Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Point MacKenzie, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Multiple winter weather products remain in effect for the Central Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska this weekend.

2) High pressure builds in the Bering.

Key Messages Discussion:

1) Multiple winter weather products remain in effect for the Central Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska this weekend.

Low pressure in Prince William Sound will continue to draw offshore winds through Monday to the Alaska Peninsula.
Additionally, frequent convective snow showers will affect this region into Tuesday in addition to multiple rounds shortwaves move through the area from the Pribilof Islands south to Unalaska and east to the Mainland. The first of these waves, noticed by a shift from northwest winds to northerly winds, brings heavier snow showers into late this morning with another wave expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. A winter weather advisory is in effect for today's shortwave. Coastal areas from Toksook Bay to Kipnuk will continue to experience northerly to northwesterly wind and snow through late this morning. A winter weather advisory is in effect for these conditions. Lastly and of longer duration, northwesterly winds will result in wind chill values ranging from 20 to 40F below zero into Monday morning across the Mainland. The lowest wind chills are expected inland near Bethel and immediately along the coast.

2) High pressure builds in the Bering.

High pressure will build into the Bering through Monday bringing the continued likelihood of convective snow showers for the Aleutians. Northerly winds turn northeasterly as the high pressure continues to build into mid-week. This building high will bring strong gap winds ranging from 40 to 50 mph through the passes during the aforementioned shortwaves crossing the area.

-DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Few changes to the previous discussion. Some hazards to watch for in the long-term include:

* Another round of frigid wind chills as an Arctic air mass moves into Southern Alaska.

* Gusty gap winds, mostly along the coast and affecting locations such as Seward, Whittier, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Kodiak Island.

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure builds across the Bering Sea through the forecast period. Strong northwesterly flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures through next week.

AVIATION

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibility will generally prevail today.
However, with an upper-level low over the Kenai Peninsula slow to move south this morning and a second wave over interior Southcentral also moving south, the occasional MVFR ceiling cannot be ruled out from mid morning through late afternoon. By later this afternoon, a northerly wind around 10 kt, with occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kt, will develop. This increase in wind should allow for drier air to work in over the terminal, scouring out any lingering lower clouds. VRF conditions should continue into Monday as a cold and dry northerly flow persists across the region,