Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whittier, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Sunday morning)...

A broad occluded low currently centered northeast of Atka is the primary feature of concern through the weekend. Currently a broad swath of high-end gales exists within the cold sector of this storm from Shemya to just west of Nikolski, while the warm sector is pushing through the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) this evening with breezy winds and rain. While the primary low center will fill in, it will be replaced by multiple new centers developing within the baroclinic zone along the front over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Models currently have one of these progged to develop over the southern AKPen this afternoon, which can be seen beginning to take shape on satellite imagery by a small kink in the cloud shield along the primary cold/occluded front. This will become the deepest low center for the overnight period, which will help to amplify winds and increase the gradient to the north of the AKPen and eastern Aleutians. As this drops south early Friday morning, the strongest winds can be expected for the eastern Aleutians due to cold air advection and an isallobaric component to the winds.
Meanwhile, an additional, and stronger low will develop farther to the south along another triple point, before recurving up to the north and performing the Fujiwara dance with the low that developed overnight. Models have consistently placed this very small, and deep low near Sand Point around sunrise on Friday. This will once again tighten the gradients and bring the period of the strongest winds to Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula during the daylight hours on Friday before it then drops to the south.
Winds will be the highest through channeled terrain on the south side of the AKPen, particularly King Cove and False Pass.

For the precipitation aspect of this forecast, expect light to moderate rain/showers from the eastern Aleutians through the AKPen and into Bristol Bay. With the strong winds, this rain will likely fall sideways and overall be an unpleasant day to be outside.
Despite relatively cold air aloft, the strong winds through Kamishak Gap and downsloping off the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges should keep sea level locations in the mid 30s to 40s and rain.

For Late Saturday and Sunday the influence of the low will slowly wane, but breezy conditions will persist from the central Bering east and throughout Southwest Alaska. Shortwaves moving north into the Interior will also bring chances to areas of likely light snow for the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The workweek opens with a well developed upper level closed low over the Western Gulf of Alaska. Forecast confidence remains quite high through the week. A reasonably clustered GFS/ECMWF/Canadian composite hold through late Tuesday before an ensemble blend takes over the changes in the pattern through Thursday. This low weakens through midweek and dissipates into a trough entering Southeast Alaska for Thursday. Strongest winds on the backside of this low with areas of gale force gusts over the Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula diminish over the North Pacific early Tuesday. Areas of heavy rain move from Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula along the North Gulf Coast move towards the Canadian Border by Wednesday. Higher elevations will see more snow. An upper level ridge extends across the Northern Bering through the week.

The moderately strong remains of Tropical Storm Barijat invade the Western Aleutians late Monday. Some heavier rains and gusty winds with areas of gale force gusts spread into the Central and Eastern Aleutians through Wednesday before the low weakens and drift back into the North Pacific to the South of the AKPEN by the end of the period. Another upper level ridge stretches over the Bering from the West through Thursday.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...Predominantly MVFR/VFR conditions to persist through the afternoon then VFR expected through the remainder of the period.
Northerly surface winds to remain under 10 kts through Friday morning but increasing chances for windshear as easterly winds aloft start to increase in response to system moving into the western Gulf of Alaska.