Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:27AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 7:41 PM AKST (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 324 Pm Akst Wed Jan 27 2021
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Thu..E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Thu night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
Fri..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 280200 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

A vertically stacked low centered over the Bering is gradually lifting toward the northeast. As the leading front associated with this low moves inland over Southwest Alaska, precipitation has just begun falling. This broad front extends southward over the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Areas near Bristol Bay are seeing lower visibility as snow spreads in this afternoon. Snow will also be arriving to the Kuskowim Delta as the front continues to push eastward. Meanwhile to the east, an upper level ridge is in place over the mainland and Gulf of Alaska with mostly clear skies for the Copper River Basin. High level cirrus clouds will continue tracking eastward ahead of the front.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Overall, models remain in generally good agreement. The biggest challenge across model solutions has been the location of a triple point low forming in the vicinity of Kodiak Island as the remnant front over Southwest approaches the Gulf of Alaska. Currently, the NAM solution places the low center farther north and paints a northeastward track, while the GFS advertises a more compact low centered to the south and tracks it eastward toward the central Gulf. This difference in position and track will affect wind fields over the marine areas, as well as strength and duration of winds along the northern Gulf coast Thursday night through Friday.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist this afternoon with patchy fog in the vicinity. Light snow is likely to begin around midnight as a weak shortwave moves through the area. This will lower ceilings to MVFR criteria. Downsloping should bring an end to the snow Thursday morning, however ceilings are expected to remain MVFR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening) .

A front is currently tracking near Kodiak Island and will initially bring mixed precipitation to this area before changing to all rain. There remains some uncertainty regarding a low tracking behind the front. A more northerly track would allow for warmer air to build in and thus lower snow totals. The southerly track would do the opposite. The front will continue northward late tonight into Thursday. An initial upper level shortwave will lead to minor (less than an inch) accumulations in the Anchorage bowl between midnight and 3am. These will taper off as the aforementioned front tracks into the Gulf and the upper trough dissipates. This low will become vertically stacked and stall in the Gulf leading to steady precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound. Significant snow accumulations are expected along the coast, diminishing farther inland. Travel may be difficult along the Seward highway Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, particularly through Turnagain Pass. The low will depart overnight Friday into Saturday and cool, dry conditions will return across Southcentral.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Blowing snow has been observed along the Southwest coast this afternoon as a front moves inland today, verifying the Winter Weather Advisories that are in effect. The advisory for blowing snow for the Kuskokwim Delta should expire this evening, while the advisory for snow and blowing snow for Bristol Bay will continue through the evening as heavy snow will persist through the evening hours. Areas from Koliganek west will likely see around 6 inches of snow overnight tonight into early Thursday morning before the front weakens as it moves out of the region. The showery pattern will continue throughout the day on Thursday as the associated low center moves into the Kuskokwim Delta. By Friday, clearing conditions move into the Southwest mainland as a much quieter pattern sets up for the start of the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

A front over the eastern Bering will continue to trek into Southwest Alaska this evening as rain begins to become more showery along the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Thursday morning. The associated low north of Shemya this afternoon will continue to weaken as it drifts eastward through late Thursday. Cold air advection filtering in behind the departing low will keep a showery pattern set up across much of the western and central Bering and Aleutians through the end of the week. Strong winds over the central Aleutians to Alaska Peninsula could bring some blowing snow to the areas, but visibility is not expected to significantly drop. By Friday afternoon, the next low pressure system approaches the western Aleutians, which will allow warming temperatures and widespread rain to return to the region.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Saturday through Monday).

Gulf of Alaska - Minor model differences exist, but confidence is good through the period. A series of weak lows rotate around the Gulf through Mon. Widespread northwesterly small craft winds with areas of gale force winds from the Alaska Peninsula over the Western Gulf diminish Mon. Gustier winds near small craft remain through the Barren Islands on Mon. Wave heights to 18 feet over the Southern Gulf subsiding Mon.

Aleutians / Bering - Minor model differences exist, but confidence is good through the period. The Southwest Alaska low maintains a good gradient over the Eastern Bering through Sun. Widespread northerly small craft winds with areas of gale force winds near the Alaska Peninsula diminish Sun. Wave heights to 14 feet near the Alaska Peninsula Sun. A well developed Western Bering front moves across the Aleutians and Bering through Mon. Widespread southeasterly small craft winds with areas of gale force winds increase to high end gale force winds with pockets of storm force winds over the Central Bering Sun, diminishing in the Eastern Bering Mon. Wave heights to 24 feet spread over the Aleutians and Bering through Mon.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7).

A pattern change is expected during the extended forecast period. The upper level trough that will extend across Southcentral on Sunday will shift eastward as upper level ridging moves across the Alaska mainland on Monday and encompass all of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time, the upper level ridging over the Bering/Aleutians on Sunday will move eastward as an upper trough moves over the western Bering/Aleutians on Monday. This upper trough over the western Bering/Aleutians will persist through Wednesday. This pattern change will cause a gradual increase in temperatures across Southcentral and Southwest from this weekend into the middle of next week. The pattern will also remain dry for Southcentral and Southwest as offshore flow persists through the area. Meanwhile for the Bering/Aleutians, the primary low tracks are expected to remain in the far western Bering/Aleutians as the upper trough will help provide a more favorable environment for low pressure systems. There is good ensemble and deterministic agreement in both the Rossby Wave pattern and the placement of the lows in the western Bering/Aleutians, thus forecast confidence is above average for a long term forecast.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Weather Advisory 155 161. MARINE . Gale 119 120 125 130-132 150 155 165-179. Heavy Freezing Spray 139 140 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . KO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AH MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 13 mi51 min W 1.9 G 1.9 29°F 38°F1013.5 hPa (-1.6)20°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi41 min NNE 14 G 16 1012.6 hPa (-1.7)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi59 min 43°F1010.5 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4W5W4W6W4W4W4565W6W6W6W5W7W8W7W8W8
G17
1 day agoW9----6W7W9
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W5W7W8W8W8W6----33--Calm3CalmW3NW3Calm
2 days ago--E14
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G30
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G26
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G33
E13
G27
5

Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska
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Applegate Island
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Wed -- 01:00 AM AKST     9.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM AKST     4.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:20 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:44 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:10 PM AKST     12.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:05 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:03 PM AKST     -1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.39.89.48.36.75.14.34.668.110.31212.712.310.88.35.22-0.4-1.3-0.61.446.7

Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska
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Culross Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:46 AM AKST     10.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM AKST     4.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:21 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:45 AM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:56 AM AKST     12.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:03 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:50 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:56 PM AKST     -1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.7109.48.16.554.34.76.48.610.812.41312.310.57.94.71.6-0.6-1.3-0.41.84.67.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.