Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunrise, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Friday)...

Southwest AK...A large upper level low is centered over the Gulf, with a short-wave extending northeastward to the Copper River Basin and into the Yukon. The short-wave is amplifying as it tracks slowly westward, with widespread rain spreading from the Susitna Valley across the western Alaska Range to interior Southwest AK.
Out ahead of this, a stout short-wave ridge extends from the AK Interior southwestward to the Kuskokwim Delta. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms that moved over the Y-K Delta this morning has largely dissipated. However, breaks of sun are leading to some redevelopment of convection this afternoon. With fairly extensive cloud cover, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain less than what was observed this morning.

The general pattern will hold for the next couple days (Wednesday/Thursday). Steady wetting rains will continue to spread southwestward across the Alaska Range and into interior Southwest tonight, with the bulk of rain falling east of a line from Sleetmute to Koliganek. Areas closer to the Alaska Range will see upward of 1 inch of rain through Tuesday morning, leading to rising water levels along the Stony River and other tributaries flowing out of the Alaska Range. The upper level short-wave will stall along the Alaska Range and slowly shear apart on Wednesday, with rain over Southwest rapidly diminishing. A remnant area of light rain will track south across Bristol Bay through the day.

Meanwhile, the upper level ridge and low level thermal trough and axis of instability will be nearly stationary from the Kuskokwim Mountains north and west across portions of the Y-K Delta. Expect an uptick in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening for these areas, with a repeat expected on Thursday. While the greatest instability will be inland, storm motion will steer showers and thunderstorms southwestward toward the coast.

For Friday, an upper level short-wave and surface frontal system extending from a low in the Bering Sea will approach Southwest AK, This will likely lead to a narrow band of showers and possible some thunderstorms over Southwest. The position of this is hard to pinpoint right now.

Bering Sea/Aleutians...A second upper level low is centered near the western Aleutians today. A surface low has formed out ahead of this, coincident with a subtropical jet streak and short-wave trough. While the low will not get much stronger, a series of short-waves with abundant moisture from the Pacific will lift northward across the Aleutian chain and into the southern Bering through Wednesday. This will lead to periods of rain, heaviest from around Nikolski to Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. Also expect some gusty southwest winds ahead of a surface frontal system. The low will weaken over the central Bering Wednesday through Friday. Fog and low clouds will remain a threat in areas not impacted by the stronger winds with this system.

-SEB

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The long-term pattern continues to look unsettled across the Bering Sea, Aleutian Chain, and across the Southern Mainland. A low in the Bering Sea spreads showers along the Aleutian Chain to the Southern Alaska Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. This system also brings showery conditions to Southwest Alaska by Sunday afternoon. At the same time, weak upper-level shortwaves lift northward from the Gulf of Alaska and across Southcentral Alaska.
This will help produce showers across the Southcentral Interior Saturday and Sunday; namely the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. There could be enough instability in place Saturday and Sunday afternoon across the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley to produce a few lightning strikes in more robust showery activity. There airmass across Southwest Alaska looks to be more stable than that across portions of Southcentral, therefore, lightning strikes are less of a threat there.

For Monday, the Bering low that brought showers across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and Mainland Southwest Saturday through Monday, now sends it energy into Southcentral by Monday evening.
Therefore, expect showery conditions to continue across much of Southcentral Monday evening through much of Tuesday.

Back to the west, a stronger North Pacific low and front push sustained southeasterly gale-force winds with storm-force gusts into the Western Aleutians and western Bering by Monday morning.
Also accompanying this system will be moderate to heavy rain at times. Rain and gusty winds move to Adak/Atka by Monday afternoon and evening and to Unalaska/Nikolski by Tuesday morning.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist in spite of the rain; which should taper off late this evening. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will increase again this afternoon through evening, with gusts reaching up to 25 kts.