Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glennallen, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 081346 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 446 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* Impactful storm system set to affect Southcentral Alaska Monday into Tuesday

* Winter Storm Watches issued for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, Western Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass, and Ernestine from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

Current satellite this morning shows mostly high clouds across Southcentral Alaska. However, where there are breaks in the clouds, low stratus and pockets of mist and fog have been able to form. Palmer, Portage, Gulkana, Eureka, and portions of the Western Kenai are contending with these lower cloud ceilings.
Kodiak will remain showery through today as a weak area of low pressure remains nearly stationary in the vicinity of the island.

Attention quickly turns to what will become an active period in the weather department for the new work week. An area of low pressure in the North Pacific will send its front into the southern Gulf of Alaska by tonight. The precipitation out ahead of the front reaches Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Western Prince William Sound late tonight into Monday morning.
Precipitation will likely start off as snow for places like Kodiak City, Seward, and Portage/Whittier. Warm air works in along the Gulf Coast Monday evening and Monday night which should allow precipitation to mix with and change over to rain. However, on the Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys, cold air at the surface could hang on into Tuesday morning. This would allow for a mix of snow and freezing rain to develop and even a period of plain freezing rain to develop. The question will be how much precipitation will make it over the mountains.

Comparing guidance, the RRFS guidance has been and continues to be the northern outlier regarding the storm track through the Gulf. This model continues to take the system over Montague Island and across the Susitna Valley Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GFS, European, and Canadian guidance all have the storm center farther south from the Southern Kenai Peninsula, to the Barren Islands.
This forecast package, like previous forecast packages, continues to advertise the farther south solution. This farther south solution is also the warmer solution too, which introduces the freezing rain potential across the area.

With that, and with increased confidence in impacts across portions of the forecast area, Winter Storm Watches have been issued. A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions has been issued to for Thompson Pass from 10AM AKST Monday morning through 4PM AKST Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will pick up through the Pass starting Monday morning. At the same time, a round of light snow will occur. This round of snow will taper off Monday afternoon. However, heavier snow is likely Monday night through Tuesday morning along with northeasterly wind gusts as high as 45 mph. A Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for Ernestine from 10AM AKST Monday morning through 10AM Tuesday morning for heavy mixed precipitation. On the north side of Thompson Pass, warmer air could work in aloft and allow freezing rain to mix in with snow Tuesday morning. Highest snowfall totals and ice totals will be along the north side of Thompson Pass with lower totals north towards Tonsina. A Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound from 10AM AKST Monday through 4PM AKST Tuesday. The main story here will be some snow at the onset that will transition to a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain and eventually to plain rain by late Tuesday morning as winds become turn from east-northeast to east- southeast by then. Speaking of winds, they could be quite strong, especially through Whittier and Eastern Turnagain Arm with gusts between 55 to 70 mph Tuesday morning. These winds diminish through Tuesday afternoon.

In addition to the strong winds through Whittier and Eastern Turnagain Arm, winds will also be gusty out of the northeast through the Matanuska Valley into Palmer and Wasilla Monday and Tuesday. Gusts will peak near 50 mph early Tuesday morning before winds begin to diminish through the rest Tuesday morning. There will also be strong northeasterly down-inlet winds, some of which may clip portions of the coastal Cook Inlet communities of the Western Kenai Peninsula Monday and Tuesday.

The storm winds down through Tuesday afternoon and evening as winds come down across the Gulf and gap winds relax across Southcentral. Additional precipitation is likely across the coast of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound Tuesday night into Wednesday as additional weak shortwaves lift across the Gulf. Stay tuned as the forecast is fine-tuned and updated with regards to the storm for Monday and Tuesday.
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