Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, AK

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 4:55AMSunset 11:16PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:24 AM AKDT (09:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 347 Pm Akdt Wed Jul 17 2019
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W wind 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Mon..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK
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location: 60.38, -145.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 180047
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
447 pm akdt Wed jul 17 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The large upper level low which affected southern alaska over the
past several days continues to exit eastward across the eastern
gulf and into southeast alaska. Offshore flow has developed on the
back side of the low, leading to warming temperatures. Locally
gusty winds can be found in the usual places (seward whittier).

With high pressure upstream over the bering sea, there are also
some gusty westerly winds along the south side of the alaska
peninsula and across the western gulf kodiak island. Some short-
waves are embedded in the flow across southern alaska. Over
southwest alaska, this is producing fairly widespread clouds
and light rain showers. Southcentral alaska, on the other hand,
started out the day mostly clear. With greater low level
instability in place, these short-waves are aiding in convective
initiation, especially along inland mountain ranges.

Meanwhile, conditions are quite benign across the bering sea and
aleutians under the influence of high pressure. Satellite imagery
shows widespread low clouds and patchy fog across nearly the
entire region. Onshore flow along the southwest alaska coast has
advected low clouds onshore across the kuskokwim delta.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement with evolution of large scale
features. The main forecast challenge over the next few days will
be details of convective initiation and propagation as storm
motion changes a little bit each day.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. With northerly
flow through much of the atmosphere today, some of the showers and
thunderstorms which form inland will track southward toward
northern cook inlet. However, based on a slight northeast
component aloft (and track of upper short-waves) it looks like
most (if not all) of the convection coming from the mat-su will
remain west of the airport. Thus, only expect some higher level
clouds to move over the terminal. Storm motion on Thursday looks
much lighter, and begins to reverse in the upper levels during the
afternoon. Therefore, any convection which forms will be over the
chugach mountains.

Fire weather
The thermal trough and diurnal convection will be focused over
southcentral the next few days. Storm motion will change each day,
affecting the preferred areas for showers and thunderstorms. For
this afternoon and evening, storms will form in the western copper
river basin and along the talkeetna mountains and track
southwestward across the mat-su. Secondarily, there could be some
storms on the west side of the alaska and aleutian ranges, though
extensive cloud cover to start the day will limit activity.

On Thursday, a col will set up over southcentral, resulting in
very weak storm motion. While it does look like the warmest and
most unstable day of the next three, this should keep the bulk of
the convection confined to along and near the mountains.

There is a bit more uncertainty on Friday with the position and
strength of an upper level ridge nosing into the area. The
stronger solutions would put a cap on some convection and limit
areal coverage. There is better agreement on southwest steering
motion developing, which would takes storms to the northeast off
the mountains, with dry conditions west of mountains.

Meanwhile, after today more stable air along the southwest alaska
coast will spread inland. These stable conditions and cool
temperatures will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level low in the gulf of alaska continues to move east
while upper level troughs associated with this system rotate from
northeast to southwest across the southern mainland this evening
and likely again Thursday afternoon and evening. Moisture moving
across the southern mainland coupled with these upper level
disturbances will enhance the convective instability resulting in
thunderstorms this evening and likely again Thursday afternoon and
evening. The thunderstorms will be mostly confined to the
interior areas including the talkeetna mountains, matanuska and
susitna valleys, and the copper river basin. The mid and upper
level flow will be from the northeast, thus thunderstorms that
develop along the talkeetna mountains will drift over the southern
susitna valley this evening. The flow becomes much weaker
Thursday and therefore any thunderstorms that do develop will
generally remain stationary. The degree of instability and
placement differs amongst the models, thus nailing down precisely
where to expect the thunderstorms will be the challenge for the
next couple of day. What the models are in general agreement with,
is that the atmosphere across the southern mainland will be
unstable and capable of producing thunderstorms.

The offshore flow will continue through Thursday, allowing
temperatures at inland surface locations to warm into the upper
70s to low 80s. Coastal locations along the north gulf coast will
be cooler, however, the offshore flow will inhibit the typical sea
breeze, thus, locations along the coast will still see warmer
than normal temperatures. Friday the flow becomes weak and
eventually southerly, thus afternoon sea breezes should develop
keeping coastal locations cooler.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
As the low loses its influence over the southwest, the ridge
building in over the west becomes the dominating feature over the
next few days. The main weather feature for this today through
tonight is the convective potential stretching from the alaska
range to bristol bay. Thunderstorms will continue over the bristol
bay area this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms have been
observed moving south from near dillingham to king salmon.

Things will quiet down a bit in terms of thunderstorms over the
next two days as the ridge continues to push over across southwest
alaska. Cloud cover will likely increase over the region, lowering
the temperatures by a few degrees. Patchy fog could make its
return in the overnight and morning hours, especially along
coastal areas. Confidence is still low in how far inland the fog
could travel.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Winds were the main focus for the forecast over the next few days
for gap winds south of the eastern aleutians, alaska peninsula
and also throughout bristol bay. Winds were increased to keep
small craft advisory criteria through these zones as the flow
will be in a more favorable pattern to support stronger winds
through Friday. Persistent stratus and patchy fog is the other
forecast concern over the next few days as the bering and
aleutians continue to see stable conditions beneath the ridge.

Marine (days 3 through 5; Friday evening through Sunday)
Generally light westerlies are expected across the bering this
weekend. Winds will likewise be light and variable over the
western aleutians near high pressure. Gusty northwesterlies are
likely west of unalaska, particularly in bays and passes, though
sustained gales are not expected. Waves should remain at or below
7 feet.

Light and variable winds and low seas are expected across the
gulf.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7; Saturday through Tuesday)
There is a noticeable difference in the long-range models from
yesterday. The strong ridge as indicated over southcentral the
past several runs now looks to be more suppressed, positively
tilted and slightly further west. This will impact the forecast in
that if the current solution verifies it will not be as warm.

Also, the position of the upper ridge will determine storm motion
with regards to any convection that develops along the mountains.

The general consensus at this time is not to buy in to the
present solution too quickly. Model agreement continues to degrade
thereafter with the GFS showing a much stronger upper low in the
gulf compared with the european model. Thus, overall confidence in
the long term forecast remains low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Sa
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Ap


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 22 mi55 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 57°F1002.8 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 72 mi55 min SSE 1 G 1.9 53°F 52°F1003.6 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 77 mi35 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 59°F2 ft1002.6 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Cordova, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK10 mi32 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F46°F86%1002.6 hPa

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmE3Calm33366W54SW6S5S5S3E3CalmCalmE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3N4NE3E5SE11E5NE5E6CalmE3SE3CalmW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE4NE4CalmCalmCalmE4CalmNE3E3E4NE4E4NE5E45CalmSE5N5CalmNE3NE4CalmNE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska
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Eyak River entrance
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Thu -- 02:52 AM AKDT     11.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:11 AM AKDT     -1.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:07 PM AKDT     9.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:12 PM AKDT     3.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:50 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.99.110.811.310.79.26.94.21.5-0.6-1.5-0.91.23.96.68.69.49.18.26.75.13.733.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.