Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nome, AK
July 2, 2024 9:49 PM AKDT (05:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:26 AM Sunset 11:41 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
PKZ805 Moses Point To Sledge Island Out To 15 Nm- 214 Pm Akdt Tue Jul 2 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon - .
Tonight - SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
Wed - SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
Wed night - SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
Thu - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
Thu night - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri night - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat - SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sun - S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
PKZ800
No data
No data
FXAK69 PAFG 022126 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 126 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front over the NW Arctic Chukchi coast will continue to move east for the next few days. This will bring a pattern shift with gradually cooling temps, blustery southwest winds, and increasing rain chances. The current forecast looks fairly wet for most of the Mainland for the 4th of July. Fires will be prone to the southwest winds the next couple days, but after that, rain will be moving over a vast majority of them, so smoke and air quality should improve vastly for most locations after today.
DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a very narrow upper ridge axis over the center of the Mainland stretching from the Norton Sound to the E Interior, with the center of that ridge around 570 dam. There is a 553 dam upper low over the western Gulf of AK. There is a 534 dam mobile low moving east from E Siberia. There is a departing 523 dam arctic low over the Canadian Archipelago. A subtle shortwave trough is traversing over the ridge axis across the Yukon Flats and Fortymile.
Model Discussion...
The numerical models remain fairly tightly clustered with the general pattern and timing of the front moving in from Siberia, and its eastward track by Thursday. More rainfall coming in behind this leading front is still expected for the 4th, along with strong southwest winds preceding it and behind it. A NAM nest blend was favored to capture the strong southwest flow through Thu. A blend of models was favored for precipitation timing and the general trend of cooling temps after today.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Fortymile and parts of the Tanana Valley this afternoon and eastern Interior, but overall, it'll be dry with warmer temps over the S Interior from yesterday, and still warm over the N Interior. Southwest winds will be 10 to 15 mph over most of the Interior, 15 to 25 over the N Interior with some gusts to 30+ over the Yukon Flats northward.
Wednesday is breezier with gusts to 25 mph over the Interior, and close to 40 to 45 mph over the N Interior N of the White Mtns.
Rain is already ongoing over the Upper Koyukuk and transitions south through the day, reaching the S Interior by the afternoon and evening. Rainfall will be generally light and will favor upslope areas in westerly flow. Periods of light rainfall continue into the 4th and then lots of subtropical moisture will bring in widespread moderate rain to the entire Interior Thursday afternoon and evening. It looks wet, cool and blustery, quite a change from last month. Rain will likely continue as on/off showers through the latter half of Friday. Temperatures are around ten degrees below seasonal norms by the end of the week for most of the area.
Rainfall totals will be 0.50 to 1.50 inches through Friday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong gale force front will shift inland this evening from Norton Sound northward. This front will bring a continuous period of southwest winds to 25 to 35 mph and periods of rainfall through the weekend. Rainfall amounts will be 2 to 4 inches over the SW Brooks Range with a general 1 to 2 inches elsewhere, by late weekend. In addition, expect elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet and high wave action along the West Coast, from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast. Temps are trending down quite a bit through the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph and rainfall with a front will reach the E Arctic and Brooks Range by tonight. Mountain gaps in the W and Central Brooks Range will see wind gusts to 50 mph. For N Slope and Arctic coast standards, there will be fairly moderate to heavy rain at times. There will be a break in rainfall with intermittent showers Wednesday night into Thursday before more rainfall commences Friday into Saturday. Rainfall amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches over the W brooks Range to 0.5 to 1 inch elsewhere, with 1 to 2 inches over the E Brooks Range.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Friday, global ensemble clusters are all depicting a general west-southwest pattern over the West Coast with troughs overtopping a strong 594 subtropical high over the Central NPAC.
This means it will be cooler and wetter for the Mainland through the weekend. Thereafter, as usual, divergence begins as some model clusters and ensembles want to amplify the flow as a cutoff NPAC low gets caught up into the broader scale pattern early next week. That could bring the Mainland back to a fairly typical trough out west and southerly flow aloft out east. Either way, cool through the weekend and then maybe some moderation for the E Interior next week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southwest winds to gale force will bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast beginning Tue and lasting into late week.
FIRE WEATHER
Southwest winds are gusting up to 30 knots this afternoon across the W Interior ahead of a front moving into the NW Arctic. Clouds over the S Interior will continue this afternoon with some sun trying to poke through. Any wet isolated thunderstorms look relegated to the E Interior closer to the ALCAN, with general showers elsewhere into this evening.
Otherwise, significant fire weather conditions continue into this evening which is drying back out some with increased southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph over most of the Interior, and 15 to 20 mph over the N Interior, and 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph over the Yukon Flats and Upper Koyukuk Valley. Critical fire weather conditions continue over the northern half of the Interior, as afternoon temps will be around 75 to 80, and minimum RH in the upper 20s to near 30 %, thus a red flag warning will continue in effect for the N Interior zones from the Dalton Hwy east. There is no change in thinking here, with the strongest core of winds being north of the White Mtns, but it will be gusty from the southwest pretty much everywhere with drying and enhanced mixing this afternoon.
The gradient continues to increase overnight, thus winds will only weaken partially and likely remain mixed out from the Fairbanks area northward. Winds on Wednesday are stronger yet, with widespread 15 to 20 mph, and 20 to 25 mph and gusts to near 45 mph over the Yukon Flats and Dalton Highway corridor, and into the S Brooks Range slopes. However, temps are falling and precipitation will be possible by Wednesday afternoon with rain, so minimum RH looks to be higher, into the upper 30s to mid 40s % range.
The onset of wetting rains looks fairly low through Wednesday midday, with increasing chances by Wednesday evening and overnight, and high chances on Thursday and Thursday night. The lone holdout will be the Yukon Flats which will see downslope drying and little in the form of rainfall until maybe Thu night and this would be brief though.
HYDROLOGY
Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are slowly rising as warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt and glacial melt.
Beginning next week around Wednesday, heavy rainfall will move across the W Brooks Range with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through next weekend, with 0.75 to 1.5 inches over parts of the Interior.
Expect river rises with this amount of water across the Mainland.
Expect significant rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range including, but not limited to, the Wulik, Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams. Do not think with recent dry weather though that flooding will be a problem.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ911-932-933.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>806-812-816-817-850>854-857-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 126 PM AKDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front over the NW Arctic Chukchi coast will continue to move east for the next few days. This will bring a pattern shift with gradually cooling temps, blustery southwest winds, and increasing rain chances. The current forecast looks fairly wet for most of the Mainland for the 4th of July. Fires will be prone to the southwest winds the next couple days, but after that, rain will be moving over a vast majority of them, so smoke and air quality should improve vastly for most locations after today.
DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a very narrow upper ridge axis over the center of the Mainland stretching from the Norton Sound to the E Interior, with the center of that ridge around 570 dam. There is a 553 dam upper low over the western Gulf of AK. There is a 534 dam mobile low moving east from E Siberia. There is a departing 523 dam arctic low over the Canadian Archipelago. A subtle shortwave trough is traversing over the ridge axis across the Yukon Flats and Fortymile.
Model Discussion...
The numerical models remain fairly tightly clustered with the general pattern and timing of the front moving in from Siberia, and its eastward track by Thursday. More rainfall coming in behind this leading front is still expected for the 4th, along with strong southwest winds preceding it and behind it. A NAM nest blend was favored to capture the strong southwest flow through Thu. A blend of models was favored for precipitation timing and the general trend of cooling temps after today.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Fortymile and parts of the Tanana Valley this afternoon and eastern Interior, but overall, it'll be dry with warmer temps over the S Interior from yesterday, and still warm over the N Interior. Southwest winds will be 10 to 15 mph over most of the Interior, 15 to 25 over the N Interior with some gusts to 30+ over the Yukon Flats northward.
Wednesday is breezier with gusts to 25 mph over the Interior, and close to 40 to 45 mph over the N Interior N of the White Mtns.
Rain is already ongoing over the Upper Koyukuk and transitions south through the day, reaching the S Interior by the afternoon and evening. Rainfall will be generally light and will favor upslope areas in westerly flow. Periods of light rainfall continue into the 4th and then lots of subtropical moisture will bring in widespread moderate rain to the entire Interior Thursday afternoon and evening. It looks wet, cool and blustery, quite a change from last month. Rain will likely continue as on/off showers through the latter half of Friday. Temperatures are around ten degrees below seasonal norms by the end of the week for most of the area.
Rainfall totals will be 0.50 to 1.50 inches through Friday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong gale force front will shift inland this evening from Norton Sound northward. This front will bring a continuous period of southwest winds to 25 to 35 mph and periods of rainfall through the weekend. Rainfall amounts will be 2 to 4 inches over the SW Brooks Range with a general 1 to 2 inches elsewhere, by late weekend. In addition, expect elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet and high wave action along the West Coast, from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast. Temps are trending down quite a bit through the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph and rainfall with a front will reach the E Arctic and Brooks Range by tonight. Mountain gaps in the W and Central Brooks Range will see wind gusts to 50 mph. For N Slope and Arctic coast standards, there will be fairly moderate to heavy rain at times. There will be a break in rainfall with intermittent showers Wednesday night into Thursday before more rainfall commences Friday into Saturday. Rainfall amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches over the W brooks Range to 0.5 to 1 inch elsewhere, with 1 to 2 inches over the E Brooks Range.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Friday, global ensemble clusters are all depicting a general west-southwest pattern over the West Coast with troughs overtopping a strong 594 subtropical high over the Central NPAC.
This means it will be cooler and wetter for the Mainland through the weekend. Thereafter, as usual, divergence begins as some model clusters and ensembles want to amplify the flow as a cutoff NPAC low gets caught up into the broader scale pattern early next week. That could bring the Mainland back to a fairly typical trough out west and southerly flow aloft out east. Either way, cool through the weekend and then maybe some moderation for the E Interior next week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southwest winds to gale force will bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast beginning Tue and lasting into late week.
FIRE WEATHER
Southwest winds are gusting up to 30 knots this afternoon across the W Interior ahead of a front moving into the NW Arctic. Clouds over the S Interior will continue this afternoon with some sun trying to poke through. Any wet isolated thunderstorms look relegated to the E Interior closer to the ALCAN, with general showers elsewhere into this evening.
Otherwise, significant fire weather conditions continue into this evening which is drying back out some with increased southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph over most of the Interior, and 15 to 20 mph over the N Interior, and 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph over the Yukon Flats and Upper Koyukuk Valley. Critical fire weather conditions continue over the northern half of the Interior, as afternoon temps will be around 75 to 80, and minimum RH in the upper 20s to near 30 %, thus a red flag warning will continue in effect for the N Interior zones from the Dalton Hwy east. There is no change in thinking here, with the strongest core of winds being north of the White Mtns, but it will be gusty from the southwest pretty much everywhere with drying and enhanced mixing this afternoon.
The gradient continues to increase overnight, thus winds will only weaken partially and likely remain mixed out from the Fairbanks area northward. Winds on Wednesday are stronger yet, with widespread 15 to 20 mph, and 20 to 25 mph and gusts to near 45 mph over the Yukon Flats and Dalton Highway corridor, and into the S Brooks Range slopes. However, temps are falling and precipitation will be possible by Wednesday afternoon with rain, so minimum RH looks to be higher, into the upper 30s to mid 40s % range.
The onset of wetting rains looks fairly low through Wednesday midday, with increasing chances by Wednesday evening and overnight, and high chances on Thursday and Thursday night. The lone holdout will be the Yukon Flats which will see downslope drying and little in the form of rainfall until maybe Thu night and this would be brief though.
HYDROLOGY
Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are slowly rising as warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt and glacial melt.
Beginning next week around Wednesday, heavy rainfall will move across the W Brooks Range with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through next weekend, with 0.75 to 1.5 inches over parts of the Interior.
Expect river rises with this amount of water across the Mainland.
Expect significant rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range including, but not limited to, the Wulik, Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams. Do not think with recent dry weather though that flooding will be a problem.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ911-932-933.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>806-812-816-817-850>854-857-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for PAOM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for PAOM
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for PAOM
Wind History graph: AOM
(wind in knots)
Nome/Fairbanks,AK
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