Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whittier, AK

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK

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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 291221 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 421 AM AKDT Mon May 29 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

An upper level low continues to approach near the north Gulf coast, with weak upper level waves rotating around it to the north of the center. These weak waves are bringing scattered rain showers to portions of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is pushing south from the Bering Strait, bringing with it an unseasonably cold air mass to the northern Bering Sea and northwestern Alaska. Further out west, weak high pressure is leading mostly quiet weather with areas of low marine stratus.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Models remain in fair agreement with the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the surface and in the upper levels. The main challenge continues to be resolving small scale local effects.

AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions for this TAF period. A southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind will gust up to 25 kts at times beginning around 29/23Z.



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday Night)...

A broad upper level trough continues to affect southcentral, for continued unsettled weather and cooler than normal temperatures.
A weak surface low currently sits at the mouth of Prince William Sound and will weaken over the course of the day as much of the system's upper level support diverts away from this low. This low will still maintain showers along the southern coastline and area mountain ranges; however, as the day progresses, areas along the Cook Inlet should see a respite in cloud cover as some sunshine pokes through under a southeasterly flow. Northwest to southeasterly drainages will see gap winds increase this afternoon as the aforementioned surface low lingers along the coastline; the most pronounced of which will be the Turnagain Arm wind.

Towards the north along the ALCAN, an easterly wave will begin to protrude across the border, brining the continuation of shower activity across the Alaska Range, Copper River Basin and Chugach Mountains, while prolonging today's drainage winds into Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, this easterly wave will stall out and lose energy as another low over the Bering Sea drops south across the AKPen, and swings across the Gulf late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
While winds will generally weaken across the region, with most of the upper trough's energy focused in the Gulf, precipitation chances increase once again, while temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Longwave trough pattern dominates much of Southern Alaska and portions of the Bering Sea/Aleutians. A low dropping south is set to drag a colder than normal airmass southwards over the Southwest Mainland and across the eastern Bering Sea and Southern Alaska Peninsula late tonight through Wednesday. Cloudy skies will continue, with dropping temperatures and light precipitation.
Periods of light snow is possible across the Kuskokwim Delta, mostly from Bethel west, early Tuesday morning, as well as along higher elevations elsewhere across Southwest. Things should begin to dry out later Tuesday afternoon once the low moves into the North Pacific. Low marine stratus will persist across the central/western Bering Sea under the influence of the high pressure ridge. Further west, a Kamchatka front moves over the Western Aleutians Wednesday morning, bringing rounds of precipitation with it.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

There is good ensemble agreement that an upper level ridge will nose westward from Yukon Territory to over the central Alaskan interior while an Aleutian low remains over the eastern Aleutians.
Forecast confidence however is lower than average due to Southcentral being on the periphery of where the Aleutian low meets the upper level ridge. The current projection hints at the odds showing a slight tilt towards cooler than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. However, if the ridge extends farther southwestward, that would result in Southcentral experiencing warmer and drier conditions.

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Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska

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