Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nome, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

-An organized shortwave will bring numerous rain and snow showers across the area Monday evening through Tuesday. Expect most of these showers to fall as rain, but some snow is possible at higher elevations and overnight into Tuesday. Areas of the White Mountains may see a quick 3 to 4 inches of snow. Total precip amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch are possible, even in Fairbanks.

-Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes will continue through this evening. Gusts will be around 30 mph.

-High temperatures will be in the 50s across the Tanana Valley with mostly 40s elsewhere.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-A few rain showers will persist from the Seward Peninsula south through this week with mostly clear skies to the north

-Northerly winds through the Bering Strait and over St. Lawrence Island will increase again on Monday with sustained winds around 25 mph persisting through next weekend.

-High temperatures will be mainly in the 30s near the coast and in the 40s and 50s in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-CLear skies will persist across the Arctic Coast with good visibility despite east winds sustained around 25 mph. Winds will diminish tomorrow but restrengthen on Tuesday and persist through Thursday.

-Lows will be mainly in the single digits with highs in the teens along the coast and in the 20s in the Brooks Range.

-The Brooks Range will be mainly dry under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies through Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A persistent pattern continues across Northern Alaska as a vertically stacked 998 mb low spins near Nunivak Island with southerly flow to the east. A strong vertically stacked high near 80 degrees N to the north of Wrangel Island continues to bring east winds to the Arctic Coast. Very little change is expected in the broad scale pattern through Wednesday aside from the low near Nunivak Island being replaced on Tuesday by another low moving east from the Aleutians.

A number of small features within the broad pattern will cause changes to sensible weather though, with the main feature being a strong shortwave aloft with associated precipitation that will move north over the Alaska Range on Monday, bringing widespread showers and locally heavy rain and snow showers to most of the central and eastern Interior. Stronger model solution close off the surface low just east of Delta Junction and move it northeast while weaker solutions close off the low further east over the Alcan Border. Either way, expect some heavy rain and snow showers from Manley Hot Springs to Nenana to Fairbanks to Salcha Monday evening. As the system moves north, 3 to 4 inches of snow are possible in the White Mountains, especially if the surface low closes off further to the west. Vorticity maxima aloft and convective allowing models now also support an evening of heavy showers, with liquid equivalent amounts upwards of one quarter inch possible in isolated areas. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for this. Local creeks and streams full of snowmelt may see some quick rises in the heavy rain showers Monday evening.
The system will move north and weaken rapidly on Tuesday as southerly downslope flow over the Alaska Range kicks in by Tuesday morning, drying out the Tanana Valley. Models have ramped up the gradient across the Alaska Range Tuesday and Tuesday night. South winds through the passes will likely approach advisory criteria (gusts to 50 mph). Would like to see a couple more models runs before issuing any advisories as ensembles still aren't super enthusiastic about these winds.

FIRE WEATHER
After near Red Flag conditions at Delta Junction yesterday, conditions have moderated significantly today and will continue to remain moderated through the week. With widespread precipitation expected Monday-Tuesday across most snow free areas in the Interior, minimum relative humidity will be above 30% and in most areas above 40% until Wednesday when areas across the Upper Tanana Valley may dip to around 25%. Winds through Alaska Range Passes Tuesday and Wednesday may gust to 50 mph, but will be bringing in more moist air from the Gulf of Alaska. High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Models are in good agreement that a stronger low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday and remain there through Saturday. Depending on the exact positioning, this could be more favorable for backdoor precipitation getting into the Interior and working it's way west over the West Coast. With broad troughing persisting, expect continued below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for this time of year. High pressure will persist over the Arctic.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.