Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whittier, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 9:41AMSunset 3:55PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 2:54 PM AKST (23:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 2:59PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 409 Am Akst Tue Nov 30 2021
Today..NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
Wed..E wind 15 kt shifting to W 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
Wed night through Fri..W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whittier, AK
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location: 60.63, -148.17     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 301552 CCA AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 652 AM AKST Tue Nov 30 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

An upper level low with its corresponding surface low are currently spinning over the northwest Gulf of Alaska. As a result, this system is bringing a great amount of "warmer" air northward as it displaces the deep Arctic air that has been sitting over much of Alaska to the west. This can be seen when looking at the water vapor loop and nighttime microphysics which show the main upper level low that has been sitting over interior Alaska these past couple days over the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. To the west of this, northwesterly flow continues throughout much of the Bering as very cold air continues to flow over the relatively warm water surface of the Bering causing occasional snow showers for the Pribilofs, Dutch Harbor, Cold Bay, and King Cove. King Cove has been observing sustained 35 to 50 mph west-northwesterly winds most of the night with gusts upwards of 68 mph or (59kts). These snow showers continue to lower visibility to between the 1 to 3 mile range though an occasional heavier snow shower is reducing visibility to as low as three quarter mile.

Looking back at Southcentral, as the surface low continues spinning over the Gulf, northeasterly winds have made it into the Matanuska Valley with Palmer gusting as high as 36 mph so far and Wasilla gusting upwards of 45 mph as a tight pressure gradient has taken shape. As a result, temperatures are MUCH warmer compared to last night at this time in the mid 20s. Anchorage Ted Stevens International Airport has also warmer dramatically from last night with a temperature of 25 degrees and a 10 kt north wind. The only below zero temperatures able to be found across Southcentral this morning is in the Copper River Basin with Gulkana sitting at 2 degrees below zero. Cordova is currently the warmest spot with a temperature of 39 degrees! Therefore, any precipitation falling there is rain this morning. Further west, Whittier has also warmed to as much as 35 degrees earlier in the evening but has since cooled back to just above freezing with light snow being observed. Homer is also observing snow with warmer temperatures this morning as the low is pushing moisture over the mountains to the east. Kodiak is now on the backside of the system with gusty west- northwesterly winds and temperatures back below freezing as colder air advects into the area.

Looking across Southwest, the coldest air across the southern Mainland is currently across the Kuskokwim Delta where temperatures are in the single digits and teens below zero. This combined with gusty northerly winds is resulting in wind chills to as low as 40 below zero. As a result, A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect this morning. Temperatures are also this cold for areas such as Aniak and Sleetmute though winds are light and variable. Light snow is currently falling across Dillingham and interior areas of Bristol Bay this morning with temperatures in the single digits below zero and single digits above zero making it dry and powdery. Lastly, a frontal system can be seen on satellite moving into the western Bering/Aleutians in association with a North Pacific low.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models continue to be in good agreement on the evolution of the synoptic features out through Day 3. Yet again, continuing on with the rinse and repeat as this has been the story for the last several days now is the nitty gritty details of the smaller scale features. The forecast challenge remains with the timing and progression of individual shortwaves which continue to make for a very tough forecast regarding sensible weather across Southcentral, especially regarding the Anchorage Bowl, northern Kenai Peninsula, and Mat-SU Valleys area. As this low continues northward and inland, models are struggling with resolving exactly how the low will interact with the surrounding mountains and such. Therefore, this package was mostly spent in the above areas to continue fine tuning what may happen.

Out west, models are in good agreement on the evolution of the pattern with persistent northwesterly flow, storm force system moving into the western Bering later today. Any edits this package were continuing to fine tune the gusts through bays and passes along the Alaska Peninsula and continuing to fine tune the PoPs, QPF, Snow amount for the Bristol Bay area today. See Southwest section for more details. Models also agree on a much stronger storm force frontal system moving into the western Bering/Western Aleutians Wednesday night through late in the week.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions are expected to continue through around 18z this morning before lowering to around 5000ft. Ceilings are expected to lower further into the MVFR range around 21z as well as visibility lowering to around 2-3SM as light snow is expected to move over the terminal at this time. Light snow is expected to continue through the remainder of the TAF package peaking between 01/03-12z when ceiling and visibility may drop to IFR conditions. Conditions are expected to gradually improve back to MVFR conditions after 01/12z. Winds are expected to remain generally 10kts or less throughout the TAF package.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday night) .

A vertically stacked low over the northern Gulf will lift northward across Southcentral this afternoon through tonight. An upper level low and trough digging southeastward across the Alaska Peninsula this morning will move into the western Gulf this evening, then lift northward toward Southcentral. These features will cause persistent precipitation along the Gulf coast, with periods of mostly light snow inland. The snow forecast for inland areas from Anchorage to the Mat-Su and the Copper River Basin is particularly challenging. The upper low which moves inland first, opens up into a fairly diffuse trough. There is then some uncertainty in the track of the stronger short-wave which approaches late tonight. This makes it difficult to nail down the timing and accumulation of snowfall. Nonetheless, most areas should see some light snow and accumulation will generally be very light.

The current storm over the northern Gulf has brought warmer air with it and temperatures have steadily risen across the region. While this has led to a changeover to rain in Cordova, all other areas remain cold enough for snow. This will be short-lived however, as Arctic air accompanies the trough crossing the Alaska Peninsula, moving into the Gulf this afternoon then northward across Southcentral tonight into Wednesday. This will change all precipitation back to snow. The primary impact of the cold air advection will be another round of strong gap winds across the western Gulf and Kodiak Island. As the surface low heads inland later today, winds blowing from Bristol Bay into Kamishak Bay, will bend northward into southern Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay. This will bring another round of blowing snow and reduced visibilities from Homer northward to Anchor Point, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

The upper level low which settles over the northern Gulf tonight will exit eastward Wednesday night through Thursday, allowing even colder air to filter southward through the Alaska Range into Southcentral. Temperatures will trend downward once again, with sub-zero temperatures likely as we head to the end of the week. The one wild card in how cold it gets will be cloud cover, as it does look like a short-wave trough will dig south across the mainland Thursday through Thursday night. Depending on its track, there could be some clouds out ahead of it which would slightly moderate surface temperatures. Meanwhile, the deep cold air combined with persistent pressure gradients will maintain gap winds along the coast.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today through Wednesday night) .

An upper level low situated over the Southwest coast is working in tandem with a surface low in the Gulf to produce a band of light snow draped across Southwest Alaska from just west of the Kuskokwim Mountains to the southern Bristol Bay coast. This band of precipitation is expected to continue to linger throughout the day today. Snowfall associated with this band of precipitation is expected to produce only slight accumulations, around 1 to 2 inches. Further bands of light snow associated with the Gulf low may cross the Aleutian Range into eastern portions of the region tonight through Wednesday, producing light accumulations for Sparrevohn and Iliamna.

Cold northerly flow wrapping around the back side of the Gulf low is currently keeping temperatures in the negative teens across western portions of the Kuskokwim Delta region. Combined with winds, this is producing wind chills near negative 40 which are expected to continue through the day today before the pressure gradient driving the winds begins to relax as the Gulf low pushes further east. Cold northerly flow, however, will continue to push across Southwest Alaska, shutting off the moisture stream and resulting in lowering temperatures area-wide over the next several days.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Today through Wednesday night) .

Blowing snow and gap winds will be the main impacts for the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN through Thursday. Cold air wrapping around the back side of a broad low in the Gulf will enhance snow showers and gusty northwesterly winds across the eastern Bering Sea. These conditions will combine to produce blowing snow with visibilities dropping to as low as one half mile at times, particularly along the Alaska Peninsula as far northeast as Port Heiden through this evening. See the Winter Weather Advisory for the Alaska Peninsula for more details.

As the low shifts eastward into the Gulf, the strongest cold air advection will follow, resulting in intensifying gap winds through the AKPEN beginning today. These winds, enhanced by a strong upper-level shortwave will produce widespread gale force winds with storm force gusts possible out of gaps along the AKPEN through Wednesday night.

Out west, conditions will be dominated by a storm-force low crossing the western and central Bering. This low is expected to produce widespread gales and snow showers through the western and central Aleutians through Wednesday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday).

Gulf of Alaska: There is high confidence a low pressure system will linger in the Gulf while slowly weakening. Gale to storm force winds are likely through the Barren Islands on Thursday. Winds should subside below gale force on Friday.

Bering Sea/Southwest: There is high confidence a gale to storm force front will move into the western Bering on Thursday, extending east off of a deep Kamchatka low. The front is expected to weaken below gale force once it reaches the Pribilof Islands, but westerly gales are likely to develop behind the front. By Saturday, confidence is moderate that another gale force front will move into the Western Bering, but exact details where the low center is expected remains low.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday).

Forecast confidence of a high amplitude, progressive pattern is high through the extended period. Starting Thursday a low over the Kamchatka Peninsula will pull a deep fetch of warm air and moisture across the Bering Sea. The parent low is expected to remain over Kamchatka, resulting in the front occluding by the time it reaches the Alaska Mainland. Temperatures are expected to remain cold enough for snow over the mainland as the front moves onshore Friday night. This system will also help to push out/erode away some of the arctic airmass that has lingered over the state for the past two weeks.

Behind this first, weaker system is a much more significant push of warm air and moisture. The primary low is expected to form east of Kamchatka and rapidly deepen. Some model solutions have this low developing into a bomb cyclone with widespread rain and warm temperatures spreading east across the Bering Sea. The timing of the occlusion will determine the primary precipitation type over the southwest mainland, but at this time there looks to be a decent chance for freezing rain over interior areas before the cold air catches up and turns the precipitation back to snow. For Southcentral this could be a very significant southwest to southerly flow snow event. With a more stout cold airmass ahead of the moisture and the warm air being rapidly pushed to the south, widespread snow appears likely at the start of next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Special Weather Statement 161 Winter Weather Advisory 131 121 181 Wind Chill Advisory 155.

MARINE . Storm Warning 411 413 130 Gale Warning 351 352 412 414 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 174 175 176 177 178 180 120 131 132 138 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 414 150 160 165 180 181 185 130 131 137 138 139. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . MV SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CQ MARINE/LONG TERM . CJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 13 mi64 min WNW 3.9G3.9 33°F 40°F977.6 hPa (+1.0)33°F
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 70 mi54 min NNE 13G14 38°F 977.7 hPa (+1.1)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 75 mi72 min 43°F977.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK37 mi61 minWNW 41.25 miFog/Mist23°F21°F92%979.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PATO

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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This dayW6W300----0----3--W4W53W300000000W4
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2 days agoW5NW6W5W7W5W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Applegate Island, Alaska
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Applegate Island
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Tue -- 03:27 AM AKST     2.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:40 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:32 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM AKST     11.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:50 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:25 PM AKST     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:26 PM AKST     10.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Culross Bay, Wells Passage, Alaska
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Culross Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:20 AM AKST     2.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:40 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:33 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM AKST     12.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:49 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:18 PM AKST     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:12 PM AKST     10.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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