Tuesday, September17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday September 17, 2019 12:14 AM AKDT (08:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 359 Pm Akdt Mon Sep 16 2019
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier developing after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the morning near whittier. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 170200 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
600 pm akdt Mon sep 16 2019

Updated extended discussion...

Analysis and upper levels
An active progressive upper level wave pattern is in place across
alaska as the low which brought widespread rain to southern
alaska the last two days shifts east through the gulf of alaska.

This is promoting weak off offshore flow along the north gulf
coast which is helping to clear out some of the lower clouds.

Farther to the north, an arctic trough is digging southward across
the brooks range and is beginning to impinge upon the alaska
range. A deep trough is stationed over the western bering sea,
and this trough is tapping an impressive region of low level
subtropical moisture. This low will be the beginning of a period
of rainy and stormy weather for the southern alaska and north
pacific regions heading through the weekend.

Model discussion
The numerical weather models are in surprisingly good overall
agreement with a continuation of the overall "progressive" upper
level flow and general storm track. With the next low moving into
southern alaska Tuesday and Wednesday, models are in excellent
agreement with widespread rain and the overall low track
(regarding details of gap winds in southcentral). Forecast
confidence is very high.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions are expected to prevail, along with light
winds, through the TAF period before rain returns to the terminal
tue evening when conditions will likely drop to MVFR at times.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3 mon
night through Thursday night)...

low pressure over the gulf exits southeast tonight with a weak
ridge building across the western waters overnight. An arctic low
diving across the northwest mainland this evening will bring
increased chances for rain overnight across the susitna &
matanuska valleys as well as the copper river basin with isolated
amounts farther south. This frontal push will increase offshore
flow with gusty conditions expected along the gulf coastal
locations. In areas outside of these winds, patchy fog is possible
as temperatures cool close to dewpoints with the recent abundant
rainfall.

Attention then quickly turns to the next front as it
moves across the western gulf and kodiak island Tuesday morning,
making progress northward over the kenai peninsula during the
afternoon. Rain quickly spreads north to the rest of southcentral
Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Deep subtropical moisture
with this low pressure system will bring appreciable rainfall
amounts area-wide. Gusty south to east winds will be strongest
late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning... With gale force
strength along the northeastern gulf and prince william sound.

Turnagain arm and the upper hillside will see strong winds gusting
between 50 to 60 mph... And may possibly be stronger, so stay
tuned for updates.

On Wednesday, the low driving the front swiftly moves east from
southwest ak to the copper river basin... Diminishing rapidly as
it moves across the terrain. Rain will become less organized
during the afternoon and winds taper down; although, another
system will should make for light rain again through Thursday as
weak disturbances move up from a storm system tracking eastward
along the eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula.

Fire weather Fire weather concerns will continue to diminish as
we remain in a very typically fall pattern. Tonight, a cooler
upper level trough will dive into the susitna valley and the
copper river basin. This will bring some steady showers. Then a
much stronger front will start to move into the area from west to
east late Tue into wed. This front will bring gusty southeast
winds through the typical gaps (turnagain arm and knik arms, the
copper river valley, etc.). It will also bring healthy amounts of
wetting rains to just about all areas with QPF amounts averaging
near 1 inch.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3: Mon night
through thu)...

a ridge cresting over southwest alaska today is bringing a quick
period of diminishing cloud cover along with a drier,
northwesterly flow. The exception to this is along the upslope
side of the kilbuck and aleutian ranges where some low stratus
will linger through the evening hours. Radiational cooling under
the ridge will lead areas of fog overnight, especially for
locations that saw the majority of clearing this afternoon such as
interior bristol bay and the kuskokwim valley.

Rain and gusty southerly winds return Tuesday morning along the
coast as a warm front moves onshore. The front lifts northeast
through the day as it continues to push widespread rain over the
interior southwest. A trailing shortwave then treks across the
southwest on Wednesday as the main surface low moves over the y-k
delta. These two features will help maintain a southwesterly
onshore wind and allow showers to continue across the region
through late Wednesday. A weak trough then drops over the northern
half of southwest alaska early Thursday, allowing for a colder,
drier northwesterly flow across the kuskokwim delta with
continued showers along the alaska and aleutian ranges.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3: mon
night through thu)...

a surface low over amchitka is currently swinging a warm front
toward the eastern aleutians and the akpen with a trailing cold
front tracking east towards nikolski. Widespread areas of small-
craft winds and rain will continue along both fronts as the system
continues to jog east tomorrow. Small-craft winds will increase
to gales along the warm front as it occludes and lifts north of
the pribilofs. Northwesterly gales will also develop over the
southern bering and central aleutians tomorrow as colder air wraps
around the back side of the surface low. Westerly gales persist
through the first half of Wednesday along the pacific side of the
eastern aleutians and akpen as the low moves onshore near kipnuk.

Farther west, a weak ridge will build behind this first system,
moving from the western aleutians Tuesday to the central and
eastern aleutians Wednesday. Upstream, a deepening north pacific
low will sweep a front with widespread rain and areas of gales
over the western aleutians Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
feature will then weaken as it slides east, with the center of
circulation staying well south of the chain through Thursday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Beginning the extended period marine forecast on Thursday, there
will be a low moving northeast from the north pacific into the
gulf of alaska. This low will reach the north gulf by early
morning Friday, likely bringing gale force winds to much of the
north coast as the warm front barrier jet increases in strength.

The low will then occlude and remain in the gulf of alaska through
Saturday with winds becoming westerly offshore as the low moves
east toward the alcan. Yet another strong low moves into the gulf
of alaska on Sunday and Monday as the storm track remains directed
over the gulf with much more quiescent weather over the bering
sea through the weekend.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An active weather pattern continues through the extended period.

An upper level low remains in place over the northern part of the
state while several troughs rotate across the southern part of the
state. The first surface low travels south of the aleutian chain
and arrives over the gulf of alaska Friday. This low will bring
cloudy skies, rain, and gusty winds as it traverses into the gulf
and eventually lifts inland over the southern half of the state
for the weekend. A second low arrives over the gulf of alaska via
a similar path as the first by late Sunday. This will continue the
trend for cloudy skies, rain, and gusty winds. Models have been
in fair agreement regarding an unsettled weather pattern through
early next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 130 351 352 155 172-178 185 411-413.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ja
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tm
marine long term... Ja ko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi62 min N 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 57°F1003.7 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi62 min S 8 G 9.9 56°F 56°F1003.5 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi62 min 58°F1002.7 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi81 minSSE 310.00 miFair52°F46°F80%1003.3 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi81 minESE 310.00 miA Few Clouds50°F46°F86%1003 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi81 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds51°F44°F77%1003 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi78 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds52°F47°F84%1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PALH≥os=west/ak

Wind History from (wind in knots)oops, file error: weather/buffer/PALH≥os=west/akairportwind
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Tue -- 04:07 AM AKDT     2.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM AKDT     29.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:32 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:20 PM AKDT     3.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:59 PM AKDT     30.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.416.29.84.62.33.99.41724.128.629.627.42317.511.76.63.74.48.916.123.528.830.628.9

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:22 AM AKDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:55 AM AKDT     29.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:32 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:32 PM AKDT     2.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:00 PM AKDT     30.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.715.110.15.61.12.611.51924.428.129.627.322.516.8116.43.13.211.119.224.828.630.228.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.