Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Valdez, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:31AMSunset 5:55PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 10:51 PM AKST (07:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 11:51AM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 333 Pm Akst Tue Feb 18 2020
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Wed..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Thu and Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valdez, AK
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location: 61.08, -146.32     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 190223 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 523 PM AKST Tue Feb 18 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. There is a strong and nearly vertically stacked low in the Gulf moving rapidly northward. Storm force winds are occurring along the north Gulf coast ahead of this low. There is also a significant amount of moisture associated with this low, with areas of moderate to heavy snow over much of Southcentral. There is a vertically stacked low centered over the Yukon Delta that is moving northward. Some showers and breezy conditions associated with this low remain over southwest Alaska. Flow aloft over the Bering Sea is westerly and flat, with some showers evident. An east to west oriented front is bringing some winds and precipitation (mainly snow) to the central and western Aleutians.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The numerical models are in good agreement through Thursday afternoon. One exception to this is with the low currently in the Gulf, with the NAM faster bringing it north compared to the other models.

AVIATION. PANC . IFR conditions in snow are expected into the early morning hours Wednesday. Conditions should improve to MVFR during the late morning, and then to VFR in the early afternoon as the snowfall diminishes then ends.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). The frontal zone that brought snow to much of Southcentral Alaska has shifted to the west over the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. A surface low is currently developing along this front and will bring a gale-force front to the north Gulf Coast this evening. That system will continue to shift the frontal band to the west while lightening the snow over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. As that surface low moves into Prince William Sound, cold air will come up Cook Inlet and return a final burst of snow through Wednesday morning before tapering off for most inland locations. Snow showers will linger along the Gulf Coast through Wednesday evening.

Yet another front enters the Gulf on Wednesday night. The gale- force front will again ramp up gap winds in favored areas, but look to be weaker than the previous system. Conditions are not as favorable to get winds to come down the Hillside again, but Turnagain Arm should still be very gusty. Overall, expect near normal to slightly above normal temperatures and chances for snow inland with a mix of rain and snow along the coast.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday) .

A low that has been impacting Southwest Alaska for the last couple days is slowly moving up the west coast this afternoon, and is approaching Norton Sound. The southwesterly onshore flow continues across much of Southwest Alaska as the precipitation associated with the low weakens. This should make for favorable conditions for fog and low stratus to develop across much of the area tonight. Otherwise quiet weather will persist through most of the day on Wednesday.

The next low will approach the area Wednesday evening. There is some disagreement in the track of the center, but most of the models bring it up into Bristol Bay Wednesday night. This low will bring another round of snow to much of Bristol Bay. Depending on those differences in track, portions of the area could become windy enough, especially north and west of the low track, to experience blowing snow overnight. Currently the greatest threat is around the Dillingham area. A Winter Weather Advisory may be required for blowing snow if model consistency remains good. The low center will shift into the Gulf on Thursday, and stall out there. This will keep snow showers ongoing over the area both on Thursday and Friday.

The next big weather story will be the influx of much colder air into Southwest Alaska during the day on Thursday. This will result in falling temperatures through the day on Thursday, with below zero temperatures returning to the Kuskokwim Delta Thursday night, and the cold air moves into the rest of Southwest Alaska by Friday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday) .

The main weather stories across the Bering will be a new low tracking along the Aleutians, and the cold air it brings south into the Bering behind it. The low is currently moving into the central and western Aleutians, then will move across the islands Wednesday morning, then tracks along the north side of the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Wednesday afternoon, then moves into Bristol Bay Wednesday night. This low will bring a round of rain and snow to the islands ahead of it, then all snow is expected behind the low. Since the low will be fast moving, no one area is expected to pick up more than a couple inches of snow in a brief hit as the low moves by. The bigger story will be the much colder air moving in behind the low. This will likely return nearly all of the Bering to widespread snow showers. The core of the coldest air will shift eastward into Southwest Alaska by Friday evening. Meanwhile across the western Bering, compact lows spinning up in the cold air will produce brief periods of gusty winds and snows as they move by Thursday and Friday, but exact tracks of those lows remain highly uncertain.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Fri through Sun). Friday night through Saturday night, Gale force west to northwest winds are expected over the Gulf and south of the Alaska Peninsula. A storm system moving into the western and central Aleutians on Saturday will produce gale force winds, which will slide into the eastern Aleutians on Sunday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sat through Tue). On Saturday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level trough over southwest Alaska extending southeastward into the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will very slowly slide northeast across southern Alaska through Sunday then exit into Canada Sunday night as the main upper low retreats northward. A weak ridge will then build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding eastward on Monday. An upper level low just south of the western Aleutians on Saturday will move eastward through Sunday, moving north into the central Aleutians on Monday, then into the southern Bering Tuesday. The exact path and timing of this feature is somewhat uncertain at this time.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . WSW 101 111 121 145. MARINE . Storms 119. Gales 120 125 130-132 150 155 170 172-178 351 352 413 414. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . ML SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . JW MARINE/LONG TERM . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 4 mi52 min 32°F 42°F994.5 hPa (-3.6)
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 18 mi22 min NE 6 G 7 32°F 994.2 hPa
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 20 mi22 min NNE 17 G 19 35°F 993.8 hPa
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 34 mi22 min NNE 6 G 7 46°F 992 hPa
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 43 mi62 min E 29 G 35 36°F 40°F7 ft991.3 hPa (-3.8)
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 47 mi52 min 39°F 39°F992.5 hPa (-4.1)

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK5 mi56 minN 04.00 miLight Rain Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%996.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAVD

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoNE6SE5NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmE3S3SW3E4E3CalmSW3--CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE3W4CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmE5NE5NE3CalmE5E4E3E3NE4SE5CalmNE5SE5CalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:34 AM AKST     4.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:23 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:17 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:42 AM AKST     11.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:41 PM AKST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:45 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:23 PM AKST     9.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.86.75.54.84.75.46.88.49.910.911.110.38.76.43.81.70.30.112.74.96.98.49.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.