Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kalifornsky, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS

(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure builds in the Bering Sea and trough persist in the Eastern Aleutians through mid-week.

2) Cold Weather Advisory remains for the Southwest Alaska Mainland through mid-week.

Discussion:

1) High pressure builds in the Bering Sea and trough persist in the Eastern Aleutians through mid-week.

High pressure builds in the Western Aleutians through mid-week. It will remain fairly stationary over the Western Aleutians through this evening then shift more westward Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough over the eastern Bering Sea area (the Pribilofs south to the Central Aleutians) persists through mid-week. Rising temperatures to Shemya and continued northerly winds and multiple shortwave to the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula through mid- week is the result. The first of the early week shortwaves dives southward from the Bering Strait bringing scattered snow showers from Unalaska Bay to Nelson Lagoon this afternoon into this evening. Overnight, the chance of snow showers moves slightly west of Unalaska Bay as the high shifts westward. Wind gusts through this evening in the passes remain gusty ranging from 35 to 55 mph.
After a more tranquil day Tuesday, another round of organized snow showers move around the Bering Sea High and then southward through the Aleutians and AK Pen Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, snowfall accumulations in the mid-week snow will be around an inch though periods blowing snow and reduced visibility are expected.

2) Cold Weather Advisory remains for the Southwest Alaska Mainland through mid-week.

Downstream from the ridge, cold northerly flow continues to drag Arctic air south across Southwest and into the AKPen, keeping temperatures well below average for the next several days. A Cold Weather Advisory continues through Wednesday in this area because wind chills dip as low as -25 through Wednesday morning in the AK Pen. A Cold Weather Advisory also remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta, where wind chills will dip as low as -40 once again tonight into Monday morning.

-DJ/AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure persists across the Bering Sea through Saturday afternoon when an upper level low brings snow showers to the western mainland. Strong northwesterly flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures through next week.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist through much of the TAF period. Ceilings, although VFR in nature, will hover around the 5,000 foot mark this morning, with a scattered deck around 3,000 feet, before lifting more by late morning. Winds may increase to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon through this evening in association with weak cold air advection across the area from the north.