Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whittier, AK

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK

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Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 290040 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 440 PM AKDT Sun May 28 2023

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS

A broad upper level low currently extends across Southern Alaska and is bringing the cloudy, cool and damp weather to Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows showers and rain moving northwestward across the Gulf of Alaska into Prince William Sound and over the Kenai Peninsula.

MODEL DISCUSSION

Guidance remains in fair agreement with respect to the placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. Biggest forecast challenge continues to be resolving small scale local effects.
Forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions will continue for this TAF period. A Southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind will gust to 20 kts at times from 00z/07z.



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A cool and showery pattern is likely to hang on across Southcentral through midweek. An upper level low continues to drift near the north Gulf Coast this evening, with several weak shortwaves rotating around it to the north of the center. These weak waves are helping to set off another round of scattered showers, especially where breaks in cloud cover have allowed surface heating to generate some low level instability. An isolated thunderstorm or two will remain possible this evening, namely over the Susitna Valley and eastern Kenai Peninsula, and perhaps even over the northern Copper Basin. However, most of this activity will probably remain too low-topped to produce much lightning.

Looking to Memorial Day, the upper low over the gulf will shift southeast as a weak, narrow ridge tries to establish itself to the west near the Alaska Range. This will support a very weak component of offshore flow aloft, perhaps just enough to clear out some of the cloud cover towards the Cook Inlet region for at least part of the day. Unfortunately, this will not be the case for most of the region, with a number of weak upper waves expected to drift nearly aimlessly around the weak ridge. This should help drive another round of ample shower activity, particularly towards the Copper Basin.

Very weak flow aloft will continue into Tuesday, with another, stronger upper low expected to drive southeast near or just south of Kodiak. At the same time, another easterly wave will push into the Copper Basin and Prince William Sound around the periphery of the low drifting into the AK Panhandle. Widespread showers are again expected near this feature, eventually spreading east towards the Kenai Peninsula and Mat Valley by Tuesday night.
Uncertainty for the track and timing of the shortwave increases going into Wednesday, with some solutions attempting to push the wave over the mountains towards the Cook Inlet with other solutions bending it south into the Gulf as it begins to shear apart. This will mainly affect precipitation potential between the Mat Valley and Kenai Peninsula on Wednesday, with much higher chances for rain if the more north solution plays out.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A cool, cloudy, and wet pattern continues for Southwest Alaska as an elongated upper-level low remains situated across the southern mainland of the state. A shortwave trough tracking out of Interior Alaska will push into the Kuskokwim Delta region this evening, promoting continued rainfall for portions of the Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. The rain tapers off through Monday morning as a weak transient ridge passes over Southwest Alaska. Behind it, a potent upper-level low dives south from Chukotka, bringing with it another unseasonably cold air mass. This will bring widespread rain across the region beginning Monday night. For the Kuskokwim Delta, rain is likely to mix with or transition entirely over to snow as a cold front pushes through Tuesday morning. As a result, high temperatures across Southwest Alaska on Tuesday are expected to barely reach the low to mid 40s. Uncertainty with precipitation amounts and temperatures increase for eastern portions of the domain as there is still significant disagreement with progression of the upper low.

As the low continues to dig southward, cold air will filter across the eastern Bering Sea as well as the southern Alaska Peninsula. Anticipate increased winds through the gaps and passes south of the AKPen and Eastern Aleutians. Weak high pressure ridging sits further west, leading to areas of low marine stratus.
A front extending off a developing Kamchatka front will move over the Western Aleutians Wednesday morning, bringing rounds of rain showers to the area. With the exit of the upper-level low into the North Pacific, the Bering ridge begins to nudge in over Southwest Alaska, allowing a return to closer-to-seasonal temperatures on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

There is good ensemble agreement that an upper level ridge will nose westward from Yukon Territory to over the central Alaskan interior while an Aleutian low remains over the eastern Aleutians.
Forecast confidence however is lower than average due to Southcentral being on the periphery of where the Aleutian low meets the upper level ridge. The current projection hints at the odds showing a slight tilt towards cooler than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. However, if the ridge extends farther southwestward, that would result in Southcentral experiencing warmer and drier conditions.

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Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska

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