Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:37AMSunset 11:32PM Thursday July 9, 2020 12:01 AM AKDT (08:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 539 Pm Akdt Wed Jul 8 2020
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri and Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 090307 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 707 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Today has a complex weather pattern southern Alaska with an elongated upper level low stretching from the Southwest Mainland through the northern Gulf of Alaska. A secondary upper low center over northern Cook Inlet enhanced the precipitation north of a front that stretched from it into the northern Gulf and formed a deformation band over the Susitna Valley through the northern Gulf.

A jet streak is running from the Eastern Bering Sea into the Western Gulf today which is interacting with the upper level low in at the upper left exit region of the jet streak. The result is a developing surface low in the northern Gulf which will head south and strengthen over the next day.

The Copper River Basin is northeast of the deformation band with another upper level low just east of it in the Yukon Territory. This has helped to clear out skies there leading to increased instability aloft this afternoon and evening. At this time, it looks like the convection today will be limited to terrain with lower elevations of the Copper river Basin remaining out of the showers.

The Bering Sea is under a surface high pressure in the southern and western part with northwest flow over the northern and eastern regions. This is keeping marine stratus over the Bering and into parts of Southwest Alaska and also keeping the atmosphere stable today over Southwest Mainland Alaska.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good synoptic agreement into the weekend. The main parameter we are watching is the convective instability over Southern Alaska Thursday through Saturday. The NAM and GFS are both with increasing the areas and amounts of instability over the region with the area of greatest instability propagating westward each day.

AVIATION. PANC . Rain should taper off throughout the evening and then somewhat drier air will move in from the northeast through the night. This should keep the ceilings in the 3500 to 4500 ft range through the night before improving by noon Thursday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2 Wednesday and Thursday) .

The main driver of our weather over the southern mainland is the surface and upper level low now over the Kenai Peninsula that is dropping south into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. As this low moves south, drier air moves in behind it overnight. However, moisture from a low over the southern Yukon Territory will move west over south central Alaska Thursday. The upper level low from the southern Yukon Territory will move west and with it increasing instability will lead to increased thunderstorm potential across the Copper River Basin to the Susitna Valley and south over the Kenai Peninsula for Thursday afternoon and evening. Another upper level trough will move in from the north on Friday once again increasing the chances of thunderstorms across south central Alaska.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

Northwesterly flow will prevail this evening through tomorrow morning continuing the cooler temperatures and stable air mass across the region. Rain and showers will continue through this time. Tomorrow afternoon, the flow will shift to northeasterly which will change the conditions we are seeing today to warmer and more unstable. While there is limited confidence in the available moisture across the region, confidence is increasing that thunderstorm activity will occur with chances most likely over the western Alaska Range despite this. Northerly flow will then overtake the area on Friday, continuing warming and further decreasing stability. This will produce greater chances for thunderstorm potential across the southwest, from west of the Alaska Range into the lower Kuskokwim Valley and south towards Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula. Besides this, marine stratus and fog will continue to be a forecast challenge through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).

High pressure will continue to persist through the forecast period for the Bering and eastern Aleutian Chain. The central and western portions of the Aleutian Chain will see rain showers throughout this time as a front stalls over the area, blocked by the high pressure over the Bering. Winds will remain below gale force with no high seas expected, however, marine stratus and fog will continue to be a forecast challenge.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday).

The ridge building over the Gulf by Saturday will stay relatively out of the south across the region through the end of the weekend. Models are then struggling on Monday morning whether a surface low will develop over the southern Gulf. For now, we have thrown out the strongest low development, but winds will likely shift to a more easterly direction on Monday across the Gulf. Looking to the west, winds over the western and central Aleutians will weaken by Sunday afternoon as high pressure persists over the Bering.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday).

A long-wave trough will keep cloudy conditions and rain showers in the forecast through the end of the weekend across mainland Alaska. Once this wave moves out of the region, models are having difficulties in the upper level pattern whether or not a ridge will build in over southern mainland next week. Most solutions show precipitation tapering off by Monday, with lingering showers across the region. However, the GFS is the outlier trying to bring a front across the AKPEN and into Southwest Alaska starting on Monday. Thus, kept a chance of rain in the forecast through the middle of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain average for this time of year through Wednesday.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . NONE. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . SA SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . CK MARINE/LONG TERM . AH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi43 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 57°F 59°F1010.2 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 55°F1010 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi43 min 58°F1008.6 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi68 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F53°F93%1010.2 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi68 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F51°F90%1009.8 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi68 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1009.8 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi65 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F54°F96%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PANC

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE4CalmCalmCalmN5N8N6NW6N5N3N6NE5NE4NE6N8N3N5N8N6N4N6N6N5
1 day agoSW6SW5SW6CalmSW4SW3SW4SW53W63W5NW5NW6NW6NW6NW5W54NW4SW4W5CalmCalm
2 days agoSW6NW3W5W6W7NW8NW7NW6NW5NW6NW7NW7NW9W7W6W9NW9W9W7W5W5W4NW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:03 AM AKDT     6.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:30 AM AKDT     28.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:18 PM AKDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:22 PM AKDT     28.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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27.723.918.7138.26.2812.919.324.827.827.925.421.215.79.84.51.62.471421.126.428.8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.