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PKZ724 Northwest Prince William Sound- 356 Pm Akst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday...
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Thu night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri and Fri night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 300202 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 502 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

The forecast is on track through Thursday morning as a low and its front move into the north Gulf coast. The biggest changes have occurred primarily over the marine areas, where a shift in the positioning of the low center have led to higher forecast winds near Kodiak Island and a quicker diminishing of winds near Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Otherwise, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Turnagain Pass through tonight due to heavy snow.
Forecast confidence is lower from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon due to persistent model differences; however, the outlook is for more benign conditions across Southcentral Mainland as an incoming low and its front remain further south, with impacts expected mainly for Kodiak Island and the Gulf of Alaska.

From now through tomorrow, expect continued precipitation along the north Gulf coast as a low near Kodiak Island pushes its front onshore. Snotel sites estimate that around 8-12 inches of snow have fallen over the Eastern Kenai Peninsula mountains since the start of the storm. The heaviest snow rates for this area are expected from now through late this evening, with radar confirming heavier precipitation moving towards Eastern Kenai Peninsula from the Gulf. While precipitation will linger through the overnight hours and into Thursday, snow rates should be much lower than they are right now. The biggest uncertainties in the near-term relate to snow amounts in Whittier and along Turnagain Arm, where snow is currently mixing with rain while surface temperatures remain above freezing at around 35 degrees. Have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast, but if colder air stays in place, these areas could see higher snow amounts.

As we head through Thursday, the low occludes and moves inland near Seward. Models have come into better agreement, leading to higher forecast confidence through early Thursday afternoon. A shift towards southerly, instead of easterly, upper level flow will support higher precipitation rates for Eastern Prince William Sound from late Thursday morning through the afternoon due to upslope enhancement. As the low center moves further inland, favorable dynamics will likely lead to a short period of snow for all but Matanuska Valley and the Copper River Basin.
However, snow amounts will remain on the lower end, with likely no more than an inch for all but Susitna Valley.

By Thursday afternoon, forecast confidence diminishes regarding a triple point low that develops off a complex, Bering Sea low's front. Model agreement has been abysmal with this system, with little run-to-run consistency among operational model runs and major differences between the different global model ensembles.
Overall, the two most likely scenarios are either (1) the low curves up the Gulf and towards Southcentral Alaska as it occludes, or (2) the low moves east-west across the southern Gulf. This forecast package leans more towards the first scenario, though the newest model data seems to be favoring the second scenario more.
We'll continue to refine the forecast with the latest data, but current thinking is that--with the low remaining decently far south in either scenario--there will be limited impacts to much of Southcentral Alaska. Marine areas will likely see winds to gale force, and Kodiak Island could see light precipitation over the course of about a day. There might be some light precipitation along Prince William Sound, but otherwise the main story will likely be colder, more seasonable temperatures and the potential for gusty outflow winds.

-KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...

Intermittent light snow will continue over interior Southwest through Friday. Fog may develop along the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay where conditions will clear and cool tonight.
Otherwise, mostly overcast and seasonal temperatures will set in through the weekend, with increasing chances for coastal snow showers as the trough over the Bering slides east.

For the Bering and Aleutians, a western Bering low has sent an occluded front through the Aleutians, with strong winds and a rapid transition from southeasterly to westerly at the frontal passage. Widespread precipitation will be mostly rain although periods of a rain/snow mix are possible for the eastern Aleutians and AKPen ahead of the front. The northern portion of the occlusion will keep a broad swath of easterly gales north of the chain, whereas a powerful push of colder air south of the low will bring storm force winds south of the Western Aleutians tonight and tomorrow, with widespread high end gales for the central Aleutians through Thursday evening. There remains low confidence on individual lows developing within the broad occluded low complex, and mesolows may lead to locally higher winds (>50 kts) should they develop along the front. By late Friday and into Saturday the parent low in the western Bering will drop south and east, bringing widespread northerlies and snow showers by the weekend.

-CJ/DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Sunday through Wednesday

A broad upper level trough extends across the Bering into the Gulf of Alaska for Sunday. A North Pacific low merges with a low in the Eastern Bering through Tuesday, which continues into the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday. Widespread precipitation with periods of locally heavier precipitation spreads across the Gulf Monday, extending inland through Wednesday. Large areas of gale force winds develop along the Alaska Peninsula and move over the Gulf beginning Monday. Chances of higher surf along the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula Monday through the forecast period. High end gales force gap winds around Kodiak Island expected Monday through Wednesday, diminishing, but linger along the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday.

A short wave ridge pushes across the Bering for Sunday, briefly breaking up the trough, but flattening out through Wednesday.
Further west, another closed low exits the Russian Far East sets up its Eastward push. Gusty winds approaching gale force moves into the Western Aleutians and Bering.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Thursday afternoon.
Northerly winds will increase this afternoon and continue through the evening before diminishing some overnight.

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Applegate Island
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Wed -- 02:42 AM AKST     11.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 AM AKST     4.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:28 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:40 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:51 PM AKST     13.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:52 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:20 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:46 PM AKST     -1.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Applegate Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Culross Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:28 AM AKST     11.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:54 AM AKST     4.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:29 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:37 PM AKST     13.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:43 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:18 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:39 PM AKST     -1.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska, Tide feet

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