Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lake, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A complex low over the Bering will undergo some consolidation today as it shifts over the Alaska Peninsula. The low will gradually weaken over the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday before much of its remaining energy shifts into Southeast Alaska as an open wave trough. A weaker wave of low pressure is moving into Southwest Alaska from the southern Bering this morning, which will result in scattered showers for much of the day today. Showers begin to diminish tomorrow as the wave departs the region, though continued light rain and snow will be possible at high elevation across the mountains. Conditions improve by Friday across Southwest Alaska as high pressure briefly becomes established.

The most notable feature over the west domain through the end of the week into the weekend will be a large frontal system pushing into the Aleutians from the North Pacific. The low has trended slightly northward with more recent model runs, and now guidance has not only the front moving along the Aleutian Chain but the center of the low as well. After briefly weakening into the mid 980 mb range on Thursday, cold air advection wrapping into the backside of the low will result in some re-amplification of the low as it tracks from near Nikolski on Friday at 975 mb, back into the mid 980 mb range on Saturday over or just north of the Alaska Peninsula. Expect widespread showers across the Bering over the weekend, including the Pribilof Islands (which could see snow).
Downstream of the low, persistent southeasterly flow associated with the low's front will bring renewed rain chances to Southwest Alaska over the weekend as well.

-BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Troughing over the eastern Bering looks to persist through early next week and favor an unsettled pattern, especially for coastal areas of southcentral Alaska. By Saturday morning, low pressure will be situated over the eastern portions of the Aleutian Chain.
A front from this low enters the southwestern Gulf Saturday and stalls in the northern Gulf Sunday. With a coastal ridge in place, strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds are expected in the Gulf as the front moves through. Peak winds look to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday along the northern Gulf coast and through the Barren Islands and Kamishak Gap. Additionally, chances for precipitation this weekend are high along the northern Gulf coast, Kodiak Island and eastern AKPen with upsloping winds. The heaviest precipitation looks to be Saturday for Kodiak Island and the eastern AKPen and Saturday night through Sunday for the northern Gulf Coast. There are still some slight timing differences with the progression of this front, details which will be resolved in the coming days. Outside of the coast, most of interior southcentral looks to be dry. Some light precip may spill over the Kenai Mountains and Chugach Front Range on Sunday. The main low looks to stall over the eastern Bering this weekend and slowly occlude. This will maintain chances for precipitation through the AKPen and Bristol Bay coast over the weekend into early next week.

After Sunday night model agreement wanes. Ensembles maintain troughing over the Bering with a potential ridge building over western Canada starting Monday. Should this hold, general southwest flow serves as a favorable track for additional lows to move from the Aleutian Chain through southcentral Alaska. Only some models currently hint at additional lows forming early next week, hence high uncertainty. Nonetheless, the pattern early next week will maintain favorable chances for precipitation for southern Alaska, especially for coastal southcentral and areas with upsloping winds.

-PA


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the period, with low level downslope flow keeping conditions mostly dry over Anchorage. A relatively light Turnagain Arm wind will redevelop this afternoon, causing winds to turn southeasterly at 10 to 15 kts, occasionally gusting to 20 kts, into the early overnight hours tomorrow.

-CW