Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newtok, AK

DISCUSSION

Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much warmer than normal temperatures continue this week with highs mostly in the 20s before most areas reach the 30s on Friday and over the weekend.

- Heavy wet snow begins late Thursday night and continue through Friday, mainly north and west of Fairbanks. By Friday evening, over a foot of snow is expected at higher terrain along the Dalton Highway between the Yukon River and Atigun Pass.

- Snow mixes with or changes to rain below 1000 ft elevation with up to 0.25" of rain, mainly across the Y-K Delta.

- Ahead of the cold front, southerly gap winds may reach 75 mph through Alaska Range passes Friday and Saturday. High Wind Watches are in effect.

- Southerly winds may gust to 60 mph over Twelvemile and Eagle Summits Thursday night into Friday.

- A NE to SW oriented cold front stalls across the interior this weekend with heavy snowfall west of the front likely. The position of the front is low confidence, but a sharp west to east snowfall gradient is expected in the vicinity of Fairbanks. Light rain is expected to mix with snow along and east of the cold front.

- Behind the cold front, very cold temperatures -possibly the coldest of the winter so far- are expected by the middle to end of next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through this evening for the southern Seward Peninsula Coast, Bendeleben Mountains, and Kobuk Valley, but snowfall is diminishing.

- A fast-moving system brings mainly light snow this evening with rain mixing in tonight into tomorrow. Winds below 30 mph and snowfall amounts mainly less than 3 inches suggests headlines are not necessary, but light rain mixing in at lower elevations on Thursday may result in patchy icing.

- A potentially high-impact storm brings strong winds, heavy snow, and heavy low-elevation rain Thursday into Friday as the storm quickly lifts northeast. Southerly gusts over 60 mph are possible, but temperatures near to above 32F should temper blowing snow impacts. Another foot of snow is possible along the Nulato Hills, Seward Peninsula and Kobuk Valley.

- Water is expected to come up through cracks in the sea ice and make travel over the sea ice very difficult for much of the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Strong winds and snow will begin to develop over the western north slope and Brooks Range on Friday as a strong low pressure system and tight gradient swiftly moves across the area. Southwest winds gusting as high as 75 mph are possible Friday evening when blizzard conditions are possible from Point Hope to Wainwright.

- More seasonable temperatures return to the area Sunday through early next week when a wave of light snow is possible across the eastern North Slope.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...A 995 mb low pressure and associated area of snow from the Seward Peninsula to the Kobuk Valley weakens and shifts northeast into the Brooks Range tonight. A faster moving system brings deep southwest flow and additional rain and snow to the West Coast and Western Interior late tonight and Thursday. A strong storm embedded within the deep SW flow rapidly lifts north from the Pribilof Islands Thursday afternoon to Point Hope by Friday morning. The warm sector of this system taps a feed of moisture from as far south as Hawaii resulting in a Pineapple Express Atmospheric River scenario. Heavy snow is expected on the cool side of the arctic front Saturday through Monday with a rain/snow mix along and ahead of the front. Considerable uncertainty in the frontal location remains with the most likely position between Nenana and Galena though possibly as far east as Fairbanks.
Ensembles indicate that precipitation amounts near and along the boundary will be between 1" and 2.5" of liquid equivalent through the middle of next week.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Active weather continues into the extended period, with the period beginning with heavy precipitation along the Arctic front boundary on Sunday. The front is most likely to set up somewhere between Nenana and Galena, with the heaviest precipitation falling on the cool side of the boundary.
Models seems to be trending toward a low pressure lifting north along the front around Monday that should push the atmospheric river east of our forecast area. Behind the boundary, very cold temperatures will set in. These temperatures may be the coldest of the winter in some locations, and will likely last through next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The storm entering the Bering Sea on Thursday will produce near Storm-force winds offshore as well as possible water moving over the ice or through any open leads along the coastlines of the Y-K Delta and Norton Sound and Northwest Alaska late Thursday into Friday. Shorefast ice may be lifted, and minor flooding may occur in areas where shorefast ice is lifted. There is a high amount of uncertainty in terms of what the impacts of this storm will be due to the track, time of year, and ice extent. Without ice in place, this would be a major coastal storm. Given the extent of the ice and thickness, impacts are expected to be minimal, so no coastal flood products will be issued at this time. The potential for coastal impacts remains south of Hooper Bay and Nunivak Island.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801>803-806-807.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ812.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-816-819-822-823.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ831.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-806-810-811-816-817-850-853-856- 857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.