Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point Possession, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Currently, a vertically stacked low spins in the North Pacific near the southwest Gulf of Alaska. This low will continue into the western Gulf as it weakens through Tuesday. Moisture continues to spill over the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges and into the Southwestern Mainland as well as the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) this afternoon. Moderate rain has been reported across the Dillingham early this afternoon with showery conditions across Iliamna.
Meanwhile, cold northerly flow across eastern Bering has allowed snowflakes to mix in with rain across Unalaska with Cold Bay mainly seeing light snow. Expect snow showers and rain/snow mix to persist across the southern AKPEN through Tuesday afternoon before it tapers off in the evening hours. Rain across the Kuskokwim Valley could also mix with snow Tuesday morning through Tuesday as cold air works in while precipitation is in the ending stage. Expect drier and more benign weather across the AKPEN and Southwest Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge moves in from the Bering Sea.

Farther out west, a gale-force front from a Kamchatka low will begin making its presence felt across the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning as the ridge over the Bering mentioned above moves east to the central Bering. Light rain and gusty southeast winds are a good bet over Shemya early Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning before the moisture axis moves to Kiska by Wednesday morning. Adak may see some light rain showers Wednesday morning, but they will likely be more under the influence of the strong Bering ridge. As the ridge moves east to the eastern Bering by Wednesday afternoon, a weak North Pacific low will lift north to just south of Adak/Atka by late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Adak and Atka can expect light rain and gusty easterly to northeasterly winds Wednesday night through Thursday morning before precipitation becomes more scattered in nature by Thursday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast looks to be characterized by vertically stacked high pressure across the Bering and general troughing south of the Aleutian Chain and across the Gulf. On Friday, there is fairly good consensus between the global models of an upper trough or closed low digging across mainland Alaska. At the surface, the surface troughing looks to consolidate into a closed surface low with a front that lifts northward across the Gulf. If guidance continues to be on track, precipitation will be sent northward across the Gulf coast, and potentially spilling over into Southcentral. Models also roughly agree that coastal ridging will try to develop ahead of the front, in which case could create some degree of a Turnagain Arm wind from an east to west oriented pressure gradient. By Sunday morning, there are significant differences within the models of surface low placement across the Gulf. That said, the pattern looks to remain unsettled through the long term.

-AM


AVIATION

PANC...Intermittent rain showers will continue through Tuesday.
Southeasterly winds have started to increase and will help to provide downsloping to semi dry things out. Early this afternoon as the rains ended, a stable layer developed a few thousand feet off of the ground, allowing lower clouds and IFR cigs to get trapped beneath. Do not expect these clouds to persist for more than a few hours. Expect conditions to become VFR by late afternoon.