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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday...
Today..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 021312 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 412 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A tranquil weather pattern continues over Southcentral Alaska with mainly clear skies, patch fog, light winds and seasonal temperatures over most of the area this morning. Seasonal temperatures will continue today and Sunday before a deep low moving north out of the northern Pacific into the northern Gulf of Alaska begins to impact the weather with increased clouds, precipitation and winds.

This next low pressure system is forecasted to move into the area Monday with a notable increase of precipitation and wind. Models continue to struggle on the exact track and strength of this next storm but generally agree on a northerly trajectory out of the northern Pacific and fairly good consensus toward the low moving into the northern Gulf by midweek. Small differences in the track of the storm as well as the strength of the storm will have implications that will cause a wide spread in potential precipitation and snowfall totals, especially for the eastern Kenai and western Prince William Sound. Warmer air is expected at the onset of precipitation with this system, but cold air will quickly follow. Stay tuned as we head back into an active weather pattern next week.

CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Saturday through Monday evening)...

Conditions remain generally unsettled across Southwest Alaska and the Bering/Aleutians as a longwave trough lingers over the region, with several smaller features rotating around the weak cyclonic flow in place. Southwesterly flow over Southwest Alaska is drawing up moisture from Bristol Bay with areas of light snow from New Stuyahok and Sleetmute to around Bethel this morning. Farther west, an occluded low spins near Shemya, with areas of gale-force winds and mixed rain/snow showers for the western Bering and Aleutians. Its front extends toward the Pribilofs, where a new surface low is trying to spin up just west of Saint George Island.
Yet another low sits well south of the eastern Aleutians with its front south of chain, but close enough to bring gusty winds, clouds, and scattered rain/snow showers from Nikolski to Cold Bay.

For today, areas of light snow will continue with the banding already in place between central portions of Bristol Bay and the western half of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley, enhanced a bit by late morning as a shortwave lifts through the region. A general 1 to 3 additional inches of accumulation will be possible along an axis running roughly from Koliganek to Sleetmute and Aniak through Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, another area of light snow looks to set up in a similar fashion as an area of low level convergence and lift sets up east of a trough drifting into the Kuskokwim Delta. This will develop a bit farther to the west, with another 1 to 3 inches of new snowfall likely for spots including Pilot Point, Dillingham and Aniak. Snow should mostly begin to taper off on Monday as colder air begins to filter in as northerly flow sets up to the northwest of a strong low entering the Gulf.

Over the western half of the Bering and Aleutians, the general showery and unsettled pattern is set to continue for the foreseeable future. The gale force low currently north of Shemya will progress east towards Adak on Saturday, then dive south of the Aleutian Chain on Sunday as a shortwave ridge builds into the far western Bering. Another shortwave trough and attendant low will swiftly advance into the western Bering as it progresses east on Monday, sending another round of more numerous rain and snow showers along the western half of the Aleutian Chain. Cold air advection and surface pressure rises behind this trough will help support another round of west to northwest gale force winds expanding east along the western Aleutians through Monday evening.

-TM/AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)
Tuesday through Friday

Models and ensembles start in good agreement through Wednesday, but diverge through Friday, reducing forecast confidence. The upper level longwave trough extends from Eastern Siberia across Southwest Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska with closed centers over Eastern Siberia and the Gulf of Alaska. Changes in the overall wind flow over Eastern Asia show the two centers melding into a single center along the Western Alaska Coast by Thursday. Ridging into the Western Bering gains slight to moderate amplitude through the forecast period.

The most active weather will occur with the Gulf low as it approaches the Southern Coasts. Widespread precipitation begins over Southeastern Alaska and develop over Southcentral through Friday. This low will generate a Easterly barrier jet with areas of gale force winds along the Gulf Coasts, beginning with the Southeast on Tuesday, North Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and developing towards Kodiak Island for Thursday. The Western portions of this low brings gale force winds from the Eastern Aleutians along the Alaska Peninsula, diminishing Thursday. As the Gulf low moves inland, gales will spread from West to East over most of the Bering through Friday. Cooler temperatures bring mostly snow to the Western parts of the state.

Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the weekend.

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