Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 8:51PM Thursday April 2, 2020 8:22 AM AKDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 5:04AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 341 Am Akdt Thu Apr 2 2020
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Fri night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK
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location: 60.38, -145.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 021301 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 AM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The complex pattern of upper level features that has been with us for several days churns on with an upper level ridge still in place in the western Gulf and double upper lows in the north Pacific interacting with a frontal boundary associated with a Siberian low. Sensible weather has been fog and stratus in the Kuskokwim Delta, rain and stratus in Bristol Bay, light snow in the cold air behind the front in the eastern Aleutians, some rain falling on the western edge of the Kenai Peninsula, snow showers reaching into the Susitna Valley, and snow in the Anchorage metro area.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement for most features looks pretty consistent until Saturday afternoon, where tracks for the Bering low begin to deviate. However, does look like western Alaska remains in same general flow pattern with various model solutions as the low tracks ashore. The southerly extent of precipitation into Bristol Bay could be of concern here, as well as precipitation types with a long fetch of southwest flow.

AVIATION.

PANC . Expect light snow at the terminal. Low level flow will shift to south- southwest during the day, so while snow will remain light, ceilings will likely drop. Generally expect MVFR conditions. If conditions do drop to IFR, it should be brief in nature.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). An upper level trough will move into Southcentral today and tonight. This will bring precipitation to the area, spreading from west to east. Temperatures aloft are cold enough that precipitation will generally be snow for inland areas. Surface temperatures will be warm enough that accumulations will be limited, and the snow may occasionally mix with some rain. Coastal areas will see a mix of rain and snow, or possibly all rain. The trough will push east of the area by Friday afternoon and a short-wave upper level ridge will nudge into the area. Some clouds and moisture will remain over the area as this ridge will be "dirty", but chances of precipitation are fairly low.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

An upper level shortwave continues to move through the interior part of Southwest Alaska this morning. In its wake, low level stratus and fog have blanketed the coastal areas including the Kuskokwim Delta coast and the Bristol Bay coast. Light snow showers are tapering off over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning, though snowfall is expected to continue along the foothills of the Alaska Range through this evening, with about 4 inches expected near Iliamna. The big challenge with this forecast has been precipitation type, especially over the Bristol Bay area. A mix of snow and rain will likely continue through the morning across interior parts of Bristol Bay. Farther south over the Alaska Peninsula, rain is expected to continue a bit longer before tapering off this afternoon as moisture advection ceases in the midlevels. By Friday, another system approaches Southwest bringing a second round of mixed precipitation. Of note, winds will also increase beginning Friday evening, especially along the coast. With colder air initially in place at the surface and warm air moving in aloft, the forecast challenge will once again be determining precipitation type with this event as it moves across the region Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves inland over the Kuskokwim Delta coast, cold northerly flow on the backside will return, forcing any lingering showers to fall as snow late Saturday into Sunday. Expect colder temperatures and onshore flow through the end of the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Weak low pressure in the northern Bering continues to dissipate and exit to the north through this evening. Another low approaches the Bering today, with the leading front approaching the western Aleutians this morning. Gusty southerly winds and rain will spread in along the Chain as the front reaches the central Bering by early Friday morning. The main change in the overnight forecast with this system was a slight increase in winds across the Bering as pockets of storm force winds are possible over the south-central Bering waters Friday afternoon into Saturday. As the low center moves into the northern Bering Saturday, cold northerly flow will fill in on the backside, bringing much cooler temperatures to the entirety of the Bering for Sunday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians . There is a high degree of confidence that widespread gale force winds will occur across the Bering on Saturday and continue into Sunday morning. Confidence is much lower with a weak low developing in the western Bering on Sunday, then moving into the eastern Bering on Monday, as guidance shows major discrepancies with the placement and track of this low. As of now, the winds associated with this weak low are expected to remain below gale force and the compact nature of the low means the core of strongest winds would affect a small area.

Gulf of Alaska . The most significant weather for the Gulf will be strong cold air advection across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf. The best estimate of timing is beginning sometime Saturday night and continuing through the day Sunday. While the current forecast advertises small craft advisory winds, there is good potential that these winds could reach gale force, with storm force gusts out of bays and passes along the Alaska Peninsula. These strong northwesterly gap winds will also increase the chance of freezing spray.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday).

There is consistency with the general synoptic pattern across the region on Sunday with an upper low over the Seward Peninsula and an upper ridge over the eastern portion of the Alaskan mainland near the AlCan border. This means temperatures will be generally cooler to the west and warmer to the east. Forecast confidence decreases into Monday as guidance shows a higher degree of variation in the placement of the upper low as well as the placement of the upper trough associated with this low. This is significant because this means our confidence is lower in where precipitation will occur and how intense the precipitation will be across the Alaskan mainland. One area of consistency is that due to the strong cold air advection expected with this trough, the precipitation type will most likely be snow. Guidance shows a more consistent synoptic set up across the area on Tuesday with an upper trough over the Alaskan mainland while an upper ridge is present across the Bering/Aleutians. Due to this, the coldest temperatures are expected across Southcentral on Tuesday. Confidence then becomes very low on Wednesday as guidance shows a very high degree of variation between the upper level synoptic pattern which will then influence the surface synoptic pattern.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 165 170 173 174 176 177 178 179 411 412 414. Storm Warning 175 413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . LTB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 22 mi101 min Calm G 1 31°F 39°F1026.1 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 72 mi101 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 26°F 42°F1027.1 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 77 mi93 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 36°F 39°F2 ft1026.4 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Cordova, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK10 mi30 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy21°F17°F85%1026.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PACV

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3SW3W3W5W7W64W6W6W5W3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS5SW3W6SW5S5S5S4S4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska
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Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:59 AM AKDT     5.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM AKDT     8.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:28 PM AKDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:48 PM AKDT     7.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.365.75.65.96.67.58.18.68.88.57.66.44.93.52.41.81.92.63.64.96.27.27.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.