Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sunrise, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Dry conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska through the end of the week, with exceptions along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, Nunivak Island, and the Western Capes who will see continued rain showers through at least tonight.

A new low pushes out of the North Pacific crossing the Aleutian Chain into the Southern Bering Sea tonight into Friday morning.
Its front brings a reinvigorated round of precipitation to the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula as well as a swath of southerly small craft winds with areas of gales through the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Small craft to gale force winds will move north, spreading along the Southwest coast on Friday. Gusty southerly winds to continue for areas such as Cold Bay and out of northern gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula.

A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for prolonged southerly flow into coastal Kuskokwim Delta. Gusty southerly winds are pushing additional water towards the coast, potentially raising water levels higher than the normal highest tide line.
This pattern will persist into the early weekend, and as the front approaches the Southwest coastline on Friday, onshore winds may increase, decreasing by the late weekend.

-CL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup through midweek next week with the lowest confidence being toward the low center over the Bering Sea. High pressure will generally remain across the mainland of the state. Meanwhile, a closed low will linger over the Bering Sea and another in the Gulf of Alaska.
A North Pacific low drifting east along the Aleutians towards the Gulf will merge with the main Gulf low by late Monday. The two main upper lows over the Alaska waters may phase, keeping unsettled weather across much of the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula. Strong high pressure will block any significant movement in the weather pattern for most of the next week, but embedded shortwave troughs may allow for smaller, meandering features to resolve with rainfall and breeziness. Over the mainland, easterly waves emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or thunderstorm development.
Toward midweek, the ridge appears to build further, suppressing both lows, and leaving warmer and drier conditions more likely for most of Alaska. While confidence is high with the overall pattern, confidence is low for the weather associated with finer features near coastal communities due to slight variations in low centers.




AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. The sea breeze from this afternoon will likely end by midnight. Gusty, southerly winds will likely return to the terminal Friday evening, peaking late Friday night to 15 to 25 kt.