Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 9:36 PM Moonrise 3:24 PM   Moonset 5:21 AM

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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 192138 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 138 PM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS

The upper pattern has several features of note this afternoon. An upper low over eastern Russia near the Bering Strait will continue to move north over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain in place across Interior Alaska through the weekend. Periods of light snow and gusty winds will continue to diminish along the West Coast tonight. Decent model consistency continues through the weekend with diverging solutions for mid to late next week. These differences have led to low forecast confidence along the West Coast from mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Much of Interior Alaska is being dominated by upper level high pressure.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry air sitting over the eastern half of the state. This has allowed for clear skies this afternoon. Weak energy lifting north over western portions of the Interior will continue to spread mid and high level cloud cover over that region. Temperatures look to remain mild, with 40s to 50s, and perhaps a few low 60s through the weekend. Next week, the upper ridge begins to break down, as an upper vort max lifts north across the Interior. This may bring a few light showers to the region for mid to late next week, along with slightly cooler temperatures by around 5 degrees F.

Flow along the North Slope will shift northwesterly as the upper low ejects across the Chukchi Sea and north of Alaska. Fairly quiet conditions are expected, with periods of fog and light snow through the weekend. Flow will return to the northeast by Monday and continue through mid to late next week. Winds will increase near 25 mph for Thursday into Friday. Low stratus and fog along with periods of light snow will be possible through the later half of the extended period. Temperatures look to cool through the weekend from 20s, with single digit to teens for highs Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then look to warm back into the teens and 20s for mid to late next week.

The area of most uncertainty continues to be along the West Coast.
Light precipitation should come to an end overnight as the upper low over eastern Russia lifts away from the area while high pressure builds in from the east. Did issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Bering Strait Coast as winds will increase Saturday through Sunday. Gusts near 55 mph will likely produce areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility under half a mile.
The gusty conditions look to subside Sunday afternoon and evening.
Attention then turns to the uncertainty in the forecast for early the mid next week. Model guidance develops an upper wave over the Yukon Delta region and lifts it north ahead of a strong upper low in the Bering Sea. The track and speed of the upper system is uncertain, with the ECMWF bringing it north over the Interior, while the GFS lifts in north along the West Coast. The ECMWF is pretty dry, while the GFS does have precipitation along the West Coast. By late week, a frontal boundary associated with the Bering Sea low will push into the West Coast. This will likely bring an increase in winds and precipitation chances along the West Coast.
The ECMWF is stronger with this frontal boundary and brings in a bit more precipitation than the GFS.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-851-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-815-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

Kawanak Pass entrance, Yukon River, Bering Sea, Alaska, Tide feet

Kwikluak Pass, Yukon River, Bering Sea, Alaska, Tide feet

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