Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lake, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

The large storm-force low pressure system in the eastern Bering Sea is continuing to produce gusty easterly winds across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Rain and snow will continue for Southwest Alaska through tonight, though precipitation has become more showery in nature as colder air continues to wrap in behind the system leading to minimal additional snow accumulation through this evening before tapering off overnight. As the storm continues to lift northward along the western Alaskan coast this evening, winds will pick back up and turn westerly- southwesterly for Southwest Alaska with sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph along the coast.

Southwesterly winds contribute to continued coastal flooding potential, with a Coastal Flood Advisory remaining in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta coast, particularly between Kipnuk and Kwigillingok coincident with high tide tonight and Monday evening.
A High Surf Advisory also remains in effect as the strong onshore push of winds through Bristol Bay will bring elevated water levels there as well for high tide tonight through early Monday morning. The main threat with this is likely to be high surf and potential for coastal erosion along the Bristol Bay coast.

Out west, a compact gale-force low tracks near the western Aleutians. With a cold air mass moving into the western Bering Sea, there is also potential for blowing snow for those islands this evening through Monday morning, however the showery nature of precipitation will likely make visibility reductions below one mile intermittent. The cold air mass spreads across the Bering Sea and into Southwest Alaska with the northward exit of the large low tonight, dropping temperatures into the 20s for Monday, the teens Monday night, and single digits by Tuesday night. Expect this colder air mass to also bring drier conditions across the region as well for the beginning of the week. The gale force low over the western Bering tracks into the northern Bering for Tuesday, spreading snow showers as far as the Pribilof Islands before diminishing by Wednesday morning.

-JH/Quesada

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an elongated upper level trough stretching from the Russian Far East across the Aleutians and Bering. This trough gets a little boost from passing shortwaves to reorient over Southwest Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska for midweek, before continuing its Eastward track into Canada by Thursday. An upper ridge building across the Western Aleutians Tuesday moves to extend across the Gulf of Alaska and Western Alaska into Northeast Russia through the end of the week.
Deterministic GFS and ECMWF carry the features and changes well through Thursday with the Canadian models joining up into the weekend.

A decaying surface low on the Southcentral coast spreads locally heavy rains along the coastal locations, with locally heavy snow further inland and over higher elevations through Wednesday. A second low over the Shumagin Islands brings mostly rain with snow over Bristol Bay from the Eastern Aleutians, Alaskan Peninsula and Kodiak Island through midweek, before moving over the Kenai Peninsula before dissipating over Prince William Sound Thursday.
Bands of snow progress across the Bering through Thursday. A well developed North Pacific low and fronts spreads snow changing to rain across the Western and Central Aleutians Wednesday and continues over The Bering, Southwest Alaska and the AKPEN by Friday. Gusty winds with gale force gusts work their way from the Central Aleutians over the AKPEN and Bering through Friday.

AVIATION

PANC...A secondary round of strong southerly winds ongoing is expected to slowly diminish as the day progresses. The higher end gusts as strong as 35 to 40 kts are not expected to persist for more than a few hours this morning, and gusts should quickly drop to 25 kts or lower by this afternoon, then go light and variable by this evening. Rain showers could intermittently move over the terminal and briefly cause ceilings to dip into MVFR range throughout the morning, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through this evening. There will be potential for fog and/or low stratus development after winds shut off tonight with possible MVFR conditions or lower returning.