.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Discussion:

The occluded upper low has lifted up towards the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region this afternoon with associated frontal boundary pushing northeastwards across interior Alaska. More widespread precipitation has transitioned over to more showery conditions as the 500 mb low center and cooler temperatures aloft have steepened lapse rates over the Kuskokwim Delta. Showers should diminish from southwest to northeast this evening as the upper low continues to track inland tonight. Weak shortwave ridging moving in behind this system will allow for continued onshore flow, and possibly resulting in some areas of fog developing by Saturday morning.

Another disturbance is currently moving across the central Aleutians bringing moderate to heavy rain, some gusty winds, and low ceilings.
This system is starting to weaken as cloud tops are gradually warming, and will push east of the southern AKPen by Saturday morning. However, several more disturbances will quickly move in on nearly zonal flow behind the aforementioned system keeping the Aleutians and Southwest in an unsettled pattern. Will likely see a brief lull in rain and maybe see some peeks of sun between systems.
More widespread rainfall returns to Southwest Sunday morning and into early next workweek with a Bering low pushing towards the Kuskokwim Delta.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday to Friday)...

An upper level trough digging across Southwest Alaska Monday will continue to push east through late Monday into Tuesday. This feature, while slightly different with each forecast model, looks to bring widespread rain to Southwest Alaska late Sunday through Monday and to Southcentral Alaska early Monday through early Tuesday.

Unsettled conditions with periods of showers are then expected to persist for Southern Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level low remains situated over mainland Alaska. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are possible across the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday as the low departs to the east over the Northern Gulf and a weak transient surface high builds in over the central Aleutians. Another system emerges from the North Pacific and impacts the Aleutians with periods of rain on Wednesday. Overall, temperatures will remain below average for the long term period with persistent cloud cover and rain.

-DD

AVIATION

PANC...Showers will linger through the evening hours as a series of shortwaves moves through the region. Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening with the occasional and brief MVFR period in any lingering showers. VFR conditions will then return as the primary trough axis crosses through the area between 00Z and 06Z tonight. Gusty south winds will prevail for much of the afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish by 08z tonight.

CCC