Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Clam Gulch, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:16AMSunset 6:09PM Sunday February 23, 2020 7:02 AM AKST (16:02 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 426 Am Akst Sun Feb 23 2020
Today..SW wind 10 kt.
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt.
Mon..NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Mon night..N wind 25 kt.
Tue..N wind 25 kt.
Wed..NE wind 15 kt.
Thu..N wind 10 kt.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clam Gulch, AK
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location: 60.23, -151.48     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 231434 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 534 AM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level trough extends from a low north of the Bering Strait and has interacted with a stacked low in the Gulf of Alaska, sparking some snow showers for much of Southcentral Alaska in the overnight hours. The upper trough is responsible for clouds over much of Southwest Alaska, including some fog in the Kusko Delta. An upper level ridge has built into western Alaska ahead of the north Pacific low that is bringing some stronger winds and rain to Dutch Harbor this morning. An area of deformation west of the Pribilofs has brought a few snow showers to the area this morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models have come into somewhat of a consensus with each other and agree on low placement up to Monday night. Leading into Tuesday morning, there begins to be some disagreement with the low's location as it enters the southern Gulf. However, strength still seems to be generally agreed upon in the 975 mb range as it enters the Gulf.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds to 20kts will continue through this afternoon.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). (Today through Monday evening)

The main story in the short term will be cooling conditions with strong outflow winds developing. Early this morning, the rough axis aloft is beginning to move into the western Susitna Valley and Cook Inlet, and this feature will continue eastward through the day, reaching the ALCAN border by Monday evening. As this feature moves overhead, drier and colder air will follow in its wake.

This feature will also allow the winds to rapidly increase for the Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay, Valdez Narrows, and Copper River Delta. The wind will also really get going for Thompson pass, where winds peaking near 50 mph look like a good possibility as the colder air funnels down the Copper Basin. Here, visibilities will likely be significantly reduced, and a Winter Storm Watch issuance is a distinct probability in the next couple forecast cycles.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

An upper level wave that has brought snow showers to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast overnight continues to push inland today. Behind this feature, an upper level ridge, with surface high pressure, quickly moves in across Southwest Alaska through Monday. This will help to keep clear skies, along with cooler temperatures today into the beginning of the week. By Tuesday afternoon, the next front approaches from the North Pacific towards interior Bristol Bay, which will help to increase cloud cover and warm temperatures slightly. This front will also increase the chance for precipitation in the southern parts of Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

As one gale force low departs the western Aleutians back into the North Pacific this morning, another strong system lifting northward quickly approaches the central and eastern Aleutians by this afternoon. This front will be stronger than the previous one, even bringing a short period of easterly storm force winds this afternoon to coastal zones south of the Aleutian Chain near Dutch Harbor. There is still some model uncertainty whether the strong winds and gusts will make it into Unalaska, along with the potential for snow showers.

By Monday, this strong low diminishes, but another system south of Shemya will help to keep widespread gale force winds across much of the Bering and Aleutians through Tuesday. High pressure over the eastern Bering will help to keep any precipitation (rain and snow showers) limited to areas west of the Pribilofs and also along the Aleutians through the next few days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

A low tracking north into the Gulf Tue will continue to bring widespread gales along the northern Gulf Coast and south of the AKPEN, with areas of storm force winds in Shelikof Strait and east of Kodiak Island. Meanwhile, expect widespread small craft advisory level conditions over the Bering Sea with broad easterly flow under high pressure. The Gulf low will weaken Wed. Depending on the low track, a barrier jet could develop and bring easterly gales Wed. Winds will decrease and seas will subside Wed into Thu over the Bering Sea.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

A weakening low in the Gulf will continue to bring precipitation along the North Gulf Coast Wed, then gradually exit to the eastern Gulf Thu. Farther north, expect persistent mostly dry weather, though clouds streaming in from the Gulf should make for mostly cloudy skies over Southcentral Wed and Thu. Thu into Sat, a strengthening Arctic high will bring colder than normal conditions and clear skies. Looking farther west, expect mostly dry, colder than normal weather through Fri over the Southwest mainland. A series of compact lows will track across the Aleutians, bringing periods of unsettled weather. A strong low will move into the western Bering Sat.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Storm Warning 132 150 172 174 352 Gale Warning 120 121 127 128 130 131 136 138 155 165 170 171 173 175 176 178 351 414 Heavy Freezing Spray 119 121 126 127 129 130 139 150

FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . LTB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PD SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 32 mi51 min NE 5.1 G 6 15°F 29°F1016.6 hPa
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 44 mi33 min NE 9.9 20°F 1014 hPa13°F
HMSA2 44 mi21 min NE 8.9 G 15 20°F 1012.9 hPa13°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenai, Kenai Municipal Airport, AK26 mi70 minN 010.00 miOvercast13°F7°F77%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAEN

Wind History from AEN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N8N6NW7NW7NW5NW4NW4NW6NW3NW5N4N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS8S11S13S12S10S12S11S10S12S13S11S11SE10SE8SE9S8SE9S9S9S8S7SE3E3E3
2 days agoN12N10N18N18N18N18
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N18N15N11N8NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmS3S4S4S7S12

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.