Monday, August8, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
For Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/2/2022 Added link that gives more frequent observations on airport weather. Click on the Temperature field in "Airport Reports" or the link to 5 minute data just below the table.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 10:21PM Monday August 8, 2022 2:03 PM AKDT (22:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 11:58PM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 405 Am Akdt Mon Aug 8 2022
Today..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Fri..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 081347 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 547 AM AKDT Mon Aug 8 2022

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A large upper-level low is centered over Western Alaska this morning, producing unsettled weather across the vast majority of the southern half of Alaska. A broad surface low sits under the upper-level low, centered in Kotzebue Sound, but extending its influence far southward along a series of fronts. Its occluded front wraps across Interior Alaska into Southcentral, producing upslope showers along the southern side of the Alaska Range. A warm front spans out ahead of the low across Southcentral, roughly from northern Cook Inlet to along the north Gulf coast, fed by a modest stream of moist, southwesterly flow across Cook Inlet and the western Gulf. As a result, moderate to heavy upslope rainfall has been persisting on the south and western slopes of mountain ranges across the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage Bowl, northern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. In addition, low pressure in the Interior has induced a strong southerly flow up Cook Inlet, as well as through the Copper River Basin, with gusts up to 35 mph consistently observed overnight in Kenai and Gulkana, respectively.

Behind this, a cold front stretches westward across Southwest Alaska and across the Bering Sea, bringing rain and south to southwesterly winds up to 30 mph to the region. A broad, disorganized low south of the western Aleutians is producing marginal wind and precipitation impacts as its front grazes the marine zones south of the Chain. High pressure over the Bering Sea, sandwiched between the front to the north and low to the south, is keeping the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula under a layer of stratus.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models are generally in good synoptic agreement that the large upper-level low over Western Alaska will exit to the Canadian Arctic by Wednesday as an amplified shortwave trough dives south from Chukotka into the southern Bering through Tuesday night. Models diverge in the evolution of this shortwave as it cuts off into a closed upper low. In particular, the speed of the eastward progression of the upper low is uncertain as it moves into the western Gulf with an associated surface low for Thursday. This decreases confidence in the timing of gap winds through the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN on Wednesday, as well as the duration and placement of heaviest rain over Southcentral through midweek.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. As rain continues through this evening, ceilings will periodically drop below 5000 ft. Southerly winds will continue, with winds generally 15-20kts and gusts to 25-30kts. The timing for the end of this rain event is somewhat uncertain, though rain is expected to decrease in intensity late this evening through Tuesday morning and cease later on Tuesday. Gusty southerly winds also gradually diminish along with rain for the same time period.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night) .

Persistent precipitation driven by a deep and cold upper-level low over the Seward Peninsula will continue into midweek. A brief respite in the precipitation on Wednesday will be followed by a wave approaching from the Gulf. This persistent rainfall, augmented by rainwater drainage from surrounding mountains has encouraged a Flood Watch to be issued for the Mat-Su valley. Strong southerly winds will be consistent across Southcentral through Tuesday as the low moves through the Interior and weakens. Gusty conditions in places such as Turnagain Arm, Knik Valley, and Copper River Basin, are expected through today. Southerlies up to gale force are also expected over the Cook Inlet waters.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night) .

An upper-level low located near Norton Sound this morning extends its associated surface front across Southwest Alaska. Gusty winds and rain with the front will taper off throughout the day today as the front exits the domain. As a result, expect clearing skies, light winds, and drier conditions to begin on Tuesday for most of Southwest. The exception lies with the Alaska Peninsula, as a North Pacific low will track northeast along the region and maintain cloud cover and rainfall through Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night) .

The main feature of note is an upper-level trough rotating across the Bering Sea while its associated surface front extends from west to east across the domain. The Pribilof Islands will continue to see rain through this evening while the front gradually moves south to the eastern Aleutians. Areas of fog and low stratus will persist across most of the Bering and Aleutians today. By Tuesday, an upper-level ridge of high pressure moves east over the domain. As a result, expect clearing skies, light winds, and drier conditions to unfold through Wednesday night. The exception lies with the eastern Aleutians, as a North Pacific low will track northeast along the region and maintain cloud cover and rainfall through Wednesday morning.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday).

Gulf of Alaska: An area of low pressure is expected to track from south of the Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf between Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast confidence for this system is improving slightly, but model disagreement for the progression of this low persists. The best potential for any winds reaching gale force near or north of the low will be where terrain funneling is favored, or south of the Kenai Peninsula to the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait, depending on low track and intensity for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, seas less than 15 ft and small craft winds or less are anticipated, extending to the entire Gulf region as the low weakens on Friday.

Aleutians/Bering: Confidence remains high for most of the Bering and Aleutians to remain under the influence of large scale high pressure, with seas less than 15 ft and small craft or lower winds generally prevailing. The exception will be near portions of the Alaska Peninsula and far eastern Aleutians, where a North Pacific low will track northeast for Wednesday and reach the western Gulf by Thursday. The chance for northerly winds to reach gale force on the back side of the low near the Alaska Peninsula is increasing somewhat, but model disagreement for the low is still leading to decreased forecast confidence for the higher winds. Expect any gale force winds to diminish Thursday as the low weakens and shifts east, but higher gusts could persist through gaps and passes along and south of the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutian Chain through Thursday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday).

Overall, the larger scale pattern based on deterministic models and respective ensemble suites for the extended period is becoming a little better resolved, but discrepancies with a couple key details still leave trends in sensible conditions somewhat in question. Forecast confidence is once again highest out across the Bering/Aleutians, where a very inactive, calm pattern should persist through at least the first part of the weekend due to a longwave high pressure ridge sitting in place. Relatively dry and increasingly warmer conditions will persist near and downstream of the upper ridge across the Aleutians and Southwest through at least Saturday, with some hint at a ridge breakdown and more active conditions looming by Sunday.

For the eastern portions of the forecast area, much is hinging on the eventual fate of a trough and attendant surface low swinging into the Gulf from the AKPen region on Thursday. Recent guidance is coming into better agreement for the trough to close off into an upper low over the Gulf by late Wednesday, where it will likely aimlessly drift in place for several days thereafter. Weak upper ridging will develop north of the center over portions of the southern mainland, potentially leading to seasonably warm and dry conditions for the end of the week across at least northern parts of Southcentral. The consensus is that the upper low stalled out over the Gulf will begin to shift south and away from the coast between Friday and Saturday, allowing rain near the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound on Thursday/Friday to mostly abate by Saturday. Recent ECMWF ensemble guidance depicts this shift south happening earlier, with the operational GFS and ensemble mean still keeping the low and associated clouds/rain in place near the coast for longer into the weekend. In short, the difference between a warmer and drier weekend and a cooler/wet one for Southcentral will heavily depend on when and if the Gulf low pressure retreats south quickly enough.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Flood Watch 111 145. MARINE . Gale Warning 139 140. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . CQ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP/CL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AF MARINE/LONG TERM . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 13 mi74 min N 18G19 51°F 1 ft1018 hPa (+0.0)49°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi34 min SE 22G24 56°F 1019.4 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi52 min 58°F1017.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK37 mi71 minE 610.00 miOvercast49°F48°F97%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSE7E8
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1 day ago5E5E4E4E505E4E50000SE3SE3000005
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2 days ago4W40000E5000E30000000SE4E56E7--5

Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska
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Applegate Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 AM AKDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM AKDT     8.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM AKDT     4.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:36 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:53 PM AKDT     12.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Applegate Island, Alaska, Tide feet
12
am
9.4
1
am
7.2
2
am
4.7
3
am
2.4
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.8
7
am
2.1
8
am
3.9
9
am
5.8
10
am
7.4
11
am
8.4
12
pm
8.4
1
pm
7.8
2
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6.9
3
pm
5.8
4
pm
5
5
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4.8
6
pm
5.5
7
pm
7
8
pm
8.9
9
pm
10.7
10
pm
12
11
pm
12.4


Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska
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Culross Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:53 AM AKDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:19 AM AKDT     8.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM AKDT     4.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:38 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:39 PM AKDT     12.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska, Tide feet
12
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9.2
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6.8
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4.3
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2.1
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0.7
5
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0.3
6
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0.9
7
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2.4
8
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4.3
9
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6.3
10
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7.9
11
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8.6
12
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8.5
1
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7.8
2
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6.8
3
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5.7
4
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4.9
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4.8
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5.7
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7.4
8
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9.3
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11.2
10
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12.4
11
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12.6


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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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