Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:42AMSunset 6:47PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 2:26 PM AKDT (22:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 346 Am Akdt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK
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location: 60.38, -145.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 161251
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
451 am akdt Wed oct 16 2019

Analysis and upper levels
An estimated 970 mb storm force low is centered just south of the
pribilofs this morning while its associated front approaches the
southwest coast. This low has brought gusty westerly winds to the
aleutians with the strongest winds nearing hurricane force on the
south side of the low. On the backside of the low, cold air is
filling in over the bering. This instability has produced a few
thunderstorms over the far western bering overnight.

Shifting eastward, a low over the gulf continues to lift several
shortwaves over southcentral. This has produced showers evident on
radar this morning along the northern gulf coast and kenai
peninsula.

Model discussion
Models have been in fairly good agreement regarding the short-
term synoptic pattern, and point to broad upper level cyclonic
flow over most of the southern mainland. However, there is much
less agreement on the tracks and locations of both the bering low
and the gulf low for later this week. By Thursday morning, the
bering low weakens and traverses the alaska peninsula, arriving
in the western gulf. Meanwhile the low currently in the gulf lifts
northward, and models have had a hard time resolving the position
of the low center.

Aviation
Panc... Initially,VFR conditions and light winds are expected
today. Conditions may drop to MVFR with some snow showers nearby.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Model consensus is relatively poor at the surface as a broad
upper level cyclonic flow sets up over the gulf. Surface low
center positions vary considerably across the gulf and make for a
challenging forecast. However, we can draw a few nuggets out of
the mire. It looks like easterly winds should increase across the
northern gulf and westerly gales should increase over the southern
gulf through Thursday. Precipitation overall will not be very
organized but will likely favor the northern gulf and western
gulf in general with limited chances inland. The exception would
be light overrunning snow flurries spreading across the anchorage
bowl matanuska valley this morning. Precipitation should remain
fairly light through this afternoon and will likely become mixed
with rain. Otherwise, precipitation should remain fairly spotty
inland.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
On satellite imagery the remnants of hagibis are discernible and
extend from southwest alaska to siberia. Pockets of light
precipitation have been detected west of the bethel radar (pabc)
and near the king salmon radar (pakc). All the while, a second
front continues to march towards the western alaskan coast. The
leading edge of the next precipitation shield will move into
goodnews bay and bristol bay this afternoon and slowly push
eastward. Thursday the low will dive southeast of the akpen taking
the moisture advection with it.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
An unsettled pattern is on deck for this forecast period. On
satellite imagery there is an occluded front bisecting the bering.

This new low has been convective with the weather observer at
eareckson air station in shemya reporting CB (cumulus nimbus)
yesterday and lightning strikes detected last night north of attu
island. The models indicate that the instability will continue as
this system moves eastward. Also impressive with this system are
the gradient force winds. Expect widespread sustained storm force
winds and the potential for hurricane force winds in the pribilof
islands today. Rough seas will accompany this low. There
continues to be multiple shortwaves embedded in the upper level
low which encompasses the entire bering. Expect another shot of
energy from kamchatka to move into the western bering as the
forecast period unfolds.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Westerly gales along the coastal waters near the eastern
aleutians and alaska peninsula will diminish gradually Thursday
through Thursday night with winds across the bering and aleutians
expected for the most part to remain below gales through Friday
and Saturday. There are however, a couple of smaller troughs
moving through the broader troughing on Friday and Saturday that
do bear watching with the potential to produce brief periods of
localized stronger winds in the central and eastern aleutians as
they spin up.

For the gulf, westerly winds near gale force are possible at times
in the southern gulf Thursday and Friday as small troughs rotate
through the broader westerly flow but otherwise winds are expected
to remain below gales through Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
By Friday, upper level troughing extending from a broad vertically
stacked low over the bering will stretch east across much of
mainland alaska, extending to a second vertically stacked low in
the central gulf. A cut off upper level low over the bristol bay
area embedded in the broader troughing will lift to the northwest
over the kuskowim delta Friday night and Saturday while the low in
the gulf moves slowly north.

A developing north pacific frontal system located well to the
south of the alaska peninsula Friday night will track to the
northeast across the southern gulf Saturday to reach the southeast
alaska panhandle Sunday. In response, the upper low in the
central bering will rotate southeastward over the eastern
aleutians on Sunday before turning into a open trough and
continuing to the east just south of the alaska peninsula. Also
caught up in the same rotation, the upper low over the kuskowim
delta will swing to the northwest, moving offshore Sunday and then
turning south to swing by st matthew island and the pribilofs
Sunday night and Monday before becoming quasi-stationary over the
eastern bering offshore of the kuskokwim delta through midweek.

The next potentially rather strong low will track in from the
west, crossing the north pacific well to the south of the western
aleutians Sunday night and then beginning to turn to the
northeast Monday and Monday night while it is south of the
central and eastern aleutians. While all the models are in good
agreement with the potential for this to be a powerful storm and
in fair agreement regarding the speed of its eastward progress,
there are very large differences regarding its north to south
position. The 12z GFS has the furthest south track, keeping the
low well clear of the aleutians as it rapidly deepens. Both the
ecmwf and the canadian models curve the low to the northeast more
rapidly, bringing it just south of the western alaska peninsula
by Tuesday morning while the GFS solution's low remains roughly
350 miles further south. The ECMWF and canadian models both then
bring low into bristol bay while the GFS tracks the low into the
gulf for Wednesday and Thursday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning: 195.

Marine... Storm warning: 155, 165, 170-172, 179, 412, 414.

Gale warning: 132, 150, 160, 173-178, 180, 352, 411, 413.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ko
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pjs
marine long term... Jr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 22 mi57 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 45°F 48°F986.1 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 72 mi57 min ESE 7 G 8 39°F 50°F988.4 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 77 mi37 min SE 14 G 16 46°F 51°F4 ft985.8 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for Cordova, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK10 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F37°F69%986.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PACV

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4CalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW3S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmNW3NW5N4
2 days agoCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska
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Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:45 AM AKDT     10.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:15 AM AKDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:34 PM AKDT     11.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:47 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:47 PM AKDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.55.58.29.910.49.78.36.44.52.922.54.77.51011.511.710.78.96.53.91.60-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.