Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lake, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Showery conditions will taper off across Southwest Alaska tonight and the Alaska Peninsula as residual low pressure dissipates over the area. Rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type during the daytime hours, however, overnight temperatures may dip below freezing, allowing for any precipitation to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. A slowly decaying front producing southerly small craft winds and light rain currently situated over Adak will push eastward this evening, reaching the Pribilofs and Unalaska by Saturday morning. Benign conditions expected through most of the weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next front moves in Sunday afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, the front, then situated over Unimak Island and False Pass, will be significantly diminishing in strength. However, behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Expect a return to wet and windy weather over Unalaska to Pribilofs by Saturday evening. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, this new Bering system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence on this is still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the dependency on local temperatures, so stay tuned.

Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday morning.

-CL/KM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally, gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian Islands and AK Peninsula, especially through favored gaps and passes.

By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected to build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, while other solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both solutions suggest a new frontal system entering the westernmost Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the progression of guidance.


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. Cooling temperatures and clearing skies overnight could allow for formation of low stratus late tonight into Saturday morning, possibly bringing ceilings into MVFR range or lower.
Confidence in the development of low stratus is still relatively low, and low cloud formation will depend on the degree of clearing of upper level cloud cover tonight into early Saturday.