Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kotlik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:41AMSunset 11:12PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 8:34 AM AKDT (16:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:16AMMoonset 2:01AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 358 Am Akdt Tue May 26 2020
Today..NE winds 10 kt becoming se. Seas 2 ft subsiding.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 358 Am Akdt Tue May 26 2020
Today..NE winds 10 kt becoming se. Seas 2 ft subsiding.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kotlik, AK
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location: 63.05, -163.38     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK69 PAFG 261448 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 648 AM AKDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Scattered to numerous showers now occuring across the Southern and Eastern Interior will spread to the Western and Northern Interior today and to the West Coast and Brooks Range late this afternoon into tonight, before diminishing to isolated to scattered showers on Wed, and just isolated showers on Thu. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in the NE and SW Interior today, a slight chance in the Northern and Western Interior on Wed, and a slight chance in the SE INterior on Thu.

Stratus and areas of dense fog along the Arctic Coast will persist into Thu, but thin in the afternoon and evening each day. Expect localized shower amounts to .25 inch today, but most areas will be less than .10. After today, similar conditions but showers decreasing in areal coverage. Temperature will remain at or below normal through Wed, then rise to above normal Thu, and remain above normal into the weekend.

Aloft . The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over Northern Alaska and NW Canada with a deep trough over the Bering Sea, Northern Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. Several short wave troughs will make their way from the Gulf of Alaska NW across Western Alaska over the next several days.

A short wave trough over Denali will move over McGrath this morning, over the Nulato Hills this afternoon, and then over the Noatak Valley tonight. Expect a broad area of showers under this low aloft, with a slight chance of thunderstorms developing this afternoon in the area trailing the low aloft as the sun causes low level warming.

A second short wave trough over Bristol Bay Coast will move to the Bering Strait to Anvik by 4pm Tue, to Point Hope to Northway by 4pm Wed, and then over the North Slope on Thu. Expect a round of scattered showers along this trough along with a slight chance of thunderstorms south of the Brooks Range on Wed.

A third short wave trough in the SE Bering Sea will move to Gambell to Cold Bay by 4am Wed, to the Bering Strait to the YK Delta by 4pm Wed, and to Wainwright to Bethel by 4pm Thu. Will see isolated to scattered showers with this trough.

Surface . High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist through Thu. A weak Arctic front from Kaktovik to Utqiagvik north will persist through Wed, and then move east. Light winds along with stratus and fog will persist along this front. Expect the fog to be most dense between midnight and noon each day.

Weak high pressure over the southern Chukchi Sea will move to the northern Chukchi Sea tonight then merge with the high further north.

A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Dawson to Ft Yukon to Noatak will move to Dawson to Arctic Village to Point Hope by 4pm Wed, and to Northway to Atigun Pass by 4pm Thu. Warmer air will spread west under this trough on Thu. This trough will be a focus for convection and expect a slight chance of thunderstorms near this trough through Thu. Expect S-SW winds 5-15 kt blowing into this trough today over the southern INterior, with higher gusts near Alaska Range Passes today. This trough is expected to move over the Alaska Range on Fri.

A 1000 mb low in the southeast Bering Sea will move near St Matthew Island as a 1006 mb low by 4pm Tue, and to the Gulf of Anadyr as a 1012 mb low by 4pm Wed, before continuing north. This will bring rain to southern Norton Sound today, to the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island tonight. This will cause north winds along the West Coast to turn more E-SE tonight and south on Wed.

DISCUSSION. At 00Z, models all verify 10-20 meters too low on height of the strong ridge located over Northern Alaska and NW Canada. Models show very similar patterns aloft through 4pm Thu, with differences increasing next weekend. Since heights initialize too low over Northern Alaska, for Tue and Wed expect temps to be slightly warmer, and conditions slightly drier and more stable than models would indicate over the area north of 65N.

850 mb temps cool a few degrees C Tue compared to Mon, and then rebounding a few degrees C on Wed, with a bigger increase on Thu and Fri. Expect surface temps today to be the same or slightly cooler, than Mon, then Wed expect a warming of 2-5F, and then another 5F increase to above normal on Thu, and then remaining well above normal into the weekend.

For precipitation, the NAM has a much more limited area of coverage than is currently occuring, and much more limited than the ECMF and GFS through Thu. The NAM also has much higher amounts. Given the broad area that showers are now occuring in, the GFS and ECMF reflect the areal coverage of showers better, but are still too low in pops through Tue night. Expect that the NAM high amounts reflect the maximum precip that will occur, but that the higher amounts will be very limited in areal scope. So for precip prefer the areal coverage show by the GFS/ECMF but with slightly higher pops through Tue night south of the Brooks Range. For precip amounts will use the GFS/ECMF, but use the NAM for just the Max showers amounts.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well. Models show similar solutions at the surface through 4pm Thu, with slight differences showing up over the weekend on the strength of the thermal trough over the Alaska Range.

Bottom line for models is, we will use a blend of the NAM/ECMF/GFS for temps/winds and use the GFS for precip areal coverage, but bump of pops 10-15% south of the Brooks range through Tue night, and use NAM max precip amounts for estimate of max amounts from the strongest showers.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4 . None.

FIRE WEATHER. A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Dawson to Ft Yukon to Noatak will move to Dawson to Arctic Village to Point Hope by 4pm Wed, and to Northway to Atigun Pass by 4pm Thu. Warmer air will spread west under this trough on Thu. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms will occur along this feature.

An upper level low over Denali will move over McGrath this morning, over the Nulato Hills this afternoon, and then over the Noatak Valley tonight. Expect a broad area of showers with wetting rain under this low aloft, with a slight chance of thunderstorms developing this afternoon in the area trailing the low aloft.

Temperature will remain at or below normal through Wed, then rise to above normal Thu, and remain above normal into the weekend. RH will remain above 40% most areas today and Wed, and then drop to near 30% Thu PM, with Min RH near 30% into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Rain fall amounts of between 0.25-1.00 inch southeast of Ft Yukon to Minchumina on Mon are causing sharp rises on streams and small rivers today in that area. Some rivers and stream will rise to near bankfull but do not expect flooding at this time.

North Slope Rivers are starting to break up, and with rising freezing levels, expect Brooks Range snowmelt to increase the next several days. Will need to monitor North Slope Rivers closely this week.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

JB MAY 20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAEM

Wind History from AEM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------W9SW10W12W17
G24
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Apoon Mouth, Yukon River, Norton Sound, Alaska
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Apoon Mouth
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 04:00 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:34 AM AKDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:11 PM AKDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.81.11.31.61.92.42.93.544.34.64.64.33.832.21.30.60.1-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska
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Pikmiktalik River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 04:01 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM AKDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:28 PM AKDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.81.11.41.622.433.64.14.64.954.84.33.52.61.70.80.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.