Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stebbins, AK

FXAK69 PAFG 032254 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 254 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

SYNOPSIS... A sub-960 mb low is spinning south of St. Matthew Island this afternoon, resulting in gusty east-southeasterly winds in the vicinity of Norton Sound and Seward Peninsula. Otherwise, quiet weather with mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures continues across the Interior for much of the next week. Cloud cover gradually increases to mostly cloudy skies by Sunday night implying a transition to smaller diurnal temperature ranges. The most likely time frame for precipitation appears to be early next week as the Bering Sea low makes landfall in the Gulf of Alaska. At this time, an elevation dependent rain/snow mix is expected and amounts appear light.

DISCUSSION
Upper Level and Surface Analysis
The deep Bering Sea low becomes the dominant feature controlling Alaskan weather as it slowly shifts east over the Gulf of Alaska by early next week. While the low pressure is currently making steady eastward progress, guidance agrees that the system is expected to slow considerably tonight and Friday as it moves over Bristol Bay. Models are in good agreement that this 950-960mb low system will stall out over the area before weakening and shifting east to near Kodiak Island late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Weak Chinook flow continues until Sunday when flow becomes more easterly.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clear and cold mornings continue across the Interior with seasonably warm temps expected through the short-term. Dry weather is expected until Monday or Tuesday next week when the current Bering Sea low moves onshore across south- central Alaska. Light Chinook flow keeps gap winds elevated through Sunday morning with sub-advisory gusts up to 45 mph expected at this time. With the Bering Sea low possibly stalling over Bristol Bay, the gap wind potential along the Parks Highway should be monitored since the modeled pressure gradient is greater there. Additionally, Antler Creek gusted to 45 mph just before noon and should increase this evening and overnight with the modeled pressure gradient before subsiding Friday night/Saturday morning. So far winds through Isabel Pass have peaked at 35 mph and the gradient/direction isn't as favorable.

West Coast and Western Interior... A strong Bering Sea low tracks just north of St. Paul Island and brings a warm front with rain showers and east-southeast gusts up to 55 mph tonight for the Bering Sea Islands and coastal portions of the YK Delta. The strongest wind gusts are expected over Saint Lawrence Island and over the water, while inland gusts up to 45 mph mainly at higher elevations. There will be elevated water levels near Hooper Bay (1-4 ft above MHHW)
and on St. Lawrence Island and high wave heights but not expecting coastal flooding due to offshore flow. Total rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are expected by Friday evening, highest in the Nulato Hills. Winds will gradually weaken overnight and through the day on Friday as the storm gradually shifts eastward towards Bristol Bay.
This low eventually spins into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday morning.
Winds will back northerly over the Bering Strait and west coast and remain gusty through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range....A weak low pressure near Point Utqiagvik results in northwest onshore flow across the western shoreline and southerly offshore flow across the eastern shoreline.
This implies stratus and fog across the west and warm/dry conditions across the east. This low lifts north and flow gradually backs easterly across the entire North Slope by Friday morning. Above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation prevails throughout the forecast period.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7... The strong Bering Sea low shifts east over the Gulf of Alaska early next week. There's a chance for a period of steady rain or snow mainly across the eastern Interior next Monday/Tuesday as a warm front tries to lift north over the AK Range, though it remains low confidence. Otherwise, we will be monitoring another potential Bering Sea low as we get to Thursday of next week. As of right now, this low is progged to track east across the Aleutians and not impact the west coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Easterly winds Thursday and Friday back to northerly winds Sunday and Monday. Easterly gales are currently affecting St. Lawrence Island and are expected to continue through the night before diminishing across the Norton Sound on Friday. Minor sea rises of 1-2 feet and high surf are expected for Gambell, Savoonga, and Hooper Bay.

HYDROLOGY...No concerns.
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