NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 218 Am Akst Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..NW winds 15 kt.
Tonight..NW winds 15 kt.
Tue..W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow.
Tue night..S winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
Wed..SW winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
Wed night..W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
Thu..NW winds 25 kt.
Fri..N winds 25 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 041231 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 331 AM AKST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Another fairly quiet day as scattered snow showers continue over the West Coast and Western Interior. The quiet is short-lived as a series of lows and associated fronts move east across the Bering Sea to the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday, bringing gales and snow squalls to the St Lawrence Island to Norton Sound area, and possibly Y-K Delta, and accumulating snowfall to the West Coast and Western Interior.

DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, a robust 484 dam (decameter) low is centered over central Siberia this morning, while a 503 dam low is over the Bering Strait. The low over the Bering Strait weakens into an open wave this afternoon, lifting north along the Chukchi Sea coast through Tuesday and into the Chukchi Sea Tuesday night, as the Siberian low pushes east to be a 485 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr by Wednesday morning. The Siberian low continues east southeast to be centered over Norton Sound as a 494 dam low Thursday morning. A 501 dam low tracking northeast this morning out of the far north Pacific will move to the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday, pushing an elongated 540 dam low centered over Banks Island (and stretching west to the Chukchi Sea) north.

At the surface, a 990 mb low 100 NM northwest of Shishmaref this morning moves north to be 25 NM west of Point Hope this afternoon, 75 NM northwest of Point Hope Tuesday morning, and 150 NM northwest of Point Hope by Wednesday morning. A 958 mb low in the far north Pacific weakens to 965 mb as it moves into the central Gulf of Alaska Tuesday morning. A 995 mb low 300 NM west of St Lawrence Island this morning will move east to be over St Lawrence as a 990 mb low Tuesday morning and then to the Bering Strait Coast by Tuesday afternoon, dragging a front with it. This low will weaken Tuesday night. A 998 mb low over the far eastern Sea of Ohkotsk this morning will deepen to 988 mb as it moves east to be 350 NM west of St Lawrence Island Tuesday morning and to 980 mb as it moves to be 150 NM west of St Lawrence Island by Wednesday morning. As this low dives southeast Wednesday into Thursday to the Y-K Delta, another low spins up near the Seward Peninsula.

Models...The 04/00Z model solutions were in fair agreement with the overall synoptic pattern. Though model solutions were in better agreement tonight, differences are still apparent, largely in the placement and timing of the various surface lows in the Bering Sea. This has been the case for the last several days.
Forecast confidence in the exact evolution of the lows is low, but confidence in the overall picture they are painting is good. Some of the largest differences remain in the placement of the strongest winds through the Bering Strait and over eastern Bering Sea. Leaned towards the AKNAMNEST for the first half of the short- term period for winds; for the latter half blended the MAV and MET for the to account for some of the spread in solutions, as well to keep the higher wind speeds in the forecast. Took a look at a variety of ensemble guidance in hopes of increasing forecast confidence. ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance point to increasing probabilities of wind gusts pushing into the high wind warning criteria through the Bering Strait, including Diomede and the Bering Strait Coast. St. Lawrence Island has lower probabilities of seeing 60 mph+ wind gusts. Currently are leaning towards sub high wind criteria, though this will have to be reevaluated with later forecast packages.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Not a lot of change today for the area, as areas of stratus, fog, and flurries persist. A few snow showers possible from Wainwright east through Tuesday as a low moves north into the Chukchi Sea.
Snow chances increase Tuesday night and Wednesday for the areas of the Dalton Highway as a shortwave moves across the area.
Accumulations will be light. Winds largely less than 15 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Today will be very similar to yesterday, with scattered snow showers continuing as troughing remains over the area. Snow showers diminish tonight. The first of two fronts will move to St Lawrence Island by early Tuesday and to the Bering Strait coast by Tuesday afternoon, bringing snow squalls and westerly gale force wind gusts to primarily St Lawrence Island. A second and stronger front moves over Saint Lawrence Island Tuesday night and then inland on Wednesday, bringing heavy snow squalls and gale force winds from the YK Delta to Saint Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait. As the low shifts south, gale force northerly winds gusting as high as 50 mph will bring heavy snow squalls and periodic near blizzard conditions to the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island into the weekend. Snow amounts will range from 2 to 5 inches, heaviest for Saint Lawrence Island and the southern Seward Peninsula, from Tuesday through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Stratus has been slow to diminish, though headway is being made across the White Mountains and Yukon Flats. Across the SE Interior, the stratus refuses to budge and is accompanied in some locations by fog. Areas under the stratus are significantly warmer, at 12Z Eagle is a balmy 17 above zero, than locations where skies are clear, where temperatures are below zero. High temperatures today in valley locations, will large range from the single digits above zero to ten below zero. Tonight valley temperatures will drop to 10 to 20 below. Above inversions, temperatures will be warmer. A shortwave moving north on Tuesday and Wednesday will bring increased cloud cover, slightly warmer temperatures, and snow chances to the eastern Interior. Only light accumulations are anticipated. The Tanana Valley Jet continues to today at 15 to 30 mph, shutting off tonight.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended period is dominated by an upper level low and surface reflection moving southeast over southwest Alaska. As the low tracks southeast, it will send cold air to the West Coast, northerly gales, and potentially heavy snow squalls for the Bering Strait to Saint Lawrence Island area, as well as possibly the Y-K Delta.
Flow aloft turns southerly across the Central and Eastern Interior. Snow chances return for the Interior as fronts move north from the Gulf of Alaska, with light snow accumulations over the Interior to the Brooks Range. Temperatures remain above normal through the week for the Brooks Range and North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Westerly gales will bring elevated waters levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line to parts of the YK Delta Wednesday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Kokechik Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:29 AM AKST     2.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM AKST     4.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:01 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM AKST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:47 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM AKST     6.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Romanzof
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:04 AM AKST     1.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM AKST     4.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:02 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:31 PM AKST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:27 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM AKST     6.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Bethel/Anchorage,AK