Monday, June14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 11:43PM Monday June 14, 2021 7:10 PM AKDT (03:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 358 Pm Akdt Mon Jun 14 2021
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt near whittier in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Wed and Wed night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 150052 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 452 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A very similar pattern has emerged to last week. Many upper-level low centers within a broader trough encompass the state, with ridging between them all. The upper jet remains well south of the Aleutians, feeding into a mature system spinning over the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula. That system is the main synoptic feature, with a front wrapping around, eventually dropping southward all the way to the subtropics. A much broader and weaker circulation exists over the eastern Gulf/northeastern Pacific, with several embedded disturbances. A ridge aloft extends from the Interior southward, connecting with the ridging ahead of the Aleutian system. The last upper low sits over the Gulf of Anadyr and links up with the upper low to the south.

Over Southcentral Alaska, so far a bluebird day. A weak cumulus field is popping over the Copper River Basin, extending across the Talkeetnas. Sea breezes have developed along most coastal locations along with broader up Inlet flow. Currently the marine layer is lurking just off the coast.

For the Southwest, the approaching front is bringing gusty southeasterly winds to mainly the coast, while the precipitation is becoming more spotty as the front falls apart.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The large scale synoptics are well agreed upon with the upper lows riding along the jet will combine with the existing Panhandle low to form a complex circulation in the Gulf of Alaska. There's also good agreement with retreating the closed high aloft to the north at the same time. The differences in models are in the small scale features that will exist between the upper high/low. The easterly wave pattern is one that is not handled well by models at all, owing to the differences between the warmer/drier inland regime and the cooler/wetter marine regime. Individual shortwaves in the models usually have fairly big errors, both temporally and spatially. Uncertainty is much greater than normal, even in the 24-48 hour time frame.

As of this writing, there's already much disagreement on timing/amplitude for the first wave, currently progged to roll across Southcentral on Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A sea breeze will be the dominant player for the next 30 hours, shifting to a light up-Inlet flow during the overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Mon night through Thu) .

High pressure remains overhead with increasing easterly wave activity expected through the forecast period. Tuesday will be another hot and dry day for most of the region with the typical sea breezes establishing along the coast around midday. The potential for convective activity has increased since the last forecast package over inland areas due to an easterly shortwave rounding the southern periphery of the high around the time of peak heating.

On Wednesday the precipitation forecast becomes more uncertain due to a high degree of variability of easterly waves expected to move over Southcentral through Thursday afternoon. These features can be hard to resolve and each model paints a different picture on the speed and north/south position of each wave as they move overhead. Most areas will receive a wetting rain by Thursday with a mixture of clouds and sunshine. Southerly gap winds are also expected through the typically areas (Copper River Basin, Turnagain Arm and Knik River) Wednesday afternoon and evening as a coastal ridge builds. These should subside on Thursday as the pressure gradient weakens. High temperatures will decrease markedly from the highs earlier in the week, returning to average to slightly below average due to rain and increased cloud cover.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Steady rain and considerably warmer temperatures over Southwest Alaska and Kuskokwim Delta will persist through Tuesday morning. A lingering front over Southwest Alaska is responsible for the rainfall until it tapers off from the area by Tuesday afternoon. Warm southerly winds will become light and variable starting tonight at the lower Kuskokwim Valley before the rest of the region notices idle winds by Tuesday night, except for AKPEN. Rain will continue at AKPEN through at least Tuesday night as a result of the occluded front transitioned into a trough by Tuesday morning. A broad area of warmer diurnal temperatures between surface and 850 mb will scale westward and south of the Alaska Range starting Tuesday afternoon into Thursday, which highlights the unstoppable position of the mid to upper-level ridge.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

Steady winds and gusts along the bay and passes and elevated seas over much of the Aleutians will be closely monitored as two separate weather phenomena are responsible for these events. The first event is the mature upper-low south of the Aleutians and its occluded front over AKPEN. Noticeably very strong gusts were reported from across the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN today, but conditions should start improving by Tuesday afternoon as the low moves farther southeast of AKPEN. The next low from Northwest Pacific will reach the western Aleutians by tonight causing more light to moderate rain to spread across the western and central Aleutians through at least Tuesday night. All in all, unsettled weather will linger over the Aleutians the next couple days.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday).

High pressure remains over the Bering. Generally light winds across the Bering through Saturday. A North Pacific low intensifies and moves south of Cold Bay by Saturday. Confidence is uncertain. Its front extends from the Central Aleutians over the Alaska Peninsula through Friday and Saturday. The front across the Southern Gulf moves into the Northern Gulf by Saturday. Gusty winds less than gale force over the Western Gulf Thursday and Friday. A second front approaches the Southern Gulf by Saturday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday). Extended guidance is signaling a pattern change from the current upper level pattern. The easterly wave pattern which is now developing will give way to a more amplified upper flow pattern, with a strong north Pacific low leading the way toward the Alaska Peninsula by late week. The implication is that the whole upper longwave will shift over the Bering Sea/Northcentral Pacific while a ridge takes over eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska. Ultimately this evolution would lead to an atmospheric river impacting southern Alaska.

The beginning of the extended would likely be relatively benign as we shift the pattern but would quickly change to windier and wetter across most locations.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MTL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . CJ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CB MARINE/LONG TERM . MTL/MK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 13 mi81 min ESE 9.7 G 12 58°F 56°F1 ft1013.1 hPa (+0.0)52°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi41 min SSW 6 G 6 54°F 1014.6 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi59 min 53°F1012.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK37 mi18 minE 710.00 miFair64°F48°F56%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4--E3CalmCalm----------Calm--Calm--CalmCalm--------E6----E7
1 day ago------565--------5--5E6--E6--E7--------5--
2 days ago----------Calm--W4------CalmCalm----4--------E7------

Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska
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Applegate Island
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Mon -- 02:16 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:55 AM AKDT     11.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:57 AM AKDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM AKDT     9.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:58 PM AKDT     4.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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689.811.111.510.99.374.31.7-0.1-0.8024.36.58.29.19.28.57.35.94.84.3

Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska
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Culross Bay
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Mon -- 02:17 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:41 AM AKDT     11.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:20 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM AKDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:19 PM AKDT     9.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:51 PM AKDT     4.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.48.510.311.411.610.89.16.63.91.4-0.3-0.80.32.44.878.69.49.38.47.15.74.74.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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