bringing it ashore near Cape Newenham Wednesday along with the front hanging up west of the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges Wednesday night. Models still in agreement with storm system tracking across the western Bering on Wednesday. Models agreeing on an area of precipitation activity setting up in southwest Alaska Thursday on the northern edge of a persistent upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Alaska.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). An upper level high over southwest Alaska this morning will move east into Southcentral today, bringing sunny skies and continued cool temperatures to the area. The surface gradient has weakened considerably, and winds will be fairly light. The ridge will stall over Southcentral tonight through Wednesday night, with the axis settling in just east of 150 degrees west longitude. This will open up southwesterly flow aloft, bringing some moisture into the area. Clouds will increase, and some precipitation is possible from the ridge axis westward by later Wednesday through Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning) .

A weakening front will continue pushing to the east slowly this morning with a few snow showers associated with it. Any activity in the low elevations will dissipate by the mid to late morning hours with snow showers continuing across the Kilbuck Mountains into the afternoon hours.

The main story will be a new low forming along this front south of Cold Bay this morning. This low is expected to track northward towards Cape Newenham Wednesday morning, then north into the Kuskokwim Delta and western Alaska. The exact track of this low will still determine the precipitation types for the Bristol Bay region for this event. Model guidance has come into better agreement that this low will track over Cape Newenham, though, any wobble in the track east will allow for more snowfall to occur in the Dillingham area with less snow and more mixing or even a change to rain if the low tracks slightly farther west. The wobble to the west is looking less likely. Therefore, kept the forecast leaning towards Dillingham remaining mostly snow for this event. No changes were made to the snowfall forecast as the low position still hasn't really changed from the morning package. Until this low starts moving northward, the exact track will mean everything as to the precipitation type and how much downsloping occurs around Iliamna and King Salmon. It appears that Iliamna and the Aniak to Sleetmute areas will remain all snow for this event. King Salmon will have enough warm air push in to change to all rain Wednesday morning through early Thursday before changing back to snow as colder air comes back in.

Another low will move northeast towards western Alaska with a front extending to the south that will bring another round of precipitation to the region in the form of snow Thursday afternoon to Friday morning for the Kuskokwim Delta.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning) .

A dissipating front over the eastern Bering will continue moving onshore in Southwest Alaska this morning. A low south of Cold Bay this morning will lift northward to near Cape Newenham Wednesday morning, then into mainland Alaska. Impacts from this low will primarily be felt over Southwest Alaska.

A low will move over the northern Bering on Thursday morning, with some potential for areas of gale force winds across the waters around Saint Matthew Island. This low will send a front across the northern Bering and into Southwest Alaska Thursday afternoon. Behind this front, another surge of cold air is expected that will bring gusty winds to the northern Bering.

A much stronger front moves into the western Aleutians during the day on Thursday. Gale force winds and high seas are possible with this feature, as well as a good push of warm air.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday).

Bering Sea and Aleutians . On Wednesday, there is better model agreement today with the front entering the northwestern Bering. Winds are forecasted below gale force at this time, but there will likely be gale force winds and widespread precipitation accompanying this system that is showing a stronger signal than yesterday's model runs. Thus, confidence is improving in the track and intensity of this low. Impacts of this in the eastern Bering are minimal as the front is expected to dissipate before reaching that area through Thursday.

Gulf of Alaska . There is a chance of small craft southeasterly winds across the western Gulf on Wednesday associated with a low over Bristol Bay. Confidence in these small craft winds is low as there are significant differences in solutions for the low track and intensity. For Thursday there is low confidence in the wind forecast, though the weather pattern is expected to remain benign.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Wednesday through Sunday) .

Guidance is consistent with an upper level ridge extending across the Alaskan mainland on Wednesday as an upper trough is present over the Bering/Aleutians. Due to this, temperatures will be warmer with a benign weather pattern over the Alaskan mainland and cooler with a more active weather pattern over the Bering/Aleutians. Uncertainty increases into Thursday as guidance shows a higher degree of variation in solutions with upper level synoptic features which will affect the placement and intensity of surface synoptic features. The only area of consistency is the upper level ridging will continue over the eastern Alaskan mainland near the AlCan border and thus, expect warm temperatures and quiet weather for that region. Very low forecast confidence exists overall Friday through Sunday as major differences in upper level synoptic features exist between guidance which is causing significant differences in the placement of surface features causing a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale 178. Heavy Freezing Spray 160. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . LTB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . SEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi52 min 39°F1023.9 hPa
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi46 min NNW 11 G 13 30°F 1023.6 hPa (+1.6)11°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi53 minN 710.00 miFair25°F5°F42%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAMR

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S3SW6SE3CalmCalmW6SW4CalmW3CalmSE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmE4CalmCalmN3
1 day agoCalmCalmSE3SE5N11
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N10N10N5CalmCalmE3E5N3CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska
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Seward
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:47 AM AKDT     9.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:20 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:56 PM AKDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM AKDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.75.87.28.49.29.48.97.76.14.32.81.71.41.82.73.95.166.56.66.25.65.1

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Bay, North end, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.