.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure over the Bering Sea will work its way over Southwest Alaska, keeping drier conditions in place through this weekend.
Cold northerly flow in conjunction with mostly clear skies will allow for temperatures to drop into the 30's overnight for Southwest Alaska. The lower Kuskokwim Valley is expected to see sub-freezing temperatures Friday night and Saturday night, elsewhere will see a range from 34F to 38F. Since we are expecting drier conditions, we are not expecting any snow just yet.

Unsettled weather over the Aleutians is expected through this weekend. A gale force low over Kiska this morning tracks into the southcentral Bering Sea where it rapidly dissipates. The low fizzles into an open wave and absorbs into an incoming North Pacific low by Saturday morning. The next low, also expected to be gale force, scoots south of the Aleutian Islands through the weekend before tracking into the western Gulf of Alaska on Monday.

Widespread small craft winds will expand across the Bering Saturday into early Sunday and gale force winds develop over the southern Alaska Peninsula and southeastern Bering late Saturday night. Wrap around cold air advection will reinforce the gale force gusts, allowing them to drag along the backside of the low towards Unalaska. Gusts to storm force will also be possible within the belt of higher winds, primarily north of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Long wave low pressure system will dominate the early extended outlook over most of the state and Gulf of Alaska. Models are in good agreement with the upper level low remaining over the northern part of the State with with associated surface features impacting much of the Alaskan Peninsula and Gulf region. The GFS and Canadian models move the axis of the upper level long wave and most of its energy farther south and east than the European, favoring the GFS/Canadian solutions. Conversely, the GFS and Canadian models better handle the shortwave features, south of the Aleutians and Alaskan Peninsula with the Canadian being more aggressive with eastward speed and intensity.

Locally heavy precipitation will spread from the Central Aleutians, over the Alaskan Peninsula and Kodiak Island and across the Gulf through Tuesday. Moderate rain will occur over the Southcentral coast, with lesser amounts moving inland. The associated surface features also bring near gale force winds with gale force gusts over the Southern Bering, diminishing on Wednesday. Widespread gale force winds extend along the Pacific side of the Aleutians and AKPEN through the end of the outlook period. Ridging high pressure over the Bearing, coupled with the fast moving shortwaves could bring marginal gale force winds and to the central islands and Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and Thursday.

-DD

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Saturday. An upper level shortwave moving through Southcentral will bring a chance for light showers Friday afternoon, but this may be more likely over mountainous terrain.