Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lake, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

The forecast remains on track. Generally expect cloudier, cooler, and breezier conditions as lows dominate the upper level pattern.
Southwest Alaska to see a break in thunderstorm potential through the remainder of the weekend, though much of the region will likely pick up some light rain as widespread rain showers move through. A weakening, vertically stacked, low pressure system will move into the Southwest Alaska coastline through today. By Monday, a robust upper low moving over Southwest may create just enough elevated lift for isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the interior Kuskokwim Delta and Valley. By Tuesday, a slight warm- up for interior Southwest Alaska as the upper low continues eastward and cloud cover diminishes behind it.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, expect mildly improving conditions as the current Bering Sea low exits into Southwest Alaska. Later this afternoon, a North Pacific low and its front will approach the Western Aleutians and Bering, bringing widespread rain and gales across the region. The leading front will move over Adak by Monday morning, and Unalaska and the Pribilofs by Monday evening. As the low occludes and moves into the Bering Sea, expect another surge of 20-30 kt winds for Adak and Atka for Tuesday on the backside of the low.

-CL/KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

An active pattern looks to continue for the long term forecast.
Due to many smaller scale features moving in, there is some uncertainty exactly where they will track. Wednesday will start with shortwaves and fronts in the Bering causing elevated winds and rainfall for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland.
Southcentral will see this troughing stretch into the Gulf of Alaska. This would allow for rainfall, but there is uncertainty on how quickly the troughing will move into the Gulf of Alaska.
This means that rainfall in Southcentral could be delayed if the troughing moves in slower. Things become more uncertain Thursday through Saturday as more features move in. The current thinking is that a ridge will set up in the Bering by Friday, where it will remain through Saturday. Meanwhile, a larger low will move into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing rainfall to the Southwest and Southcentral Mainlands, including Kodiak Island. As for thunderstorms, it seems like convective potential will be low through next week, so storm potential is low for now.

-JAR


AVIATION

PANC...There is a chance (30%) for rain showers to drift over the terminal through this morning. VFR conditions with brief dips into MVFR conditions possible through the morning hours. Light winds expected with brief gusts up to 15 to 20 kts this evening.