Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:37AMSunset 11:16PM Thursday May 28, 2020 9:56 PM AKDT (05:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 339 Pm Akdt Thu May 28 2020
Tonight..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sat and Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon through Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 290057 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 PM AKDT Thu May 28 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Upper level high pressure is over the northern part of the state with an axis stretching to the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A closed upper level low is just south of the Gulf of Alaska. This vertically stacked low is the one that has been in that general vicinity the past few days. This pattern is producing easterly flow aloft over Southcentral. A weak easterly wave is in the western Copper River Basin early this afternoon and headed westward in this flow. This could be the focus for some afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms.

Light northerly flow aloft is in place over Southwest Alaska where the ridge is suppressing convection. Another low is in the western Bering Sea bringing rain into that region.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Synoptic agreement between the models remains good into early next week. The issue remains dealing with easterly waves (upper level disturbances moving from east-to-west) over Southcentral and Southwest mainland Alaska. While these easterly waves are notoriously difficult for models to handle, the 12Z and 18Z GFS and NAM model runs are showing better agreement in the timing of these waves over the next two days which is increasing forecast confidence.

AVIATION.

PANC . VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

A low moving into the Gulf combined with high pressure over the Arctic is leading to increased northerly flow over region. As such, warmer temperatures and drier conditions are currently observed. A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect for the Susitna Valley. Weak instability may lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along the Alaska Range. Due to the upper level flow pattern, any storms will move east to west. Similar conditions are expected for Friday. Relative humidity values will be slightly higher over the Susitna Valley and thus fire concerns will be lower. However, as the aforementioned upper low moves farther north, more potent shortwaves/vorticity maximums will propagate over the Copper River Basin and the Mat-Su Valley. This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over these regions. Cloud cover will increasing Friday night, with a surface low developing over the Yukon bringing more widespread rain into Southcentral, including Anchorage by Saturday. While the timing/position of precipitation is still somewhat in question, the wetter pattern is expected to continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

The upper level ridge continues to build over the Interior today and tomorrow. This should continue the pattern of offshore flow and warming temperatures for the next couple of days. On Saturday an upper level trough will move through the Kuskokwim Valley and inland Bristol Bay. This will bring extra moisture and instability, so thunderstorms are forecast to begin over the mountains and then extend through the lowlands. This is a change from yesterday's forecast when the more widespread thunderstorms looked like they would occur Friday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

The front that was over the Western Aleutians yesterday is slowly progressing eastward and is expected to be over the Eastern Aleutians by Saturday. At this point a new low pressure center will develop and move into the Central Aleutians. Winds are expected to increase ahead of this low and gale force winds are expected just south of the Aleutian Chain. After the first front weakens on Friday, most of the precipitation will remain in the southern Bering Sea, with conditions improving for the Pribilof Islands.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Gulf Of Alaska: A new low will move into the GOA Monday. There is a chance this new low could bring a barrier jet capable of gale force winds to the north Gulf coast late Monday into Monday night. Expect gusty winds at Hinchinbrook Entrance. There is some model divergence on Days 4 and 5 which adds an element of uncertainty for this region past Day 3. But the model solutions generally point to an active pattern but the tracks of the lows after Day 3 are very different. Stay tuned for updates.

Bering and North Pacific: Monday morning there will be a potent low near Unalaska, and the models are generally suggesting that the surface low will be between 979 mb to 982 mb. There is a tight pressure gradient north and south of the chain, so expect gusty winds and enhanced seas. This low slowly moves eastward just south of the Aleutians and is at 994 mb to 997 mb by Tuesday night. Again there are some timing issues that become more pronounced as the low moves from the Day 3 to Day 5 time period. Stay tuned for more details.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

At the onset of the forecast period, the longwave pattern features broad troughing from the Yukon Territory to Kamchatka. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the pattern with the largest cluster over Adak/Unalaska to the Pribilof Islands. The closed upper level low moves south of the chain by 12z Tuesday. By 18z Wednesday a closed arctic low develops and moves toward St Matthew Island. Overall, the pattern looks unsettled and wet. There is a small upper level high between the Brooks an the Alaska Range. Places like Talkeetna have the best chance for dry weather, but that is not a slam dunk especially since we are in the time of year where afternoon and evening convection develops routinely as a function of day time heating. The instability parameters for Southwest AK also merit close monitoring since there will be additional lift from the shortwaves passing over the area.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . GALES: 173-176, 413. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . AP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . LF MARINE/LONG TERM . EZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi57 min NNE 8 G 14 64°F 51°F1014.8 hPa (+0.0)
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi57 min N 16 G 18 59°F 46°F1014.7 hPa (-0.9)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi63 min 48°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi64 minNNE 1110.00 miFair63°F46°F54%1014.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi64 minNNE 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F44°F50%1014.1 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi64 minNNE 8 G 1710.00 miFair65°F39°F40%1014.3 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi2 hrsNNE 1010.00 miOvercast68°F43°F41%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PALH≥os=west/ak

Wind History from (wind in knots)oops, file error: weather/buffer/PALH≥os=west/akairportwind
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:35 AM AKDT     27.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:19 AM AKDT     9.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:32 PM AKDT     26.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 07:38 PM AKDT     4.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2727.325.322.218.514.711.49.49.913.218.22325.92623.720.115.911.57.64.94.57.212.518.8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:48 AM AKDT     26.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM AKDT     7.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:33 PM AKDT     25.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 07:36 PM AKDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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25.726.625.221.717.312.99.37.29.614.318.922.82525.122.418.413.79.35.52.11.66.41318.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.