DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 547 dam low over Southwest Alaska with a departing upper level ridge, now over the Yukon and NW Territory, with heights around 572 dam. A cold front is tracking east, with that front currently over the Central Interior. There is another separate cold front over the Arctic, with moderate rainfall extending W-E along that front. A thermal low persists over the E Brooks Range.

Model and Forecast Discussion...
The models are fairly well clustered over the next few days, but there are some uncertainties regarding the strength of a wraparound band of rainfall on Saturday arcing from the Central Brooks Range down to the S Interior around Fairbanks. The ECMWF and Canadian models are notably stronger with that feature, with heavier rainfall extending all the way down to Fairbanks. Given the current strength of this low, this seems reasonable, so this forecast will trend wetter. Also, it looks fairly reasonable that the same feature will cause sufficient height falls/surface pressure falls for a switch to all snow over parts of the N Slope and Arctic coast Sat and Sat night, which we will also trend towards.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rainfall will shift east tonight along a cold front, with southwest winds behind this front bringing in much cooler air with it. There will be some breaks in rainfall early Saturday, then it will fill back in as showers in the afternoon over most of the Interior, with showers continuing into Sunday morning. It will be briefly drying out Sunday evening with more rainfall moving in Monday. Saturday looks like a fairly "raw" day with blustery southwest winds to go along with the afternoon showers and temps struggling out of the 50s. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this weekend right along the ALCAN border, but right now, it looks pretty meagre.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain and showers will wrap around a departing low, favoring the Yukon Valley and the Norton Sound region, as well as the Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys, through Saturday. High elevation snow above a couple thousand feet in the Brooks Range can also be expected as colder air wraps around the low center. It will be briefly drying out Saturday night and Sunday as the low shifts east, but more rainfall shifts inland Sunday night and early Monday, along with near gale force north winds down the Bering Strait Sunday night and Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rainfall will be turning into accumulating snowfall for parts of the Arctic Coast and N Slope this weekend, with the best chance for snowfall from Prudhoe Bay to Toolik Field Station to the Central Brooks Range. Several inches of snowfall is likely over the higher passes, with a skiff to 2 inches for lower elevations near the coast. Moderate to heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely, as well, before the turnover to mixed snowfall later on Saturday. Snow and rain is tapering off Sunday night, with high pressure persisting along with northeast winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Broad upper level troughing will be in place Monday night and Tuesday with cooler temps and showers persisting into Wednesday.
The latter half of the week will see more wet weather moving into the West Coast as Bering fronts shift inland, which will keep temps running slightly below seasonal norms.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
A cold front sweeping east will shift all warm air into Canada with wetting rains moving across the final dry spots of the Interior, the Yukon Flats and SE Interior, this evening and tonight. Showers and rainfall will persist through the weekend along with temps below seasonal norms. The only slight chance for thunderstorms will be along the ALCAN this weekend, with no thunderstorms forecast early next week. Expect general southwest winds and blustery conditions for Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
1-2 inches of rainfall is expected over the Central Brooks Range through this weekend, which will push some rivers draining into the arctic to near action-stage this weekend, including the Sag River. All rivers draining the Brooks Range will see rapid rises, however, including the Koyukuk and Alatna.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.