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PKZ763 Kuskokwim Delta And Etolin Strait Out To 15 Nm- 320 Am Akst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory through Friday...
Today..W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
Tonight..W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri..W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Fri night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
Mon..N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

FXAK69 PAFG 071328 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 428 AM AKST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled pattern remains for the West Coast as a low spins over the Bering Strait this morning. Snow and wind is likely for portions of the West Coast as the low traverses south to the YK Delta. The light snow we had in the Interior yesterday has moved off to the east leading to a predominantly dry day. Stratus and fog will be the story the North Slope this morning, but there will be some clearing during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Upper levels and Analysis...
A 488 decameter low west of Nome will do a loop over to Diomede and southeast towards the YK Delta by tomorrow morning as a 496 decameter low. As this is happening, southwesterly flow in the Interior will be turning more southerly as the trough turns negatively tilted. Tomorrow, a front associated with this low will be shifting northeast and pass through the AK Range during the midday hours, then over the Interior during the afternoon.
Looking towards the weekend, several shortwaves will travel from south to north as the trough continues to spin over the Southwestern Interior. We will be monitoring these waves of upper level energy as they rotate around the low into our area.

Surface Analysis...
A strong, occluded 981 mb low W of Nome with an occluded front extending east over Nome and southeast to Stebbins. From there, a warm front extends east/southeast to Takotna and a cold front extends south into Bristol Bay. A 1008 mb high is placed over the Eastern Interior and a 994 mb low is stationed over Prince William Sound. Light snow has been around the Interior but is moving east and drying up, leading to a drier day in the Central and Eastern Interior today. The West Coast has been under the influence of the strong low which has brought moderate snow and strong wind resulting in blowing snow, as this low pivots southward later today, winds will shift northerly over the Bering Strait and St.
Lawrence Island bringing heavy snow squalls. The North Slope is quiet and other than stratus/fog this morning, it should be clearing up a bit this afternoon as dry air intrudes.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong low bringing snow and wind is currently west of Nome and will move up towards Diomede this morning, then southeast to the YK Delta by tomorrow morning. Areas of snow and wind will continue to move through the West Coast and Western Interior today and tomorrow as the low moves, and a strong pressure gradient will develop on the backside of the low giving gales to the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island. Heavy snow squalls are expected and will come with whiteout conditions at times in Diomede, along the Bering Strait Coast and St. Lawrence Island. Several inches of snow are likely for these areas, as well as wind gusts to 60 mph tonight into tomorrow. This will continue through the weekend while most other locations gradually dry out.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Outside of a few early flurries this morning, the high overhead will dry out the area today. This evening and tonight, a front associated with the West Coast low will pivot northward over the AK Range bringing increasing southerly wind through Isabel Pass.
S wind will occasionally gust to 60 mph resulting in areas of blowing snow. The wind will weaken gradually Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, light snow is expected in the Interior as this front progresses northward. It should arrive by midday Friday from Rampart to Fairbanks to Delta Junction, then move northward to Bettles, Birch Creek, and Eagle by Friday evening. In general, an inch or less of snow is expected across the Interior. The front slows up a bit Friday night with lingering light snow and flurries from Bettles to Venetie northward during the morning on Saturday while the remainder of the Interior tries to clear out and cool down. On Sunday, a second front moves northward during the afternoon and evening, and there is a slight chance for light snow in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A bit of clearing will occur this afternoon across the North Slope ahead of a front moving north. Clouds will increase tonight from Deadhorse east while areas to the west mainly have some high clouds. The front will arrive Friday evening in the southern Brooks Range then gradually progress northward Friday night with light snow expected from Deadhorse to Kaktovik Saturday morning.
Light snow will linger through the day and overnight before ending Sunday morning. Overall, 1-2 inches of snow is expected in the Brooks Range south and east of Anaktuvuk Pass and around an inch or less along the Eastern North Slope. Stratus with areas of fog will take over once again on Sunday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
It looks to be much colder than we've seen lately and the coldest of the season so far for many locations, especially the West Coast and Western Interior Sunday night into Monday. The pattern looks to consist of troughing over the state which would bring more in the way of Arctic air to the West Coast and Western Interior with some moderating and chances for Interior snow by midweek. Details are still being ironed out and we will continue to monitor the evolving pattern as it is volatile.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-851-854- 856-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.

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Apokak Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:39 AM AKST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM AKST     8.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:36 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:36 PM AKST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM AKST     9.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Apokak Creek entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Kuskokwak Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM AKST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM AKST     8.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:35 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:06 PM AKST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:44 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:35 PM AKST     9.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kuskokwak Creek entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

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