Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point MacKenzie, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

A vertically stacked low pressure system continues its slow northward progression from Bristol Bay this morning inland near Togiak by afternoon. As it lifts north and continues to weaken, the southeasterly winds through Kamishak Gap will also diminish by this afternoon. Upper level temperatures near -30C will encourage redevelopment of rain showers this afternoon as surface temperatures approach 50 degrees in parts of the the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. Some showers may be intense but brief, but will remain scattered in nature. Increased instability along the Bristol Bay coast will also allow for another round of showers to develop by noon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening, especially around Bristol Bay where instability parameters are greatest. However, there may be just enough cloud cover lingering into the afternoon hours to suppress daytime heating and mitigate any significant convective development.

That system continues to weaken overhead into Thursday, but rain showers will become more isolated over time. On Friday morning, an approaching disturbance from the Gulf of Alaska will return rain to the Alaska/Aleutian range specifically. Overall expect temperatures slightly above normal with scattered rain showers for the next couple of days.

-TM/MTL

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

Much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians is on the back side of the weakening low pressure system. Cold air streaming southward will promote scattered rain/snow showers and gusty northwesterly winds through Thursday, decreasing in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the week. The next system to impact the area will be another frontal boundary approaching the western/central Aleutians late Thursday into Friday. Model guidance is keeping this system south of the Chain, enough to keep places like Adak/Atka with snow as the precipitation type for a brief period of precipitation on Friday.

-TM/MTL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

Unsettled conditions will continue across southern Alaska as low pressure sits over the Bering Sea and an active southern track keep systems moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Broad cyclonic flow with excess moisture will allow for showery precipitation and enhanced northerly gap winds for much of Aleutians and Southwest AK. The embedded closed low that brought moderate to high rates of precipitation to coastal Southcentral midweek will slowly dissipate as it works inland over Prince William Sound on Saturday. Continued damp onshore flow will produce showery rain and mountain snow through the weekend.

An upper level trough traversing just south of the Aleutians will phase with the Bering low, pivoting it into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. This system looks to bring yet another round of breezy conditions and precipitation to the Gulf coast, from Kodiak to the Panhandle.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period.
Light rain is expected early this afternoon. Ceilings could drop to 5000 ft or a little lower at times this afternoon into the evening along with a lower scattered deck as well. Confidence is low on development on an MVFR ceiling. Ceilings lift above 5000 ft this evening and persists through Thursday morning.

Southeast winds early this morning flip back to north and persists through early afternoon. Any low-level wind shear also ends this morning as winds turn north throughout the column. Southeast winds out of Turnagain Arm return this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts at times through the evening hours before flipping back to north Thursday morning.