Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lake, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

Cold air, gusty northerly winds, and instances of blowing snow continue to rule the roost across the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Gusty winds for the above mentioned areas will see somewhat of a downtrend in strength starting tomorrow/Sunday as well as a slow warming trend.

One of the main driving factors as to why it has been so cold along the AKPEN and even across the Eastern Aleutians has been the southward expansion of the sea ice sheet across the eastern Bering Sea. The sea ice edge has made it to the Bering side of the AKPEN from Egegik to about Cold Bay and is about 110 miles northeast of Unalaska. Therefore, the northerly winds blowing across the sea ice remain cold and little modified. With winds slowly diminishing starting Sunday and into next week, expect a warming trend across the AKPEN and mainland Southwest. However, this warming trend will not be quick, but rather a gradual few degrees each day. Along with the warming trend across Southwest, expect continued dry weather through the short-term period. The AKPEN will continue to see snow showers from time to time, but especially for Monday evening and Tuesday as another upper-level disturbance digs southward across the area from Siberia.

Farther out west, the trend today with regards to the ridge in the central Bering have been stronger. Thus, this trend will allow for Adak and Atka to remain dry through mid-week. West of the ridge, a North Pacific front will move into the western Bering and Western Aleutians by Sunday. Accompanying the gale-force front will be light to moderate rain along the Western Aleutians Sunday through Monday morning. The front tries to push eastward to the Central Aleutians Monday afternoon, but lingers over Kiska Island and Amchitka due to the strength and persistence of the ridge to the east. A second North Pacific front will lift to the Western Aleutians early Tuesday morning with more rain across the Western Chain through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long term forecast consists of general troughing across the Gulf and the breakdown of a persistent vertically stacked ridge over the Bering. The pattern across the west begins to deamplify and flatten/tilt eastward heading into Wednesday with the combination of upper level waves riding over and cutting into the ridge, and a relatively deep trough west of the western Aleutians encroaching on the ridge from the west. At the surface, the progression of collapsing the ridge will allow a front moving across the Western Aleutians to gain momentum Wednesday afternoon and move eastward, which will also introduce some relatively warmer air into the region. For the east, continuous troughing with an upper level low over the north-central Gulf will keep showery and gusty conditions going along the Gulf coast through late week as waves with associated vorticity advection rotate around the low. The global models show that the overall trough itself skirts eastward this weekend. Meanwhile, a digging trough works its way over the Aleutian Chain late this weekend, sending its associated surface low southeastward across the North Pacific by the start of next week. The GFS/EC's temperature anomalies suggest that the east stays well below average through the end of the long term with some moderation in surface temperatures for the west-central Bering.

-AM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds will continue periodically into this evening and diminish toward midnight.