Monday, September28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 7:41PM Monday September 28, 2020 4:42 PM AKDT (00:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:42PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 407 Pm Akdt Mon Sep 28 2020
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Wed and Wed night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 281332 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 532 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A high amplitude trough extends from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Southeast Alaska with the jet center reaching as far south as 38N. A well defined low can be seen on water vapor imagery near the base of the trough at 45N 165W. This system is expected to become coupled with the jet later today and move north towards the AOR. This will continue the trend of above average temperatures due to warm air advection into Southcentral.

The low center from the storm force low that impacted the Gulf on Sunday can be seen on radar and satellite moving onshore this morning between Cordova and Yakutat. A triple point low has formed on the western edge of the storms occluded front with the low center now over Bristol Bay. This is helping to bring rain to the Aleutian Range, Kodiak Island, and the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula. Over the Bering, northerly flow is bringing in low stratus and cooler temperatures through Bering Strait as a front approaches Shemya from the west.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Model agreement has improved in the overnight runs in regards to the storm force low impacting the AOR on Tuesday. There are some slight differences in whether there is a single closed low or multiple low centers revolving around one another. Regardless, the global models all show a minimum central pressure between 970 mb and 975 mb. The track of the storm and arrival time of the warm front to Kodiak Island and the AKPEN remain in good agreement.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. A Turnagain Arm wind is expected to develop tonight and peak in intensity around midnight. MVFR ceilings and rain are possible as a low pressure system moves north of the terminal overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday Night) .

The last remnants of the surface low that produced hurricane force gusts at Middleton Island yesterday morning is dissipating and transferring its energy westward and inland this morning. An upper level front is following behind the low. As the front and upper level trough over mainland Alaska shift west, so too will the low bring some Gulf moisture over the mountains and into the Cook Inlet region. This westward shift is mostly due to a large upper level low over the North Pacific near 45N pushing eastward into a large, strong upper ridge over the western US and Canada. This will amplify the ridge northwestward, which will push the front northwestward into Southcentral. Sensibly, this means the rain over the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound will shift northwestward, and rain will return to the Cook Inlet region. There has been quite a bit of variability as to when this will occur, with the latest models suggesting that happens this afternoon into this evening, rather than during the overnight. Thus, the most substantive change to the forecast this morning is to increase the chances of rain for this evening into the first half of the overnight tonight for all of the Cook Inlet Region. Once the front and surface low shift over to Bristol Bay tonight, southeasterly winds will return to the mountains through Turnagain Arm and the Knik River Valley. Thus, the winds will increase, and in the case of the former, will move into south and west Anchorage tonight. Thus, it will be both windy and rainy tonight.

On Tuesday, as the low over Bristol Bay shifts south and gets absorbed into the next low, most areas of inland Southcentral will enjoy a partly cloudy day, while some shower activity persists along the mountains. This will be a brief break in the weather action for the area. On Tuesday afternoon and evening, the leading front associated with another strong low over the North Pacific will move northwestward into the Gulf. Rainfall associated with the front will approach Kodiak late in the day Tuesday, but the northeasterly flow ahead of the front will bring another round of heavy rain and strong northeasterly to easterly wind to Kodiak. Most of the energy with the front will impact Kodiak and then quickly shift west to the AKPEN Tuesday night.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the leading front will persist over the Gulf and move north into the coast through the day. This front will have a connection to deep tropical moisture, so it too will lead to the next round of heavy rain impacting much of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, with Whittier likely being the proud recipient of several inches of rain from this front. The heaviest rain in Whittier will be midday into the afternoon. The strong easterly flow with the front should allow for a distinct downslope hole in the precipitation, so little if any rain is expected west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. It will also mean another ramp-up in the winds through Turnagain Arm and higher elevations. Periodic upper level waves, particularly one expected to track northwestward across Southcentral Wednesday night may briefly allow the rain to overcome the downslope, especially if the flow can turn more southerly.

Temperature-wise, the area will remain in unseasonably warm air masses for the next few days overall, though one exception will be during the day Tuesday, which despite the expectation of the most sunshine being on that day, the cooler air mass should largely offset it. Thus, the arrival of the winter snowpack that stays until the Spring on the higher elevations of the Chugach will continue to be delayed.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 3).

Northeasterly flow aloft, which is a drying flow, will bring much of Southwest Alaska some sunshine and dry conditions to start the new work week with above normal temperatures for daytime highs. Many areas will be between 45-50 degrees Fahrenheit with the mountains about 5 degrees cooler (40-45F). For tonight some weak upper level shortwaves are expected to cross the Alaska Range. As a result, some isolated rain shower activity is expected especially over the Alaska Range and the Kuskokwim Mountains tonight into Tuesday evening. However, the flow aloft may be just enough that a few of these make it off the mountains and affect the Bristol Bay, Middle Kuskokwim Valley tonight through Tuesday afternoon. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta's best chance to see a brief shower will be late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening.

A weak upper level ridge is expected to build in briefly across Southwest moving from southeast to northwest beginning Tuesday morning. The ridge will be narrow in nature, therefore any clearing that occurs Tuesday will be brief before the next system begins to move in with the increasing clouds. Bristol Bay and the eastern Middle Kuskokwim Valley will have the best chance Tuesday to see a good amount of sunshine. Areas further west will take longer to clear out with the best clearing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before clouds increase quickly Wednesday morning. However, peeks of sunshine are still expected Tuesday.

Attention then turns to the next system that will affect the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. This system is already developing over the North Pacific leading to above average confidence for this system. A storm force low is expected with hurricane force wind gusts to the south of the AKPEN and north of Chirikof Island Tuesday night into Wednesday with storm force gusts for Bristol Bay. Wave heights will also be on the rise south of the AKPEN with anywhere between 20-25 ft seas expected with upwards of 30+ feet at the southern Shelikof Strait entrance. Wave heights in Bristol Bay will be between 8-12 ft. Periods of rain will also accompany the system with a general 0.5-1" rainfall amounts, locally higher for the south facing areas of the AKPEN. As the system comes northwestward the flow will be cross barrier for much of Southwest leading to downsloping for areas downwind of the Alaska Range (i.e. King Salmon, Igiugig, and Levelock). Dillingham is further west and has a better chance to see heavier rainfall from this system with up to a 0.5" possible there with King Salmon less than 0.25". Bethel, which is downwind of the Kuskokwim Mountains in this type of setup, is expected to see a downslope component as well. The windward facing slopes will experience more rain than the leeward sides. Breezy conditions will also be expected across much of Southwest Wednesday due to the tight pressure gradient that will be present across the area.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3).

Northerly flow will continue across much of the Bering again today with occasional rain showers. Cold air aloft flowing over the relatively warm water of the Bering Sea continues to provide an unstable environment resulting in cumulus clouds that occasionally grow enough to produce a shower, especially if a weak upper level shortwave passes over the area to help enhance the lift. Breezy conditions will continue again also due to the tight pressure gradient present which will begin to diminish this evening.

A frontal system will graze the western Aleutians and Pacific side marine zones with small craft winds and chance of rain this afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Weak high pressure moves in for Tuesday evening into early Wednesday before another weak system approaches Wednesday morning with another shot of rain and increasing winds.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a potent piece of upper level energy will move southward to the east of a building upper level ridge over the western Bering. At this time, it appears this will be nothing more than bringing an increase in clouds to the Pribilofs with a slight enhancement in shower activity along with a reinforcing shot of cool air.

Further southeast, our attention then turns to the next storm system that will be approaching the eastern Aleutians Tuesday night through Wednesday with storm force winds, increased wave heights and periods of rain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday).

A strong North Pacific low tracks over the Alaska Peninsula late Wed. The Gulf will have widespread gale force, with storm force winds across the Kodiak Island and western Gulf waters. These winds will diminish a bit Wednesday, but remain elevated. A new North Pacific low approaches the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday. There is uncertainty in the exact track and strength of this second storm, but it looks like it will affect the same areas. The current forecast will go with widespread gales for now, but storm force winds are possible Thursday afternoon through Thursday night from the western Gulf to Bristol Bay, likely spreading into the Bering Sea on Friday.

For the Bering and Aleutians, A North Pacific low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and dissipates in the Eastern Bering Thu. This will produce widespread small craft winds, with smaller areas of gale force winds likely. The second storm mentioned above has potential to bring much more widespread gales to the region by Thursday night/Friday, but confidence is low at this point in time.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday).

The pattern will become even more amplified as the upper trough over the eastern Bering/Aleutians deepens and the upper ridge over the west coast of North America builds. The tilt of the upper trough will change from positive to negative which will help support cyclogenesis along the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN on Wednesday as a 972 mb low is expected to strengthen south of the AKPEN on Wednesday and move northwestward into the eastern Bering. As this low moves northwestward into the Bering it will gradually weaken due to moving farther away from the core of the jet. The low then will remain stalled in the eastern Bering through Sunday. One major impact of the orientation of this jet is a good potential for strong Turnagain Arm winds during this period as the core of the jet is over Southcentral Alaska on Wednesday (favorable for strong Turnagain Arm winds). Moreover, the northwestward motion of this low into the eastern Bering will enhance the pressure gradients across Turnagain Arm and cause these strong winds to be prolonged. This system will also produce heavy rain across Kodiak and along the windward (south-east facing) side of the Kenai Mountains. The highest rainfall amounts will be over Kodiak and along the southern Kenai Peninsula.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CJ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . JPW SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . MV MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/BG/SEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 14 mi53 min ESE 18 G 19 51°F 50°F1 ft1007.4 hPa (+4.3)48°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi43 min SE 21 G 24 1010.2 hPa (+4.5)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi61 min 55°F1006 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK37 mi49 minESE 8 G 248.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F83%1006.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalm--SE543SE55SE6SE9
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1 day agoSE16
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----6W4SW3W3--4Calm
2 days agoE46E6E6E5E65E5--E4E7E7E7E10E8--E7----3--E8
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--E17
G31

Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska
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Applegate Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM AKDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:42 PM AKDT     11.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 PM AKDT     3.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:41 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.210.38.66.33.81.911.32.74.97.49.510.81110.28.66.54.53.43.44.46.38.510.4

Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska
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Culross Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:09 AM AKDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:28 PM AKDT     11.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 PM AKDT     3.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:42 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.310.28.463.51.711.435.481011.111.110.18.36.24.33.33.44.76.89.110.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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