Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Savoonga, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winds shift from west to southwest tonight with areas of smoke and haze becoming focused across the northern interior by Monday morning.

- Interior high temps cool from around 80F Sunday evening to near or below 70F on Tuesday then warming back to near 80F by Friday.

- Light west-southwest winds on Sunday increase Monday and Tuesday, especially across the Yukon Flats where gusts to 25 mph are possible Monday afternoon and 30 mph on Tuesday. Gap winds increase to around 25 mph on Monday too.

- Slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly across the higher elevations on Sunday with better chances Monday, except for perhaps the Yukon Flats.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High temperatures for most interior locations cool from the 60s and 70s Sunday afternoon into the 50s by Tuesday.

- Increasing south winds across St. Lawrence Island and the West Coast through Tuesday night before subsiding on Wednesday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible through the Bering Strait tonight and across the Norton Sound on Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase across the southern interior Sunday afternoon then spread along the west coast on Monday through Tuesday night. Between 1/3 and 2/3 inches of rain is most likely with local amounts greater than 1 inch mainly along the southern Seward Pen.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- South-southwesterly offshore winds and above normal temperatures in the 60s or even low 70s continue through midweek.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening from Anaktuvuk Pass eastward across the North Slope.

- Southwest gusts of 30-40 mph Sunday night through Monday night along the Northwest Arctic Coast between Point Hope and Wainwright.

- A few chances for light rain Monday night through Thursday before onshore flow and low stratus/fog return late this week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Southwest flow between a 535dm low near Wrangel Island and a 575dm ridge near Yakutat results in an influx of Bering Sea moisture.
Satellite and radar imagery indicates showers and thunderstorms building across southern portions of the west-central interior Sunday afternoon. This activity diminishes overnight before flaring up farther northeast Monday afternoon, including north of the Brooks Range east of Anaktuvuk Pass. An area of more steady rainfall moves onto the West Coast during the day on Monday through Tuesday before lifting north along the West Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Moderate rainfall amounts mainly around 0.5" are forecast for areas between the YK Delta and the western Brooks Range with higher amounts >1" possible along south-facing slopes of the Seward Pen.
Ridging shifts from southeast to northwest for the middle of the week and should build to around 574 dm over the western Brooks Range by Thursday evening before lifting north across the Arctic Ocean.
One last fly in the ointment is gap winds through the AK Range with latest model guidance indicating gusts up to around 30 mph, primarily contained within the gaps due to a westerly component to winds.

FIRE WEATHER
Over the next 24 hours a ridge expands its footprint across eastern Alaska and into Canada, with moist southwest flow becoming more pronounced along the western coast later tonight.
While we are seeing active fire behavior driven by warm and dry weather for most of the area, expecting the western zones to begin moderating as widespread wetting rains becoming more prevalent Monday into Tuesday. Peaking into the central and eastern interior, wet thunderstorms and showers are anticipated which will also help moderate fire activity, more so Monday. Expecting cooler temps, higher minimum RH, and better RH recoveries into Wednesday before weak ridging returns across the state. Despite improving RH, southwest winds increase Monday night and Tuesday for valley locations across the western and northern interior. By Wednesday and Thursday we should see seasonable temperatures and drying from south to north that continues through the end of the workweek. Light east- northeast winds may overspread the northern interior Friday and Saturday as ridging builds across the Beaufort Sea.

HYDROLOGY
No concerns at this time.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Agreement amongst extended range model guidance has improved over the past day with ridging looking to prevail across much of Alaska.
Even though that's the case, ridging magnitude isn't particularly noteworthy and is similar to ridging that traverse the state over the weekend. Therefore above normal temperatures are expected, but with sufficient cooling overnight to make smoke and air quality the primary concerns, but winds are light and several of the larger fires should be doused with rain over the coming days. The next forecast challenge is ridge breakdown and even though details are murky, there seems to be a good signal for a trough pivoting around the Bering Sea low Friday night or Saturday. Ensembles show a low to medium chance for sufficient moisture/convergence for thunderstorms across the interior on Saturday. However, there's a better ensemble signal for the Bering Sea low to lift north allowing for more zonal flow north of ridging across the Gulf of Alaska. If it materializes then westerly flow would bring potential for a more prolonged period of lighter rainfall by the end of the extended period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PCs. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-810. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-856>858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.