Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newtok, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A cold front will continue to track east across the Interior Monday night into Tuesday, bringing scattered light to moderate snow showers and an uptick in winds throughout the day Tuesday.

- Additional snowfall amounts through Tuesday will range from around 1-3" in the valleys and 3-6" across higher elevations.
Locally lesser totals are expected across the Upper Tanana Valley around Tok and Northway.

- Winter Weather Advisories are now in effect Monday night through Tuesday for much of the region to account for a cold front passage leading to difficult travel conditions at times.

- High confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea mid-to-late week which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in rain/snow showers, gusty winds particularly through Alaska Range Passes, and the warmest temperatures so far this year.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue along the West Coast into Tuesday, as scattered light to moderate rain and snow showers will continue across the Western Interior. These showers will taper off Monday into Tuesday west to east Tuesday ahead of another system moving in Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Additional snowfall amounts through Tuesday will be a T-2" in the Western Interior with a rain/snow mix possible farther south.

- Strong winds will continue through the Bering Straight and portions of the NW Arctic Coast through tonight, leading to areas of blowing snow.

- High confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea mid-to-late week which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in heavy snow and gusty winds initially Tuesday night into Wednesday, transitioning to a mix of rain/snow showers with pockets of mixed precipitation as much warmer temperatures build in out of the south.

- Winter Storm Watches are now in effect late Tuesday night through Wednesday into Thursday from the Y-K Delta to Kotzebue and out at St. Lawrence Island for snow and gusty winds leading to possible blizzard conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered light snow showers will continue to lift north into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope tonight through Tuesday night. Additional snow accumulations around T-2" are expected in this region, highest in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic Plains.

- High confidence supports a strong low pressure system moving north through the Bering Sea mid-to-late week which will eject a series of fronts. This system will bring in widespread snowfall chances (lower chances for mixed precipitation) to the Brooks Range and Western North Slope, gusty winds, and the warmest temperatures so far this year.

- This week will see a significant warmup from temperatures in the double digits below zero temperatures earlier in the week to 20s/30s above zero later in the week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Today through Wednesday Night.

Afternoon satellite imagery shows broad upper level troughing over Northern Alaska, with mostly clear skies across the North Slope and West Coast and a cold front continuing to track east over the Interior. As this front supports scattered snow showers across much of the Interior, it will culminate with with moderate to heavy bands of snow and gusty winds tonight into Tuesday west to east. Went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the Central/Eastern Interior to account for this, with the main impacts centering around heavier snow bands and gusty winds leading to difficult travel conditions. Additionally, icy roads were observed around Fairbanks Monday morning and we could see a repeat of that Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning as wet surfaces refreeze. Snow chances will also continue for the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope, just with lesser accumulations. Temperatures that are already well below normal along the West Coast and North Slope will fill in behind this cold front, supporting those colder temperatures moving into the Interior.

High confidence supports an upper level ridge of high pressure building in out of the southwest tonight into Tuesday, bringing about progressively drier conditions for those locations seeing precipitation. Quickly filling in behind that very narrow ridge, very high confidence supports a strong low pressure system lifting north through the Aleutians Tuesday night into Wednesday into the Bering Sea. This system will eject a series of fronts, bringing in widespread precipitation chances, gusty winds, and the warmest temperatures so far this year to all of Northern Alaska.

While the Central/Eastern Interior looks to be drier, the bulk of precipitation will remain focused farther west. Initially, the first front will be predominant snow with gusty winds, before warm air advection on the back side of the front allows for a much warmer airmass to lift north into our region. Warmer temperatures will progressively build south to north, leading to mostly snow transitioning to a mix of rain/snow showers with pockets of mixed precipitation at times. Winter Storm Watches for possible blizzard conditions have been issued for the West Coast to capture where the strongest winds and moderate snow to heavy snow rates are expected with the initial front. Warming temperatures looks to moderate blowing snow potential later in the week, with the potential much higher midweek as the precipitation lifting north encounters a very cold airmass already in place. Additionally, the Alaska Range will be another area to monitor for strong winds giving the enhanced gradient supporting at least advisory level gap winds through the passes. Overall, big changes are on the way to Northern Alaska as this system brings in more spring-like weather back to our region.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Monday.

Impacts from a strong low in the Bering Sea will continue later into the week as a warmer airmass building in out of the south brings about a substantial warmup to Northern Alaska. A mix of scattered rain/snow showers and gusty winds particularly along the West/Arctic Coasts and across higher elevations will continue through the weekend as the low gradually breaks apart and dissipate its energy. Higher precipitation totals will remain focused across Western Alaska into the Western/Northern Interior, in addition to farther south through the Alaska Range down into Southcentral. Looking ahead, another strong low remains on track to move into the Southern Bering Sea this weekend which could bring about another round of precipitation and gusty winds. More details on this will come into focus over the coming days but for now, it is looking warmer and potentially not reaching as far north which would tend to mitigate lifting deep into our region.
Overall, more spring-like weather remains on track to return our area later this week and it looks to stay as we finish out the month of April.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-837>850.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ815.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ816>818.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>824.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-806-807-810-853-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-817-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.