Sunrise 4:51 AM   Sunset 11:00 PM Moonrise 7:27 PM   Moonset 2:13 AM

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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday - .
Today - W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 211314 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 514 AM AKDT Tue May 21 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak upper level ridge that currently dominates the eastern Gulf of Alaska and Eastern Alaska will continue to slowly drift to the east as a deep and cold for the season upper level trough over the Eastern Bering Sea and Western Alaska slowly progresses to the east. An anchoring low in the trough currently near the Pribilof Islands will weaken as it pushes northeast to be located near Nunivak Island by Wednesday morning. The upper level low will continue to weaken and elongate and will stretch from near the Gulf of Anadyr south and east to near Kodiak Island by Wednesday night.

Several shortwaves will rotate around the upper level low and will bring periods of rain for the AKPen, Kodiak Island and Southcentral through the day today and tonight. A front rotating around the low currently located in the eastern Bering, will push north of Kodiak Island later this morning and will push into the southern Portions of the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon.
Expect widespread rain and snow over much of the area, with some locations receiving heavier rates of precipitation at times on the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and into Prince William Sound.
Southwesterly flow aloft will allow the Anchorage Bowl to get some precipitation Tuesday afternoon as the front passes.
Additionally, a building pressure gradient across much of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains will produce southerly gap winds near the Kamishak Gap, Turnagain and Knik Arms, and the Copper River Basin starting this morning and extending into Wednesday.

As the upper low continues to move eastward into the mainland, a secondary cold front will start extending out ahead of the low Wednesday into Thursday. This will cause temperatures to drop below normal for most locations, increasing the potential for snow to occur at some lower elevations as snow levels decrease. Latest model guidance continues to indicate a deformation band setting up over Cook Inlet, the Anchorage Bowl and the MatSu which will serve to increase precip totals in those areas. A chance for rain and snow showers will persist through Thursday afternoon before the low starts to weaken and move eastward towards Canada.

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Active weather continues as two weather systems are poised to move across the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Southwest Alaska through Thursday. Forecast confidence is moderate to high due to good model agreement, with precipitation type being the biggest forecast challenge as cold air moves in aloft. No major hazards are currently being monitored.

The first weather system features an occluding low near the Pribilof Islands, with its front extending across Southwest Alaska. A stout upper level shortwave rotating around the low has led to an intensification of rain rates along the front this morning, with radar showing moderate to heavy rainfall with reflectivities as high as 50 dBZ. Up to another 0.5" of rain are expected (with locally higher amounts possible) as the front moves east across Southwest Alaska through today, with the greatest amounts expected for Bristol Bay and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Winds have also picked up with the intensification of the front; gusts of 30-35 kt are currently being observed as winds channel through Kamishak Gap and across both interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, gusty winds are also forecast as vorticity and cold air advection help enhance winds. A wide swath of westerly winds sustained at small craft speed (25 kt), with a small area of gales (35 kt), will move across the area through today. Scattered showers are also expected across the Aleutian Islands, with more frequent showers expected for the Pribilof Islands nearer the low center. Conditions gradually improve through today for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands as the low exits into Southwest Alaska. For Southwest Alaska, the incoming occluded low will mean a continuation of precipitation through Wednesday even as the front exits the area. Expect showers to be widespread, especially as another shortwave moves in off the Bering Sea and helps to enhance precipitation.

A second low and its front move into the Western Bering and Aleutians by tonight, signaling a quick return to wetter weather.
Winds will be a bit stronger, with a broader swath of gales wrapping around the low and moving across the Western and Central Aleutians through Thursday. With cold air lingering in the Bering Sea courtesy of today's low, there is a chance for very light snow accumulations for the Pribilof Islands and Kuskokwim Delta coast/Nunivak Island as the front moves through. Precipitation type is a little uncertain, but either way, no more than a light dusting of snow is expected.

-KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Friday, an upper-level low over the eastern Bering drops across Southwest Alaska and into the Gulf by Saturday afternoon. A trough sets up over the western coastline bringing possibly mixed rain and snow for the Western coastline and all rain elsewhere, primarily to Kodiak and the eastern Kenai. A high pressure ridge forms across the Bering before the next upper-level low consolidates and moves eastward from the vicinity of Attu Island on Monday.

AVIATION

PANC...A trough arriving from Southwest Alaska this morning will bring light rain and the potential for MVFR conditions through much of the day. Winds are expected to increase out of the southeast through the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient over the region tightens and the Turnagain Arm wind becomes more prominent. Southeast gusts as high as 40 knots over the Upper Hillside and over Cook Inlet should be more manageable for PANC at 15 to 25 knots.

-BL

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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM AKDT     7.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:13 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:20 AM AKDT     28.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:04 PM AKDT     1.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:14 PM AKDT     27.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska, Tide feet

Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:01 AM AKDT     5.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:13 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM AKDT     28.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:36 PM AKDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM AKDT     27.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:26 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchorage, Alaska, Tide feet

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