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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today..SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 20 kt.
Thu..N winds 10 kt.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt.
Fri..N winds 5 kt.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today..SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 20 kt.
Thu..N winds 10 kt.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt.
Fri..N winds 5 kt.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 282304 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 204 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS

The West Interior moderate snowfall remains expected tonight for 2 to 4 inches, locally heavy snowfall near Kaltag and at the Nulato Hills of 5 to 7 inches, and tapers Wednesday morning. Winds increase across the Alaska Range this afternoon and gust 70 to 80 mph over the Range, impacting parts of the Parks Highway and Richardson Highway south of Fort Greely through late tonight. Blowing snow is possible over the passes over the Dalton Highway in the south- central Brooks Range Wednesday. A range of Winter Weather and Wind headlines are in effect across the West Interior, Alaska Range and limited in the Brooks Range for these hazards and possible impacts.
Above normal temperatures through Saturday daytime persist before cooling closer to normal Sunday and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Upper levels, analysis and model discussion...

Low pressure at 988 mb currently moving out of the Gulf of Anadyr will continue to move southeastward to south of St Lawrence Island by Wednesday morning. Rotating through the larger cyclonic flow over the West Coast is a shortwave trough presently in southwest Alaska and lifting northward into the Yukon Delta this afternoon. Wrap around meso-precip bands have been observed on the Bethel radar and will bring a quick 3 to 6 hour period of heavy snowfall to West Interior locations this afternoon through late tonight. High-res deterministic and ensemble guidance has again converged on a more westerly band of snowfall compared to yesterday when the band was favored another 50 miles to the east. The heaviest snowfall is most likely along the Yukon River communities in the Lower Yukon and into the Middle Yukon. Upslope enhancement along the Nulato Hills, especially near Kaltag, are expected to aid in localized heavier snowfall this evening and tonight. A constricted pressure gradient eastward out of the precip shield over the AK Range aids in gap wind enhancement leading to very strong southerly winds and periods of blowing snow. The shortwave lifts northward into the western Brooks Range Wednesday morning and decreases impacts in the AK Range and West Interior by 0600 AKST Wednesday. As the shortwave moves offshore into the Chukchi Sea Wednesday afternoon, the last showers over the Northwest Arctic Coast and hills in the the Kobuk Valley decrease in coverage. Troughing over the Bering Sea from the stalled current maritime low pressure results in a closed mid-level low pressure over the Norton Sound Thursday into Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Moderate to heavy snowfall along the south-facing slopes of the Central Alaska Range, but mainly west of the Parks Highway near Cantwell, that has already fallen is expected to be picked up by increasing southerly winds starting this afternoon. Blowing snowfall is possible this afternoon and into late tonight, but the main impacts in the Alaska Range are likely to be very strong southerly winds. High res guidance shows the pressure gradient falling apart from 0300 to 0600 AKST Wednesday morning. This keeps the main timing threat for impacts from southerly winds gusting 70 to 80 mph to be early this evening to early overnight hours today. Above normal temperatures last through this work week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Three to six hours of heavy snowfall are expected along the immediate Yukon River and within thirty miles to the east in the Lower and Middle Valleys later today and into tonight. High res ensemble guidance shows a 60% chance of 1-3 hour period along this entire track of 1"/hr snowfall rates as the main precip bands pass overhead later today. In total, 2-4 inches remains expected in the current Kuskowim, Lower Yukon and Middle Yukon Valleys.
Within the Nulato Hills and Kaltag areas of the western half of the Middle Yukon Valley, upsloping enhancement is likely overnight to produce totals closer to 5-7 inches by Wednesday morning.
Post-precip, southerly winds gusting to 40 mph are expected along and east of the Yukon River later tonight, and are expected to result in areas of blowing snow into early Wednesday morning when those winds decrease as the shortwave lifts northward. Visibility down to 1/2 mile is possible. A range of Winter Weather Advisories and a Winter Storm Warning remain in effect for most of the West Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Snowfall enters the western and central Brooks Range after Midnight tonight. These zones are expected to see 1 to 3 inches of snowfall by early Wednesday morning. In the meantime, southerly winds increase by 3 AM AKST across the Range and last into Wednesday afternoon. For this combination, blowing snowfall on the passes over the Dalton Highway of the South-central Brooks Range keeps reduced visibility concerns around the north longer into Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Lingering showers last into the western Brooks Range through Wednesday, but should be fairly low impact. A return of Arctic Coastal freezing fog is likely again beginning Thursday as offshore southerly flow veers northerly for the immediate coastlines. Reduced visibilities would again be expected into Thursday night.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

A fairly quiet and low-impact weather pattern is expected for late Friday through next Monday. Continued above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday begin to cool under colder air advecting in from the east. By Saturday night, temperatures areawide are expected in the low single digit below zero to teens below zero. These near to slightly below normal temperatures continue Sunday into Monday. A low pressure over the Central Bering Sea keeps cyclonic onshore to shore parallel flow into the Yukon Delta and along the West Coast over the weekend. This would lead to light snow showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ819.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ828.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ830-852.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849-851.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-854-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.

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