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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today..SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 20 kt.
Thu..N winds 10 kt.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt.
Fri..N winds 5 kt.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today..SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..N winds 20 kt.
Thu..N winds 10 kt.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt.
Fri..N winds 5 kt.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 102328 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 228 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Troughing builds over the Interior into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing multiple disturbances from the Pacific, which will make for a return to somewhat active weather for much of the state.
Strong winds and blowing snow expected along the West Coast, with multiple rounds for snow over the Alaska Range and through the Interior, some of which will also fall over the Eastern Brooks Range. Some down-sloping will cut down on snowfall amounts for Fairbanks and the central Tanana valley.

DISCUSSION

Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

The first of several disturbances is making its landfall along the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon, a 978mb low propagating along deep troughing that stretches back into the north-central Pacific and is pulling a stout moisture connection up to the state. To the west stout ridging is building over far eastern Russia, leading to very wavy meridional flow, which is expected to be the dominant upper level pattern for much of this week with ridging over eastern Russia/western Canada and troughing over the northeast Pacific bringing disturbances into the Gulf of Alaska and pushing moisture into and over the Alaska Range. Good ensemble agreement for this pattern with three to four separate low pressure systems, each deeper than the last, blasting into the Alaska and Kenai Peninsulas through Thursday. Their respective fronts are expected to bring precipitation into the Interior and north. These lows will also strengthen pressure gradients across the region, bringing stronger winds especially to the Brooks Range and Bering Sea.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Snow showers continue as cold air percolates into the region. A band of this ocean-induced snowfall is expected to continue through the Bering Strait and into St. Lawrence Island through the beginning of this week as northerly flow persists. As the pressure gradient over the Chukchi and Bering Seas increases again into the work week, north winds are expected to increase, bringing another period of blowing snow and reduced visibility. Storm-force gusts seem likely by Tuesday for Diomede and St. Lawrence Islands. This may also lead to accumulation of ice due to freezing spray. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for St. Lawrence Island and the tip of the Seward Peninsula beginning overnight and continuing through Wednesday. This may need to be extended in time. Elsewhere along the West Coast elevated winds will be possible as well, 25-35mph, especially along the coasts where some stronger gusts could be possible. Some blowing snow visibility reductions may be possible along the very edge of the Coast of the YK Delta, where northerly winds may come shooting down from the Bering Strait.
Some light snow accumulations possible for portions of the Western Interior through the day Monday as a front lifts off the Alaska Peninsula and pushes over the Interior. A couple inches or less expected.

Central and Eastern Interior...

As low pressure continues to push into the coastal Gulf of Alaska overnight, areas of precipitation are expected to push into the Alaska Range and spread over the Interior through the day tomorrow. Outside of orographically enhanced snowfall along the peaks of the eastern Alaska Range, a secondary locally high snowfall band should set up along an occluded front stretching from Kuskokwim Bay to the Yukon Flats, which will also benefit from air being orographically pushed along the slightly higher terrain north and east of Fairbanks. These enhancements should be enough to lead to 3-6 inches of snow for those areas in the higher elevation towards places like Stevens Village, Fort Yukon, and Beaver. Have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory both for snow totals and the potential for some blowing snow reducing visibility through Tuesday morning. For Fairbanks itself, downsloping winds are expected to pretty severely limit snowfall totals with this first round leading to only very light accumulations. In the eastern Alaska Range, warnings and advisories remain in effect though we have extended these headlines another 24 hours into midday Wednesday. While other areas in the interior may see a break or at least a lightening of snow in between Tuesday and Wednesday, much less of a break, if any, is expected in the mountains. The second push of snow to the Interior that develops Wednesday should bring some more snowfall accumulation, though confidence is not as high for totals at this time. However, a more southeasterly flow should bring a slightly better chance for snow to the Fairbanks area. These chances for precipitation will also arrive with a push of warmer air for the Interior, with highs rising into the single digits, except into the teens through the Central and Upper Tanana River valleys and into the 20s in the Alaska Range.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Pretty quiet conditions continue for the North Slope, with colder temperatures steadily building in. Some light snow is possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a front lifts through the area, mostly over the eastern portion of the area, with some light snowfall of a couple inches possible. North to northeast winds also build along this front, particularly along the Brooks Range as a larger synoptic pressure gradient tightens. Some patchy visibility reductions may be possible due to snow and blowing snow along the Dalton Highway and in Ambler but confidence is low in winds becoming strong enough for this potential at this point, so have opted to not issue any winter weather advisories with this forecast package. Temperatures will also stay pretty chilly here, especially along the North Slope as this area stays primarily north of a arctic front. Some areas along the Brooks Range may near Wind Chill headline criteria through Wednesday with slightly stronger winds than we have recently seen.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

The general pattern of extended troughing over the Gulf of Alaska, tying in Pacific moisture blasting up to the state should continue through much of the work week. Portions of the Interior may see at least light precipitation through Friday. Persisting CAA and northerly flow over the Chukchi Sea and into the Bering Sea, the band of snowfall there may linger. Cold temperatures may linger across and north of the Brooks Range as the troughing the Gulf of Alaska connects to an arctic low over the Canadian Arctic Innuitian Region. This pattern is expected to eventually break down towards the end of the week and into the weekend as global model patterns show the larger pattern breaking into more zonal flow, which could drastically change the pattern for central and northern Alaska, but confidence is low as ensemble spread becomes much higher past Friday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Northerly gales will cause high waves from Point Hope to the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island Mon through Wed. This combined with temperatures in the teens will cause freezing spray in the Bering Strait, at Diomede and Savoonga Sun night through Wed.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832>834.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-806-816-817-850-853-854- 856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ804-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-853-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.

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Apoon Mouth
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Mon -- 05:30 AM AKST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:19 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:22 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:13 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:42 PM AKST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Apoon Mouth, Yukon River, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Pikmiktalik River entrance
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Mon -- 05:46 AM AKST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:19 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:14 PM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:59 PM AKST     4.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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