Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point Possession, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Fog/low stratus remains over the Bering as ridging continues. The low stratus/fog over communities in the Aleutians will follow the same pattern as before, thinning out during the day and filling back in during the evening/night. Meanwhile, the Southwest Mainland is seeing the upper low south of the Alaska Peninsula continue to move eastward. Due to this, lesser cloud cover and greater high temperatures are following. This daytime heating will allow for convection over inland areas of Southwest Alaska.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible (10 to 20%) over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley through the weekend, with thunderstorm coverage increasing each day towards the end of the week. An upper low will drop from the north by Thursday, allowing for cooler temperatures and non-convective rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta.

Back to the Bering, by late Wednesday into Thursday, a low will move southwest of Attu Island. This low will push a front into the Attu/Shemya region, bringing gusty, easterly winds and light rainfall. However, the front will stall against the ridge and will slowly weaken through Friday. The ridge will eventually be squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping into the Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will shrink to the middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and Pribilof Islands area by Friday.

-JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Expect unsettled weather late this week into early next week, though no major impacts are anticipated at this time. The primary concerns during this period will be (a) thunderstorm potential across the interior and (b) relatively warm conditions in Southcentral from late this week into early next week.

Saturday begins with a low in the far western Aleutians, a low moving into Southwest Alaska from the north, and a low approaching Kodiak/Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific. A north-south oriented ridge extends across the Bering Sea, and another ridge will extend over eastern Alaska and into Canada. Putting the pieces together: while ridging will have dominated much of the Southern Mainland and the Bering Sea late this week, the encroaching lows from the Arctic and the North Pacific will bring a transition towards cooler, moister, and more unsettled weather this weekend. The degree to which this happens will depend on how the two lows phase and interact with each other, and how strong the ridge over the interior remains.

Since yesterday, this interior ridge seems to have trended stronger in model guidance, suggesting that the North Pacific low and its moisture may be shunted off into Southwest Alaska or remain in the Gulf altogether, leading to fairly dry conditions in the Southcentral interior. If this were to happen, this may extend the potential for thunderstorms into early next week, and keep temperatures warmer for Southcentral. For Southwest Alaska, precipitation amounts will depend on how the two lows phase and evolve. If the North Pacific low is absorbed into the Southwest low, this will mean greater moisture advection and more rain in Southwest Alaska. If the two lows remain separate, moisture is more likely to remain in the Gulf and lead to drier conditions in Southwest. Either way, it looks likely that Kodiak Island, the Alaska Peninsula, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound will see rain this weekend from the North Pacific low.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the trend is for the Western Aleutians low and its front to gradually nudge the Bering ridge eastwards, leading to more rain and wind moving into the Bering Sea. The displacement of the ridge will also shift where fog and low clouds are likeliest into the Central and Eastern Bering/Aleutians by early next week.

-KC


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.