Sunrise 5:01 AM   Sunset 10:50 PM Moonrise 2:34 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 329 Am Akdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from tonight through early Saturday morning - .
Today - SE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing fog. Tonight - E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sat - E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sat night - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun - N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Sun night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Tue - SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 170933 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 133 AM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Overall, fairly benign weather conditions will continue the next few days, with warming temps out west after today. It will remain seasonal over the Interior with afternoon shower threats along with isolated thunderstorm chances, mainly over the higher elevation terrain.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a fairly narrow Interior ridge positioned over the ALCAN and into the Beaufort Sea, with heights at the center around 553 dam. There is a large upper low complex over Siberia and the Chukchi Sea with heights around 521 dam. There is a broad upper low over the Gulf of AK with heights around 542 dam. At the surface, the main low center remains over the Bering Sea with a low of 999 mb over the W Bering Sea, and another Chukchi low around 998 mb, north of Wrangel Island.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in good synoptic agreement through Saturday then they begin to diverge Sunday as a low in the Gulf shifts east, and some of that energy forms a surface low over the SE Interior. Models are all over the place with the details of that low, but the general consensus is there will be a chance for more sustained and heavier precipitation sometime Sunday and Sunday night over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range, this we will utilize a blend by that point. Prior to that, hi-res models were favored for winds and precip chances as we enter a showery regime for the Interior.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Today will be fairly similar as yesterday with high temps in the mid 60s along with a bit more clouds today. There will be shower chances this afternoon favoring the higher elevation mountains, and an outside shot for isolated thunderstorms over the Fortymile Uplands. Saturday is warmer with a better chance for isolated thunderstorms over larger swaths of the Interior as east flow develops.

A developing low Sunday will bring increased chances for heavy showers and rain (higher elevation snow over the E Alaska Range)
over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drying trend continues today and then it begins to gradually warm tomorrow into the weekend as a low dives into Bristol Bay and then the Gulf of AK, which will switch winds from southerly to easterly then northerly Sat into Sun. Spotty showers will be possible Sat and Sun with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms over the Interior on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The warmer chinook pattern will end today and then east-northeast winds increase Sat and Sun as an arctic high strengthens. Th is will likely bring in periods of stratus and fog. Temps will fall back closer to seasonal norms with this pattern.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast by Monday looks fairly messy with several upper level lows rotating around the Mainland. There will likely be continued chances for Interior showers and isolated thunderstorms before a deep upper low and surface low develop Tuesday and move into the West Coast and shift inland Wednesday.
The E Interior will likely see some degree of chinook warming Tue and maybe into Wednesday, but the details are just too far out to hash out at this juncture.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Some scattered showers with a slight chance for isolated thunder today develop mainly over the higher elevations of the Interior over the Fortymile Uplands to the White Mtns. Min RH values continue to rise slowly into the 20 percent range. Temps rise Sat and Sun and there will be south gap winds to 20 mph sustained, but critical fire weather conditions are not expected to occur.
Isolated thunderstorm chances expand to the W Interior Sun as the thermal trough shifts west. Moderate chances for wetting rains develop Sun over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range.

HYDROLOGY
Heavy rains out west have caused some areas to see localized flooding near ice-covered rivers and streams. This should abate with drying weather over the next few days. The Yukon remains ice covered toward the Delta and may see concerns in the future.
However, upstream rivers are not running high with mostly ice chunks and rotting ice, so significant ice jam threats do not look high at this juncture.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.

PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.

Kokechik Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:57 AM AKDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:31 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM AKDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:54 PM AKDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:05 PM AKDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Cape Romanzof
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:32 AM AKDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:32 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:04 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:52 AM AKDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:29 PM AKDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:28 PM AKDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Bethel/Anchorage,AK