Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday September 16, 2021 2:15 AM AKDT (10:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 420 Pm Akdt Wed Sep 15 2021
Tonight..E wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..E wind 15 kt becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Fri and Fri night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 160137 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 PM AKDT Wed Sep 15 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A broad upper-level trough embedded with multiple lows continues to stay in place over the Aleutians extending into the interior with an upper-level ridge positioned over the Alaska/Yukon border. Radar is showing returns of rain over the Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound as short waves propagate through the area. A 75 kt jet streak is located over the Kuskokwim Valley extending through Prince William Sound and along the Southeast coast and is supporting an upper-level low over the Kuskokwim Valley. Another jet streak at 80 kt is located south of Attu and is supporting an upper-level low northeast of the island. Northwesterly winds with gale-force gusts are wrapping around and underneath the low as it moves east. Satellite is showing low stratus blanketing the Aleutians, Bering, and Southwest Alaska with higher level clouds shifting east over the Alaska Peninsula, the Gulf, and across interior locations of Southcentral.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement. However, model spread begins to grow with the placement of lows that form along a front located in the Bering and a front located in the Gulf. The NAM solution is moving these lows faster and located more east, whereas the GFS has these lows moving slower and placed more west. The main forecast challenge for the short term will be the location and timing of precipitation as the lows and associated shortwaves evolve. Overall, forecast confidence is increasing for the short term and average for the long term.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will persist with an occasional shower developing in the area this afternoon. The Turnagain Arm wind will persist and increase throughout the day over the terminal, then gradually decrease by Thursday evening before turning northerly by early Thursday morning as down inlet flow develops. A steadier rain is possible later this evening, lingering into early morning Thursday. However, any rain over the complex is not expected to reduce ceilings or visibility below VFR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Saturday afternoon) .

The unsettled weather pattern that has been impacting Southcentral for the last few days remains in place. A front associated with a low pressure center in the Bering is currently in the process of spinning up a triple point low to the east of Chignik. This low is expected to track northeast over Kodiak Island through Thursday afternoon and then southward into the North Pacific by Friday afternoon. The previous thought of a second triple point low developing is longer relevant with just the the one dominant low, therefore, this forecast package reflects this. The front associated with the aforementioned low pressure center is currently moving through Kodiak Island with periods of rain expected to continue through the evening hours becoming more showery after midnight. This front continues moving northward through the evening hours through the day Thursday night bringing periods of rain to Seward and the Prince William Sound area. Gale force winds will accompany the front as it moves northward with high end gale force winds and low end storm force gusts expected Thursday night along the North Gulf Coast as the front pushes up against the Chugach Mountain range. Multiple upper level shortwaves are expected to move northward across the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl and MAT-SU Valleys this evening and overnight that are expected to bring periods of showers. During the day on Thursday, expecting southeasterly flow to strengthen aloft which will keep the typical downslope areas generally dry, though, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Next, an inverted trough has been showing up across model guidance for Thursday evening through Friday evening. Depending on where this sets up will determine who sees prolonged precipitation. Right now, most models are depicting any precipitation with this to be confined to the Prince William Sound area and Seward northward to the Talkeetnas. Right now, the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Matanuska Valley look to remain dry, though, a few showers are possible for the Anchorage Hillside. This part of the forecast is still somewhat uncertain even inside 24 hours now so recommend continuing to check back in for updates as slight shifts will change the precipitation chances.

Lastly, a somewhat quieter regime is expected to begin for Southcentral Friday night through the weekend as an Arctic trough moves over the Alaska Range and through Southcentral. Overall, expect clearing skies with outflow winds expected through the typical areas, (i.e, Whittier, Barren Islands, Seward). This will also usher in the coldest air mass thus far for the season with temperatures cooling over the weekend. This could be the first possible freeze/frost of the season for many areas, therefore, stay tuned.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday afternoon) .

Little has changed since the previous forecast. A zonal jet streak, located south of the Aleutians, will move a surface low across the AKPEN and into the Gulf. With low pressure moving out of the area, rain will gradually subside through Thursday morning. A ridge builds into the Southwest beginning Friday morning, bringing cold, dry air from the north. Lows will drop near freezing Thursday night, with subfreezing temperatures likely Friday night in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. Precipitation chances remain low over much of the Southwest until another low approaches from the west early next week.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3: Today through Sunday afternoon) .

A low in the eastern Bering will depart southward this evening, brining gusty northerly winds in the western Aleutians on its backside. A ridge will develop in its wake and will lead to gusty northwesterly winds out of bays and passes on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula between its axis and an upstream Gulf low. These winds will continue through Friday. Quiet conditions will be expected under the ridge across the remainder of the Bering/Aleutians. A low will approach the western Bering Friday afternoon with its associated front tracking west to east across the Chain through Saturday, bringing periods of heavy rain and higher southeasterly winds.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday).

Gulf of Alaska . Lingering northwesterly high end gales through the Barren Islands and Sitkinak areas behind an eastern Gulf low diminish over the western Gulf by Sunday. Seas to 15 ft over the western Gulf, subsiding Sunday. A front moves across the Gulf through Monday. Southeasterly high end gales precede the front as it extends across the Gulf and along the Alaska Peninsula coast through Monday. Seas building to 15 ft east of Kodiak Island for Monday. The low weakens as it enters the Gulf for Monday.

Bering/Aleutians . A well developed western Aleutian low weakens as it moves along the Aleutians into the western Gulf by Monday. Predominantly high end gales with local areas of storm force winds with the wind-wrapped low, slowly diminishing through Monday. Seas to 20 ft on the Pacific side of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Monday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday).

A cold snap is forecast for the weekend as a wave of low pressure rotating around the periphery of a polar low further to the north is able to dig southward and all the way into the Gulf on Saturday. Sub-freezing temperatures aloft will accompany the low's passage through the Alaska interior followed by weak ridging of high pressure over the Gulf and Southcentral. This should promote favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling during the overnight hours and the end result will be freezing or near- freezing surface temperatures from Southcentral into Southwest early Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, an amplified low will be progressing eastward across the Aleutians with unsettled conditions ahead and behind the low. Elevated winds gusting to gale force and and showery conditions will impact the southern Bering, the Aleutian Chain, and the Alaska Peninsula throughout the day. By Monday, the amplified low will begin to weaken while overtaking the entirety of the Gulf. East to northeasterly barrier jet winds are forecast along the Gulf Coast with the Shelikof Strait likely to experience the highest winds. With low pressure expected to remain south and confined to the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska, much of Southcentral and Southwest will experience drier conditions. However, there are some hints that a weak front will sag southward across Southcentral Monday into Tuesday, but any rain chances will likely be confined to upslope flow over the higher terrain.

Further ahead and of less certainty entails the Tuesday through Wednesday period. Latest numerical guidance is in loose agreement with the arrival of a strong North Pacific low overtaking the Western and Central Aleutians late Monday into Tuesday and expanding eastward to the Southwest coast by Wednesday morning. This will see another round of enhanced winds, showers, and widespread low-level stratus next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gales: 119 120 130 131 132 139 352 172 173 174 175 176 177 411 413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . NS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MV SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AP/KC MARINE/LONG TERM . MK/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 13 mi85 min NNE 23 G 29 46°F 53°F3 ft1003.6 hPa (-2.7)44°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi45 min NE 11 G 14 47°F 1005.3 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi45 min 54°F1001.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK37 mi2.4 hrsSE 10 G 193.00 miRain Fog/Mist43°F41°F93%1004 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm------Calm--Calm--------------SE7
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1 day agoE5------------E6----E64--SE5------6--Calm--------
2 days agoE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska
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Applegate Island
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Thu -- 12:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:33 AM AKDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:21 AM AKDT     9.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM AKDT     5.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM AKDT     11.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.76.54.22.41.41.32.13.55.37.38.89.69.58.77.56.25.45.25.878.510.111.311.6

Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska
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Culross Bay
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Thu -- 12:20 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:26 AM AKDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:07 AM AKDT     9.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM AKDT     5.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:09 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM AKDT     11.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.46.23.92.21.31.42.33.85.87.89.29.89.68.67.36.15.35.367.3910.611.711.7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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